000 AXGM70 PGUM 080352 CCA DGTGUM PMZ171-172-173-174-181-190600- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 PM CHST TUE FEB 05 2013 ...VERY DRY WEATHER IS AFFECTING THE MARSHALL ISLANDS AND PARTS OF CHUUK STATE... SYNOPSIS... ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN. STRONG WINTER-TIME HIGH PRESSURE HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...AND DRY WEATHER PERSISTS BETWEEN ABOUT 7 AND 25 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE FROM 150 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE ALL THE WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE DATE LINE. CLIMATE MODELS INDICATE THIS ENSO-NEUTRAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS...POSSIBLY INTO APRIL. MODELS INDICATE VERY LITTLE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MAJURO AND MOST NORTHERN ATOLLS OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS IN THE COMING WEEKS. MODELS ALSO SHOW MOSTLY DRY WEATHER STRETCHING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CHUUK STATE. SERIOUS DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR ATOLLS OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS FROM MAJURO NORTHWARD...INCLUDING EBEYE...ENEWETAK... WOTJE...AND UTIRIK. ATOLLS SOUTH OF MAJURO WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE DRY SEASON TYPE WEATHER...BUT SHOULD RECEIVE HEAVIER TRADE-WIND SHOWERS AT TIMES IN THE COMING WEEKS. WEATHER AND RAINFALL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR PARTS OF THE FEDERATED STATES ON MICRONESIA...ESPECIALLY CHUUK AND YAP STATES. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS... MAJURO... RAINFALL WILL BE MINIMAL IN THE COMING 10 DAYS AT LEAST...AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL LATE MARCH OR APRIL. STRONG WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES WILL BE NEEDED TO AVOID THE DEPLETION OF WELLS...RESERVOIRS AND CATCHMENTS. AS OF 5 FEBRUARY 2013...MAJURO RESERVOIR CONTAINS 9.947 MILLION GALLONS OF WATER... OR LESS THAN ONE THIRD CAPACITY. ATOLLS NORTH OF MAJURO... RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH PERHAPS A QUARTER TO HALF INCH TOTAL THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. CONSERVATION MEASURES WILL BE NEEDED TO AVOID THE DEPLETION OF WELLS AND CATCHMENTS. ATOLLS SOUTH OF MAJURO... DRY SEASON CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND THE MORE SIGNIFICANT TRADE-WIND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF ABOUT 5N. RAINFALL WILL BE VARIABLE BUT HEAVIER IN THE COMING WEEKS WITH PERHAPS UP TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA... WEATHER AND RAINFALL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR OTHER PARTS OF THE FEDERATED STATES ON MICRONESIA...ESPECIALLY CHUUK AND YAP STATES. KOSRAE AND POHNPEI HAVE RECEIVED SUFFICIENT RAINFALL THROUGH JANUARY AND THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY. SOME DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS IS POSSIBLE ON SMALLER ISLANDS AND ATOLLS WHERE RAINFALL IS SPARSE. THE HEALTH OF FOOD CROPS SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED...AND FOOD ASSISTANCE MAY BE NECESSARY IF DAMAGE TO PLANTS AND FRUITS IS IRREVERSIBLE. WATER CATCHMENTS SHOULD BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY IN THE COMING WEEKS. CLIMATE SUMMARY... THE ENSO-NEUTRAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE SUMMER... AS A RESULT...RAINFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY APRIL FOR THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS AND BY MAY FOR THE NORTHERN ISLANDS. SOME JANUARY RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS... THROUGH JANUARY 31 THROUGH FEBRUARY 4 MARSHALL ISLANDS MAJURO... 2.42 1.08 KWAJALEIN... 1.22 0.00 UTIRIK... 1.91 0.91 WOTJE... 0.42 0.00 CHUUK STATE FANANU... 3.10 0.64 LUKUNOR... 5.05 0.16 LOSAP... 4.35 0.05 PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... THE VERY DRY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS ALSO CAUSING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF MICRONESIA ALONG WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS... MAJURO... COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A HEAVIER SHOWER ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHEAST COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. ATOLLS NORTH OF MAJURO... COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO LOCAL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. SHEAR-LINE ACTIVITY COULD HELP PRODUCE RAINFALL AT TIMES IN THE COMING WEEKS...BUT THAT CAN NOT BE COUNTED ON. ATOLLS SOUTH OF MAJURO... COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR MOST ATOLLS SOUTH OF MAJURO. RAINFALL WILL BE VARIABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS AS IS TYPICAL WITH DRY SEASON WEATHER. CONVERGENCE OF NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS SHOULD BRING HEAVIER RAINS BY MARCH. FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA... CHUUK STATE... COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE VARIABLE RAINFALL FOR AREAS BETWEEN 5N AND 10N FROM 150E TO 155E. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THESE AREAS. RAINFALL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATER RATIONING REQUIREMENTS. OTHER IMPACTS... THE JANUARY 24TH CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREA IS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF 5 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE...FROM 140 TO 165 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE. THE FSM SHOULD MONITOR NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH WEBSITE FOR BLEACHING ALERTS AND WARNINGS AT: HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML (LOWER CASE) FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THE DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE FEBRUARY 19 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATING OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/... NWS WFO GUAM... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GUAM/ /UNDER MENU ITEM CLIMATE...MORE/ PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER... HTTP://WWW.SOEST.HAWAII.EDU/MET/ENSO/INDEX2.HTML NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING... HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT CHUUK AND MAJURO...USAID SUBREGIONAL OFFICE MAJURO. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING... WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-0946 W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS) $$ KLEESCHULTE/GUARD/SIMPSON