Georgia Crisis Deepens Complexity of U.S.-Russian Relations

17 September 2008

No “business as usual” with Moscow until it honors commitments, says Burns

Washington — The Georgia crisis has further deepened the complexity of diplomatic relations between the United States and Russia, a relationship whose future will likely see a mix of competition, conflict and cooperation, says Under Secretary of State William Burns.

“The Russia we see before us is a muddle of conflicting impulses,” Burns told members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on September 17.  “Our long-term strategy toward Russia needs to be based on a sober assessment of our own interests and priorities, and of what’s driving Russia today.”

Burns, who served as U.S. ambassador to Russia before joining the department’s top leadership in May 2008, said Russia’s August assault on Georgia shows two conflicting sides of modern Russia: one marked by “angry chauvinism” and another by “21st-century connections.”

“Some Russian strategists clearly see opportunities in American difficulties and see taking us down a notch as the best way to assert their own prerogatives and expand their role,” Burns said, an impulse that he said is “fed by the increasingly authoritarian bent in Russian politics over recent years.”

It is a side of Russia that can be seen in its deteriorating relations with Georgia in the years following Georgia’s 2004 Rose Revolution, Burns said, as well as Moscow’s clear course of provocative acts in Georgia’s separatist South Ossetia and Abkhazia regions, which became a pretext for its August invasion. (See “Russian Support of Georgian Separatists Raises New Questions.”)

The Kremlin’s continued refusal to fully honor its cease-fire pledges to the European Union and its escalation of the crisis by recognizing both regions as independent states reflect “the very 19th-century notion that intimidating small neighbors is what makes Great Powers great,” he said.

Meanwhile, Burns said, the Russia described by President Dmitry Medvedev during his 2008 election campaign — a Russia that aspires to become fully integrated with the international system and its institutions and seeks to use its newfound energy wealth to diversify its economy, rebuild infrastructure, open its political system to the rule of law and confront a host of societal challenges — finds itself at risk.

“While much is made of Europe’s energy dependence on Russia, the wider truth is that Russia needs Europe too,” Burns said.

Russian financial markets have lost nearly a third of their value — hundreds of billions of dollars in market capitalization.  Investors have pulled an estimated $20 billion out of the country.  Meanwhile, the ruble has depreciated by nearly 10 percent, forcing the Russian Central Bank to spend billions to stop the slide.

“Russia and the Russian people are paying a considerable price for their country’s disproportionate military action,” Burns said. “At a moment of crucial economic choices, at a moment when Russia can innovate, diversify and develop to the full its greatest resource — its enormously talented people — it is in danger of missing an historic chance and stagnating amidst mounting corruption, cronyism and demographic ills.”

“That vision of Russia has hardly been on display in recent weeks — indeed it has very nearly receded from view — but the realities of Russia’s circumstances may yet force it back to the surface,” Burns said.

While Russia’s future remains unclear, the United States will respond by standing with its European allies to deliver recovery assistance to Georgia, extend support to other countries in the region, and press the Kremlin to honor its commitments under the European-brokered cease-fire, Burns said.

“Our cohesiveness and collective determination is the key to affecting Russia’s calculus,” Burns said.  “American actions have far more impact as part of a chorus than as a solo performance, and unity among European countries is also crucial.”

Until Russia honors all of its commitments, Burns said, the United States has suspended a civil nuclear-cooperation agreement worth billions to Russian businesses and suspended U.S.-Russian bilateral military programs.  “There will be no ‘business as usual’ with Russia while those commitments remain unfulfilled,” he said. (See “Georgia Crisis Will Affect U.S.-Russian Relations in Long Term.”)

Russia is increasingly isolated diplomatically, Burns said, as dozens of nations and international organizations, including its partners in both the G8 and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, have spoken out against Moscow’s attempts to forcibly redraw Europe’s boundaries. He added that so far, only one country, Nicaragua, has followed the Kremlin in recognizing Georgia’s breakaway regions, “hardly a diplomatic triumph.”

At the same time, continued cooperation on critical security issues such as nuclear terrorism and nonproliferation will continue between Washington and Moscow, Burns said, including a chance for him to join his Russian counterpart on September 19 as the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany — the P5+1 — meet in Washington to discuss progress toward resolving issues surrounding Iran’s nuclear program.

“Dealing with Russia in the years ahead will require equal parts firmness, steadiness and patience,” Burns said.  “It will require us to keep the door open to long-term, mutually respectful partnership with Russia — if Russia chooses to make that possible, and if it chooses to become a responsible stakeholder in the international system — but to defend our interests resolutely.”

The text of Burns’ prepared statement is available from America.gov.

For more information, see Crisis in Georgia.