Lighting Developments to 2030

Abstract: Artificial light has long been a significant factor contributing to the quality and productivity of human life; and increasingly so in lower-income countries. Humanity uses huge amounts of energy to produce it. The presenters review possible implications of an emerging technology, solid-state lighting, which promises performance features and efficiencies well beyond those of traditional artificial lighting, for human welfare and energy consumption. They discuss potential consequences of this technology with respect to (a) the global consumption of energy going into lighting up to 2030, and (b) the human productivity and welfare associated with that consumption. They first estimate baseline magnitudes using simple extrapolations of past behavior, and then discuss ways in which the future lighting demand could differ from this baseline. Even if solid-state lighting leads to substantial reductions in unit energy costs of lighting, global electricity consumption for lighting could still increase, due to great expected increases in lighting demand from lower-income countries.