PREDICTING SPACE WEATHER

Predictions of Space Weather are reported by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). The intensities of solar and geomagnetic storms are reported using the SWPC's Space Weather Scales. One use of these scales would be to not fly polar routes if the Space Weather Scale for Radio Blackouts was R 3 or higher. We also try to predict the space weather next month and next year, but that effort is only beginning.

Data and models from Living With a Star research will allow us to build accurate, data-assimilation models of the Earth’s radiation belts, thermosphere and ionosphere. Users of space weather data would like a picture of today's particle environment and ionosphere to allow them to anticipate radiation doses, radio outages and GPS navigation errors. Data from the Radiation Belt Storm Probes, due to be launched in 2012, will provide the data to make predictive models of the radiation belts that affect many satellites. The I TSP mission will study the effects of space weather in the mid-latitude thermosphere and ionosphere.

Physicists can predict these events by monitoring the conditions in the solar wind from satellites such as ACE. Conditions that are likely to lead to a magnetic storm are a high solar wind speeds (> 500 km/s) and a southward oriented interplanetary magnetic field (B_z~ –10 nT). (The interplanetary magnetic field comes from the Sun and is carried out through the solar system by the solar wind.)

Although missions such as SOHO and TRACE have taught us much about the solar influences on space weather, we still do not fully understand all sources of space weather nor can we reliably predict energetic particle eruptions or solar wind variations. Likewise, although we have learned much about the structure and dynamics of the solar interior and the evolution of active region magnetic fields, we still don't understand the solar dynamo and can't reliably predict the size of the next solar cycle or the emergence of the next active region. The understanding of the mechanisms of solar variability that we have gained from previous missions, ground-based observations, and theoretical studies leads us to additional questions that require new observations.

The strength of the magnetic field of the Earth is getting smaller with each passing day. How will this affect the interaction of Space Weather and our world of technology?