Prediction and Evolution of Solar Activity
Prediction
What will the Sun and solar activity look like tomorrow? Next year? As we depend more and more on satellites for our everyday life, we also depend on keeping those satellites safe from the effects of solar activity (Space Weather). Much progress has been made in improving our ability to forecast solar flares and CMEs, but what about the level of solar activity next year?
| Activity | Prediction Type | Prediction Time |
| Flares | Probability of occurence, location | Today, tomorrow, next week |
| CMEs | Probability of occurence, location, geoeffectiveness | Today, tomorrow, next week |
| Active region emergence and growth | Location of emergence, rate of growth | Today, next month |
| Convection zone dynamics | Amplitude in future solar cycles | Decades |
Images from AIA will provide the information to look for changes in coronal loops that preceed flares and CMEs. The pace and resolution of these images should allow the reaarangement of magentic loops that cause flares to be seen. By looking at all of the Sun all of the time AIA will see whether changes in one part of the Sun cause changes in remote areas.
Evolution
Because the solar irradiance is the most important source of energy to the Earth, changes in that irradiance can change our climate and the satellites around the Earth. Increases in the solar irradiance changes can come from two places, the Sun getting hotter or bigger. Sunspots are cooler than average and cause TSI to decrease, faculae are hotter than average and cause TSI to increase. Increases in the size of coronal loops increases the EUV irradiance. It is not currently known if changes in the size of the Sun affect TSI.
If the size of the Sun could change, it would be a reaction to the way heat moves through the convection zone. Historical measurements of the size of the Sun have not answered this question. Helioseismology measurements from HMI will allow us to see into the convection zone and measure the properties of the convection zone. Combined with large models of convection, we can determine how a watched Sun boils!