November 15, 2002 — America's ocean and coastal environments provide a wealth of resources, a home for many marine species and opportunities for business and recreation. Sustaining productive ecosystems, and restoring damaged ones, depends on our ability to understand and predict the impacts of human activities and natural processes on those systems — in other words, to forecast change. As a result, NOAA has begun development of a suite of forecasts — Ecological Forecasts — to support more effective decisions related to these valuable ecosystem goods and services (ecological forecasts are predictions of the impacts of chemical, biological and physical changes on ecosystems, ecosystem components and people).

Forecasts are a part of our everyday lives. We rely on weather forecasts to plan the day’s events or to prepare for a severe storm. We use climate forecasts in agricultural and energy planning. Economic forecasts help individuals and businesses navigate the uncertainties of the financial world. Similarly, ecological forecasts allow resource managers to answer the “what if” questions that are the foundation for assessing management and policy options.

NOAA, through leadership of National Ocean Service’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, is expanding NOAA’s assessment and prediction capabilities to support proactive ecosystem management. Specifically, NOAA is developing ecological forecasts for coastal managers in an effort to help converge wide-ranging research and observation programs around this new and challenging science, which ultimately enriches the science-policy interface.

Examples of Ecological Forecasts
There are many types of potential ecological forecasts. Some are like weather forecasts with predictions of what is likely to happen in a particular location in the short term (i.e., sea nettles in the Chesapeake Bay, the landfall of harmful algal blooms or the movement of oil spills). Others, however, focus on much longer term and larger scale phenomena (such as year-to-year variation in fish stocks, rates of sea grass restoration, effects of climate on oysters, and water quality in the Gulf of Mexico). Ecosystem responses are as varied as the inputs that strain them, playing out on scales from hours to decades and from local to global.

Local Short-term Ecological Forecasting

• Sea Nettles in the Chesapeake Bay: Sea nettles, Chrysaora quinquecirrha, seasonally infest the Chesapeake Bay and affect many activities along its shores, including recreational activities. The effect of sea nettles is not limited to vacationers or weekenders who may shun Chesapeake Bay beaches to avoid painful allergic reactions from contact with their tentacles. Sea nettles are voracious predators, devouring copepods (minute crustaceans), fish eggs and larvae and comb jellies — thereby affecting the food web and possibly the abundance of fish in the bay. The adverse effect of sea nettles may be mitigated if their presence can be monitored and predicted in near real time. Knowing where and when to expect this biotic nuisance may help people better plan their activities and eventually help to alleviate this problem. A collaboration between NOS, the National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service, and others produce forecasts of probable sea nettle presence every Friday by identifying locations where the current environmental conditions are favorable to sea nettles.
• Landfall of Harmful Algal Blooms: Florida Red Tide HABs occur in every coastal state and have caused a cumulative economic loss exceeding $1 billion over the last two decades. Movement of HABs from the ocean to shore can cause human illness and death, as well as fish and marine mammal kills. Florida red tides, for example, release neurotoxins that have killed fish and marine mammals, and caused respiratory impairments for people along the shore. The NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science and Coastal Services Center, in partnership with the NESDIS, produces Red Tide forecasts in the Gulf of Mexico, based on satellite imagery, data from research vessels and models — all of which are used to alert local, state and federal officials of the location and movement of the bloom. With improved understanding of how physical and biological processes interact to promote HAB development, reliable models can support rapid response by monitoring agencies and health departments to safeguard public health, local economies and fisheries.
• Oil Spill Modeling: The NOAA Office of Response and Restoration HAZMAT program interdisciplinary scientific team responds to oil and chemical spills in U.S. waters. Its forecasts of the movement and behavior of spilled oil or chemicals, evaluation of risk to resources, and recommendations for protection priorities and appropriate cleanup actions are a critical part of the nation’s response to both minor and major spill events. To carry out its mission, the team develops and uses a range of oil spill models that predict the movement of the spilled chemicals, including potential landfall and damage to sensitive environments.

Long-term Large Scale Ecological Forecasting

• Fisheries Forecasts: A major mission of NOAA Fisheries is to recommend harvest rates based on forecast responses of commercial fish stocks. Based on estimates of current stock sizes and trends, growth and mortality, stock assessment models are used to recommend rates of harvest that will allow the fisheries to operate at sustaining levels. These ecological forecasts are among the oldest and most operational in marine science.
• Sea Grass Recovery Rates and Restoration Suitability: Sea grass beds are valuable ecosystems that provide refuge and food for wildlife, fish, shellfish and the food webs that support them. NOAA's National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science has developed forecast models that identify the best areas for sea grass restoration based on the probabilities that they will be lost to acute storm events. Other models forecast rates of sea grass recovery that help set performance milestones for restoration effectiveness. NOAA’s work to identify suitable sites and forecast recovery rates increases restoration success and provides a basis for habitat damage assessment cases.
• Impacts of Water Use Under a Changing Climate — Apalachicola Bay Oyster Impacts: Increases in human consumption of fresh water and climate change can both impact the sustainability of fisheries. For example, reduction of freshwater flow to estuaries can increase estuary salinity and modify water circulation patterns in fisheries habitat. The NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science developed models to forecast changes in Apalachicola Bay (Florida) salinity and oyster mortality under two scenarios: meeting 2050 demands for water under current climate conditions and meeting those same demands under a potentially drier climate. Forecasts indicate a doubling of oyster mortality rates when meeting the 2050 human water needs under current climate conditions and a five-fold increase in mortality when meeting 2050 water needs under a drier climate.
• Eutrophication and Hypoxia: The National Academy of Sciences recently concluded that nutrient pollution is the most serious coastal pollution problem. The most dramatic example of this impact is the area commonly called the Dead Zone in the northern Gulf of Mexico. This massive region of very low oxygen levels (hypoxia) stretches from the Mississippi River into Texas coastal waters and in 2002 covered an area larger than the state of Massachusetts (20,000 square kilometers). The Gulf of Mexico contains almost half of the nation’s coastal wetlands and supports approximately 20 percent of the dollar value of its commercial fishery landings. Two sets of forecasts developed through the National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science have shown that reducing the current annual nitrogen load of 1.6 million metric tons from the Mississippi River system by 30 to 40 percent would dramatically reduce the hypoxic area and move toward the goal set in the Federal-State-Tribal Action Plan for reducing hypoxia in the Gulf.

Partnerships
The success of ecological forecasting depends on partnerships at all levels, from universities and local/state governments to other federal agencies. Strong partnerships will help decision makers inside and outside government identify the most critically needed forecasts and support efforts to build, test and apply them. Some key elements of those partnerships are emerging. The National Science and Technology Council Ecological Subcommittee has developed an interagency conceptual plan for moving forward (Committee on Environmental and Natural Resources, 2001. Ecological Forecasting, Washington, D.C., 12pp. Ecological Forecasting@si.edu) and the ecological academic community has made progress in defining many of the attributes, constraints and potentials for ecological forecasting (Clark et al. 2001. Ecological Forecasts: An Emerging Imperative, Science 293: 657-660).

Focusing on developing, testing and applying ecological forecasts provides coastal research and management communities with three benefits. First, ecological forecasts will help decision makers better manage the Nation’s coastal resources because they provide valuable information for better assessments that predict future conditions of proposed actions and the potential impacts of their decisions. Second, focusing on defining ecological forecast needs will strengthen the link between research and management by tying management needs to a scientifically challenging agenda. Finally, the desire to build and improve ecological forecasts will help focus NOAA’s coastal science agenda by assuring that NOAA’s monitoring, research and model development efforts are geared toward the needs of coastal managers conducting ecological forecasts.

Relevant Web Sites

NOAA's State of the Coasts Report

NOAA's National Ocean Service

NOS's National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science

NOAA Ecological Forecasts Brochure

Mapping Sea Nettles in the Chesapeake Bay

National Environmental Satellite, Data Information Service

NOAA's Office of Response and Restoration

NOAA's HAZMAT program

NOAA's Software for Oil Spill Responders and Planners

NOAA Fisheries

HYPOXIA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO: Progress towards the completion of an Integrated Assessment

Media Contact:
Glenda Tyson, NOAA's Ocean Service, (301) 713-3066