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Long-term international projections provided in these tables
(Excel 
format) indicate supply,
demand, and trade for major agricultural crops and meats for
selected countries and global totals through 2021. These
projections provide foreign country detail supporting USDA's
long-term projections, USDA Agricultural Projections to 2021
(OCE-2012-1), released in February 2012.
After declining from a recent peak, the 2012 long-term
projections show growth in the volume of global and U.S.
agricultural trade during the rest of the next 10 years, supported
by demand growth. In particular, growing economies of developing
countries provide a foundation for gains in demand for agricultural
products and increases in trade. Economic growth and increasing
urbanization lead to diet diversification in most developing
regions, generating increased demand for livestock products, feeds,
and processed products. Developing-country demand is further
reinforced by population growth rates that remain nearly double the
growth rates of developed countries. The projections also reflect
an increase in global demand for biofuels and their feedstocks. A
continued depreciation of the U.S. dollar further supports U.S.
agricultural exports.
The projections reflect trade agreements and domestic policy
reforms in place or authorized by November 2011. Domestic
agricultural and trade policies in individual foreign countries are
assumed to evolve along their current paths. In particular,
long-term economic and trade reforms in many developing countries
are assumed to continue. Similarly, the development and use of
agricultural technology and changes in consumer preferences are
assumed to continue.
USDA's long-term projections are a conditional scenario that
assumes current U.S. farm legislation (2008 Farm Act) will remain
in effect through 2021, there are no shocks to the U.S. or global
economies or agricultural sectors, and weather is normal. Specific
assumptions also are made for the macroeconomy and other countries'
policies. The projections were prepared in October through December
2011, reflecting a composite of model results and judgment-based
analysis.