AXHW70 PHFO 041925 DGTHFO HIC001-003-007-009-052200- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 930 AM HST THU OCT 4 2012 ...THE 2012-2013 WET SEASON BEGINS WITH MORE THAN HALF OF THE STATE IN DROUGHT... SYNOPSIS... THE 2012 HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DRY SEASON HAS CONCLUDED AND AS EXPECTED...LARGE AREAS OF THE STATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEEWARD AREAS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND...HEAD INTO THE NEW WET SEASON UNDER SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT. AREAS OF EXTREME DROUGHT...OR THE D3 CATEGORY IN THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP...REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE. IN MAUI COUNTY...THIS INCLUDES THE SOUTHWEST SLOPES OF LANAI...WESTERN MOLOKAI AND SOUTHWEST MAUI FROM KIHEI TO MAKENA. ON THE BIG ISLAND...EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES TO COVER MOST OF THE SOUTH KOHALA DISTRICT...THE POHAKULOA REGION OF THE HAMAKUA DISTRICT AND THE NORTH-FACING SLOPES OF HUALALAI IN THE NORTH KONA DISTRICT. EXTREME DROUGHT HAS ALSO REDEVELOPED OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST KAU. ON KAUAI...SEVERE DROUGHT...OR D2 CATEGORY CONDITIONS...COVERS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM KEALIA TO KOLOA...THEN WESTWARD TO WAIMEA. MAUI COUNTY D2 CONDITIONS INCLUDE THE LOWER LEEWARD SLOPES OF THE WEST MAUI MOUNTAINS AND THE LEEWARD SLOPES OF HALEAKALA FROM KULA TO KAUPO. ON THE BIG ISLAND...THE MAIN AREA OF SEVERE DROUGHT PERSISTS IN THE HUMUULA SADDLE. AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF OAHU HAS REDUCED THE AREA OF MODERATE DROUGHT...OR D1 CONDITIONS...WHICH IS NOW MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE WAIANAE RANGE. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... KAUAI. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE THE SEPTEMBER 6 UPDATE. RECENT REPORTS INDICATED POOR PASTURE CONDITIONS IN THE AREA FROM KALAHEO TO HANAPEPE. OTHER AREAS WITH POOR PASTURE CONDITIONS INCLUDE THE REGION FROM KOLOA TO MAHAULEPU...AND FROM KEALIA TO KALEPA. OAHU. PASTURES AND GENERAL VEGETATION REMAIN IN POOR CONDITION OVER THE LEEWARD WAIANAE RANGE. REPORTS FROM EARLIER IN THE SUMMER INDICATED THAT SOME RANCHERS DESTOCKED PASTURES IN THE WAIALUA...MAKAKILO AND PALEHUA AREAS OF THE ISLAND. THE WATER SUPPLY IN THE WAIMANALO RESERVOIR REMAINS ABOVE PRE-DROUGHT LEVELS. A VOLUNTARY 10 PERCENT REDUCTION IN WATER USE REMAINS IN PLACE AS A PRECAUTION FOR THE DRY SEASON. MOLOKAI. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE THE SEPTEMBER 6 UPDATE. PASTURES AND GENERAL VEGETATION CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY POOR WEST OF KAUNAKAKAI. AN EARLIER REPORT INDICATED THAT THE DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN AXIS DEER ENCROACHMENTS AND CROP DAMAGE AS THEY SEEK FOOD AND WATER. THE WATER LEVEL IN THE KUALAPUU RESERVOIR REMAINS VERY LOW. THUS...THE STATE OF HAWAII DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE HAS CONTINUED A MANDATORY 30 PERCENT REDUCTION IN IRRIGATION WATER CONSUMPTION. LANAI. A RECENT REPORT FROM LANAI INDICATED THAT THE MIDDLE AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE ISLAND...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH-...EAST- AND SOUTH-FACING SLOPES...REMAIN VERY DRY AND THAT PLANTS AND ANIMALS IN THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO SURVIVE. EVEN DROUGHT-RESISTANT PLANTS AND TREES SUCH AS KIAWE WERE STRUGGLING UNDER THE DRY CONDITIONS. MOUFLON SHEEP...AXIS DEER AND GAME BIRD POPULATIONS HAVE BEEN REDUCED. MAUI. SPOTTY LEEWARD RAINFALL IN SEPTEMBER MAY HAVE HELPED PREVENT A WORSENING OF DROUGHT BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO TELL HOW MUCH OF AN IMPROVEMENT IT MAY HAVE PRODUCED...IF AT ALL. THE CURRENT SHORT TERM DRY TREND OVER THE PAST 2 WEEKS MAY BE NEGATING ANY IMPACTS THE MID-SEPTEMBER RAINS HAVE GENERATED. AN EARLIER REPORT INDICATED THAT UPCOUNTRY AGRICULTURE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED BY THE ONGOING DROUGHT. MEDIA REPORTS INDICATED THAT RANCHERS HAVE HAD TO INCREASE IRRIGATION...SUPPLEMENT FEED AND REDUCE HERD SIZES. ENCROACHING AXIS DEER HAVE ALSO DECREASED FORAGE FOR LIVESTOCK. BRUSH FIRE RISK...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST SLOPES OF HALEAKALA...IS EXTREMELY HIGH. THE MAUI COUNTY DEPARTMENT OF WATER SUPPLY HAS CONTINUED THE ONGOING CALL FOR A 5 PERCENT REDUCTION IN WATER USE FOR UPCOUNTRY RESIDENTS. THE REQUEST FOR A 10 PERCENT REDUCTION IN WATER USE BY CENTRAL AND SOUTH MAUI ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT. BIG ISLAND. THE WORSENING OF DROUGHT IN THE SOUTH POINT AREA HAS FORCED SOME RANCHERS TO REDUCE HERD SIZES BY 25 PERCENT AND PURCHASE SUPPLEMENTAL FEED. NEARBY FLOWER GROWERS HAVE HAD TO SPEND EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF MONEY TO FILL CATCHMENT TANKS FOR IRRIGATION. IN THE KAU...NORTH KONA...SOUTH KONA AND SOUTH KOHALA DISTRICTS...THE DROUGHT HAS REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF NECTAR AVAILABLE FOR BEES AND IS NEGATIVELY AFFECTING THE BEE INDUSTRY. LEEWARD KOHALA COASTAL PASTURES HAVE BEEN WITHOUT ADEQUATE FORAGE FOR MANY MONTHS AND RANCHERS HAVE BEEN CONTINUING WITH COSTLY WATER HAULING AND SUPPLEMENTAL FEED OPERATIONS. CLIMATE SUMMARY... ACCORDING TO THE NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE. AN EL NINO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WHICH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR EL NINO TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 6 MONTHS. IF AN EL NINO DOES INDEED DEVELOP...IT IS LIKELY TO BE WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... THE LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OUTLOOK ISSUED ON SEPTEMBER 20 BY THE NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THAT PROBABILITIES FAVOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REST OF THE YEAR. THIS OUTLOOK MAY BE ADJUSTED IN RESPONSE TO CHANGES IN EXPECTATIONS REGARDING EL NINO DEVELOPMENT. THE NEXT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ON OCTOBER 18. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... DATA FROM THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY SHOWED THAT MOST OF THE MONITORED STREAMS ACROSS THE STATE HAD FLOW AVERAGES IN THE NORMAL RANGE. NOTE THAT THERE ARE NO MONITORED STREAMS ON THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY IN THE SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT AREAS. AVERAGE STREAM FLOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE SEASONAL INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON NOVEMBER 8 2012 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/ U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML HAWAII DROUGHT MONITOR...HAWAII.GOV/DLNR/DROUGHT/INDEX.HTML USGS HAWAII - RECENT CONDITIONS...HI.WATER.USGS.GOV/RECENT/INDEX.HTML CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER LONG-LEAD HAWAII OUTLOOK... WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/FXHW40.HTML HAWAII DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER...HAWAII.DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU/ ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... INFORMATION FOR THIS PRODUCT WAS COMPILED FROM A NUMBER OF SOURCES INCLUDING THE COUNTY BOARDS AND DEPARTMENTS OF WATER SUPPLY...U.S. AND STATE OF HAWAII AGRICULTURE AGENCIES...THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY AND THE MEDIA. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT... KEVIN KODAMA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 2525 CORREA RD. SUITE 250 HONOLULU HI 96822 PHONE...808-973-5276 KEVIN.KODAMA@NOAA.GOV $$