AXHW70 PHFO 070027 DGTHFO HIC001-003-007-009-072200- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 225 PM HST THU OCT 6 2011 ...DRY SEPTEMBER INCREASES BIG ISLAND DROUGHT INTENSITY... SYNOPSIS... WELL BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THE WARMEST TIME OF THE YEAR COMBINED TO INCREASE DROUGHT INTENSITY OVER THE LEEWARD AREAS OF THE STATE. THE GREATEST CHANGES OCCURRED ON THE BIG ISLAND WHERE EXTREME DROUGHT...OR D3 CATEGORY CONDITIONS ON THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP...HAS ONCE AGAIN STARTED. THE COVERAGE OF D3 IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTH KOHALA DISTRICT...LEEWARD NORTH KOHALA DISTRICT AND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE KAU DISTRICT. SEVERE DROUGHT...OR D2 CATEGORY CONDITIONS... CONTINUES TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE NORTH KONA DISTRICT...THE POHAKULOA REGION OF THE HAMAKUA DISTRICT AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE KAU DISTRICT. LEEWARD BIG ISLAND AREAS NOT UNDER D2 CONDITIONS ARE CONSIDERED TO BE UNDER D1...OR MODERATE DROUGHT. MAUI COUNTY REMAINS UNDER SEVERE DROUGHT OVER THE LEEWARD HALEAKALA SLOPES FROM KAMAOLE TO ULUPALAKUA AND THE UPCOUNTRY AND KAUPO SECTIONS REMAIN UNDER MODERATE DROUGHT. LANAI AND THE WESTERN THIRD OF MOLOKAI ALSO REMAIN UNDER MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. SIGNIFICANT DRYNESS OVER LEEWARD OAHU RESULTED IN THE INITIATION OF MODERATE DROUGHT OVER THE WAIANAE SLOPES FROM MAKAHA TO EWA. SEVERE DROUGHT HAS AFFECTED PORTIONS OF THE STATE OF HAWAII CONTINUOUSLY SINCE JUNE 2008. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... KAUAI. THERE WERE NO DROUGHT IMPACTS TO REPORT. OAHU. THE WATER SUPPLY IN THE WAIMANALO RESERVOIR HAS BEEN RAPIDLY DECREASING AND HAS DROPPED OVER 25 FEET SINCE EARLY IN THE YEAR. THE STATE OF HAWAII DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE IS MAINTAINING A VOLUNTARY 10 PERCENT CUTBACK IN IRRIGATION WATER USE BUT MAY SHIFT TO MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS IF WATER LEVELS FAIL TO RECOVER SOON. MOLOKAI. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE THE SEPTEMBER 8 UPDATE. THE STATE OF HAWAII DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE HAS KEPT IN PLACE THE MANDATORY 30 PERCENT CUTBACK IN IRRIGATION WATER CONSUMPTION FOR THE KUALAPUU RESERVOIR SYSTEM. LANAI. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE THE SEPTEMBER 8 UPDATE. PASTURES AND GENERAL VEGETATION CONDITIONS ARE IN A DEGRADED STATE. MAUI. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE THE SEPTEMBER 8 UPDATE. PASTURES AND GENERAL VEGETATION CONDITIONS HAVE DECLINED ALONG THE LEEWARD SLOPES OF HALEAKALA AND HAVE BEEN IMPACTING RANCHING OPERATIONS. WATER SUPPLY LEVELS FOR UPCOUNTRY MAUI CONTINUE TO DECLINE WITH RECENT DITCH FLOWS FROM EAST MAUI AVERAGING LESS THAN 30 PERCENT OF CAPACITY. THE MAUI COUNTY DEPARTMENT OF WATER SUPPLY HAS MAINTAINED THEIR CALL FOR A 5 PERCENT REDUCTION IN WATER USE. THE REQUEST FOR A 10 PERCENT REDUCTION IN WATER USE BY CENTRAL AND SOUTH MAUI RESIDENTS ALSO REMAINED IN EFFECT. BIG ISLAND. DROUGHT IMPACTS OVER THE LEEWARD AREAS OF THE ISLAND HAVE WORSENED OVER THE PAST MONTH.  PASTURES AND GENERAL VEGETATION FROM KAWAIHAE TO NORTH KONA ARE IN VERY POOR CONDITION AND BRUSH FIRES ARE BECOMING A BIGGER ISSUE AS THE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. PASTURES IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE KAU DISTRICT ARE ALSO DETERIORATING. THE USDA FARM SERVICE AGENCY REPORTED THAT VARIOUS AREAS OF THE ISLAND HAVE 30 TO 100 PERCENT LOSS OF FORAGE FOR LIVESTOCK. MANY RANCHERS HAVE ALREADY DESTOCKED CATTLE AND WATER HAULING OPERATIONS HAVE BEEN ONGOING FOR SEVERAL MONTHS. COUPLED WITH HIGHER FEED PRICES...THE IMPACT ON RANCHING OPERATIONS HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT. IN OTHER AREAS OF AGRICULTURE...YIELDS FOR TANGERINES, ORANGES, AND PUMMELOS ARE DOWN ABOUT AN AVERAGE OF 50 PERCENT. CLIMATE SUMMARY... ACCORDING TO THE NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...LA NINA HAS DEVELOPED ONCE AGAIN. LA NINA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER OF 2011-2012. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... THE LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OUTLOOK ISSUED ON SEPTEMBER 15 BY THE NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATED THAT PROBABILITIES FAVORED BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH OCTOBER 2011. PROBABILITIES FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING EARLY 2012 AS PART OF A FORECASTED MATURE PHASE OF LA NINA. THE NEXT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ON OCTOBER 20. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY MONTHLY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES FOR SEPTEMBER INDICATED THAT MOST OF THE MONITORED STREAMS ACROSS THE STATE WERE AT NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL FLOW LEVELS. AVERAGE FLOW LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT MONTH. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON NOVEMBER 3 2011 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/ U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML HAWAII DROUGHT MONITOR...WWW.HAWAIIDROUGHT.COM USGS HAWAII - RECENT CONDITIONS...HI.WATER.USGS.GOV/RECENT/INDEX.HTML CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER LONG-LEAD HAWAII OUTLOOK... WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/FXHW40.HTML ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... INFORMATION FOR THIS PRODUCT WAS COMPILED FROM A NUMBER OF SOURCES INCLUDING THE COUNTY BOARDS AND DEPARTMENTS OF WATER SUPPLY...U.S. AND STATE OF HAWAII AGRICULTURE AGENCIES...THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY AND THE MEDIA. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT... KEVIN KODAMA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 2525 CORREA RD. SUITE 250 HONOLULU HI 96822 PHONE...808-973-5276 KEVIN.KODAMA@NOAA.GOV $$