Verifying forecasts of smoke and air quality with satellite products![]() The National Weather Service (NWS) offers experimental forecasts of the location and concentration of smoke using a model called Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT), developed by the NOAA Air Resources Laboratory (ARL). In 2006 NWS asked NESDIS to provide observational support for verifying the accuracy of smoke forecasts in near real time. To fulfill this request, NESDIS scientists developed a procedure based on pattern recognition to identify smoke plumes, or clouds of smoke, using fire and aerosol information from geostationary satellite data. The amount of overlap between observed and forecast smoke concentrations is used to calculate a forecast skill, as a figure of merit score.
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