Renewables and CO₂ Emissions

U.S. Renewables

After growing by 13.9 percent in 2011, total renewable energy consumption is projected to decline by 2.3 percent in 2012. This decrease is the result of hydropower use falling by 0.4 quadrillion Btu (13.8 percent) as it begins to return to its long-term average. The decline in hydropower from 2011 to 2012 more than offsets the projected growth in the consumption of other renewable energy forms. Renewable energy consumption increases 2.4 percent in 2013 as hydropower continues to decline (2.3 percent) but non-hydropower renewables grow by an average of 4.8 percent.

Under current law, federal production tax credits for wind-powered generation will not be available for turbines that begin operating after the end of 2012. Wind-powered generation, which grew by 26 percent in 2011, is forecast to grow an additional 16 percent in 2012. The outlook for wind capacity additions and generation in 2013 will likely depend on whatever decision is made regarding the extension of production tax credits.

As a result of drought conditions depressing corn harvests throughout the Midwest, fuel ethanol production fell from an average of 890 thousand bbl/d during the second quarter of 2012 to an average of 820 thousand bbl/d in the third quarter 2012. EIA expects ethanol production will remain near current levels through the first half of 2013 and recover in the second half of 2013, averaging 850 thousand bbl/d (13.03 billion gallons) for the year. The projected lower ethanol production is generally matched by lower ethanol exports. Biodiesel production averaged about 63 thousand bbl/d (0.97 billion gallons) in 2011. Forecast biodiesel production averages 67 thousand bbl/d in 2012 and 83 thousand bbl/d in 2013, with biodiesel blending meeting the Renewable Fuel Standard requirements of 1.0 billion gallons and 1.28 billion gallons respectively in those years.

U.S. Energy-Related CO₂ Emissions

After declining by 2.3 percent in 2011, fossil fuel emissions are projected to further decline by 2.7 percent in 2012. This decline is followed by an increase of 1.9 percent in 2013. Petroleum emissions fall by 1.4 percent in 2012 and grow 0.2 percent in 2013. Natural gas emissions rise by 5.2 percent in 2012 and fall by 0.4 percent in 2013. Coal emissions decline 9.7 percent in 2012, but are projected to rise by 6.0 percent in 2013 as rising natural gas prices lead to increases in coal-fired electricity generation.