Influenza is unpleasant for many, and for some people, can be deadly. (Photo: NatalieJ via Flickr/Creative Commons)

Imagine that one day soon when you tune in to your favorite radio or TV station for the latest weather forecast, you’re given a flu forecast as well.

Adapting techniques used in modern weather prediction, scientists at Columbia University and the National Center for Atmospheric Research have come up with a way to produce localized forecasts of seasonal influenza outbreaks.

The researchers hope their new flu forecasting system, still in its initial phases, will serve both local and international health officials with highly detailed information, while also providing easier-to-understand versions for the general public. The researchers plan to get the system to an operational state within the next year or two.

Jeffrey Shaman, assistant professor of Environmental Health Sciences at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health is the lead author of the study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. He says peak flu season can greatly vary from year to year, and from region to region.  For example, Atlanta, a Southern U.S. city might reach its peak flu season weeks ahead of Anchorage in the far northwest.

Students in Kazakhstan wear surgical masks to help prevent the spread of flu during the 2009 swine flu outbreak.  (Photo: Nikolay Olkhovoy via Wikmedia Commons)

The system will track flu outbreaks from week to week, location to location, showing the prevalence of flu in our own areas.

“I think what you can expect from it is weekly prognostications, weekly predictions, of how far in the future the peak of a flu outbreak is expected to be,” said Shaman.

Comparing his team’s flu forecasts to weathercasts we’re all used to, Shaman says the meteorological forecasts tell you, for example, that there’s an 80 percent chance of rain tomorrow, which prompts you to expect wet weather.

The flu forecast, on the other hand, would tell you that the peak of the flu season will be hitting your area within perhaps the next week or month reminding you to take any steps necessary to minimize the impact of the flu on you and your family.

The influenza forecast will also be able to provide data to health officials on the size and scope of the outbreak as well, allowing them to better plan a public health response.

Previous research conducted by Shaman and his colleagues found that U.S. wintertime flu epidemics were most likely to take place following a spell of very dry weather.

A microscopic image of the H1N1 (swine flu) influenza virus. In 2009, the World Health Organization declared this new strain to be a pandemic.

Using a computer model that incorporated this finding and feeding it web-based estimates of flu-related sickness in New York City from the winters of 2003-04 and 2008-09, Shaman and co-author Alicia Karspect of the the National Center for Atmospheric Research were able to produce weekly flu forecasts for those time periods that predicted the peak timing of the outbreak more than seven weeks ahead of the actual peak.

Shaman says that three ingredients are needed to do this kind of forecasting.

First, a mathematical model that describes the transmission of influenza within a specific population or community.

Next, real-time observations of what’s currently going on in the real world.  Shaman says data comes from web-based estimates of influenza-like illnesses, recorded by various hospitals and clinics that see or treat patients with symptoms consistent with the flu.

And finally, a statistical or data assimilation method similar to those used in weather forecasting, to pull in data from the observations into the model that generates the predictions.

Yes, a flu shot may sting a little bit but the CDC recommends a yearly flu vaccine as the first and most important step in protecting ourselves against flu viruses. (Photo: US Navy)

Variations made to the incoming data stream, as conditions change, keep the model updated and on track to better reflect real-world conditions allowing for much more accurate forecasts.

Shaman and his research colleagues plan to test their system in other localities across the US by using up-to-date data.

“There is no guarantee that just because the method works in New York, it will work in Miami,” Shaman said.

Jeffrey Shaman joins us this weekend on the radio edition of “Science World.”  Tune in to the radio program (see right column for scheduled times) or check out the interview below.

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Official NASA Apollo 11 portrait of Astronaut Neil A. Armstrong, commander of the Lunar Landing mission. (Photo: NASA)

Neil Armstrong, the first man to step onto the surface of the moon, died Saturday  from heart-surgery related complications. He was 82.

It was more than 40 years ago that Armstrong uttered the now-iconic words, “That’s one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind,” forever sealing his place in history.

He spoke the words just before stepping onto the moon, effectively ending the space race between the United States and the Soviet Union.

Neil Alden Armstrong was born on Aug. 5, 1930 in Wapakoneta, Ohio. His love of flying began at age 2 when his father took him to the Cleveland Air Races.

Throughout his childhood, while his family moved from one small Ohio town to another, Armstrong’s interest in flying grew. He read countless fiction and non-fiction books on aviation.

After high school, Armstrong entered a special US Navy program that allowed him to complete his first year and a half at Purdue University before being called up for naval service where he flew a number of missions during the Korean War.

Test pilot Neil Armstrong with the rocket-powered X-15-3 aircraft (Photo: NASA)

Following his service in the US Navy, Armstrong earned a bachelor’s degree in aeronautical engineering and became an experimental research test pilot, flying a variety of airplanes and jets, including the famous X-15 rocket powered aircraft.

In June of 1962, Armstrong learned NASA was looking for its second group of astronauts.  He submitted his application, but it arrived about a week after the applications were due.  Fortunately for Armstrong, an old friend working at NASA’s Manned Spacecraft center saw his late-arriving application and slipped it into the group of applications being considered.

On Sept. 13, 1962,  Armstrong was invited to join NASA’s Astronaut Corps as part of   “the New Nine,” the next group of US astronauts following the original Mercury 7 astronauts.

Armstrong first flew into space on March 16, 1966, as command pilot for the two-man Gemini 8 mission. At the time, it was the most complex manned space flight attempted by NASA.  Gemini 8 was the first US space mission to rendezvous and dock with another spacecraft, an unmanned vehicle called the Agena.  Armstrong later served as a back-up command pilot for the Gemini 11 mission.

July 16, 1969 – Mission commander Neil Armstrong, command module pilot Michael Collins, and lunar module pilot Buzz Aldrin prepare to ride the special transport van to Kennedy Space Center’s Launch Complex 39A where their Apollo 11 spacecraft awaited them. (Photo: NASA)

In April 1967, Armstrong was selected for  NASA’s Apollo program, placing him  among a group of astronauts bound for the moon.

After serving as back-up commander for Apollo 8, the mission that first orbited the moon in 1968, Armstrong was teamed up with fellow astronauts, Edwin “Buzz” Aldrin and Michael Collins for the Apollo 11 mission, which put  the first man on the moon.

On July 16, 1969, Armstrong, – along with crewmates Aldrin and Collins – climbed into the space capsule, nicknamed Columbia. Powered by the monstrous Saturn V launch vehicle, Apollo 11 lifted off from the Kennedy Space Center for its 384,000 kilometer trip to the moon.

Four days later, on July 20, 1969, Armstrong and Aldrin took the lunar module known as the “Eagle,” for a trip from the orbiting command module to the surface of the moon.

About seven hours after the Eagle landed at the Sea of Tranquility, Armstrong  climbed down the Eagle’s ladder and onto the surface of the moon.

The world celebrated as they watched Armstrong and Aldrin do what most thought was impossible – walk on the moon.

Neil Armstrong on the lunar surface, taken by Buzz Aldrin, July 1969 (Photo: NASA)

After spending about 21 hours on the lunar surface, the Eagle left the moon to rendezvous with the command module for the trip back to Earth.  Apollo 11’s historic mission ended with a  splash into the North Pacific Ocean on July 24, 1969.

Shortly after the Apollo 11 flight, Armstrong announced  he would not return to space.

About a year after his history-making moment, Armstrong earned a master’s degree in aerospace engineering from the University of Southern California. He resigned from NASA in 1971.

After NASA, Armstrong taught  at the University of Cincinnati (Ohio), served on the board of directors of several major corporations and was chairman of the EDO Corporation, which designed and manufactured products  used in defense, intelligence, and commercial industries.  He retired from EDO in 2002.

Armstrong was selected to serve on panels investigating both the Apollo 13 accident in 1970 and, later, the 1986 space shuttle Challenger disaster.

A few weeks ago, Armstrong underwent surgery to relieve blocked coronary arteries. He died Saturday from complications related to the procedure surgery.

Buzz Aldrin, who piloted the Apollo 11 lunar module,  said of Armstrong’s passing, “I am very saddened to learn of the passing of Neil Armstrong today. Neil and I trained together as technical partners but were also good friends who will always be connected through our participation in the Apollo 11 mission. Whenever I look at the moon it reminds me of the moment over four decades ago when I realized that even though we were farther away from Earth than two humans had ever been, we were not alone.”

Video montage produced by NASA in 2009 for the 40th anniversary of the Apollo 11 trip to the moon and back.

A statement released by Armstrong’s family after his death, summed it up this way,  ”[he was a] reluctant American hero [and had] served his nation proudly, as a navy fighter pilot, test pilot, and astronaut… While we mourn the loss of a very good man, we also celebrate his remarkable life and hope that it serves as an example to young people around the world to work hard to make their dreams come true, to be willing to explore and push the limits, and to selflessly serve a cause greater than themselves.”

Sally Ride’s official astronaut portrait. She joined the astronaut corps in 1978. (Photo: NASA)

Dr. Sally Kristen Ride, the first U.S. woman in space, died at age 61 on Monday after a 17-month battle with pancreatic cancer.

Ride shattered NASA’s gender barrier and earned her place in the history books on June 18, 1983 when she flew into space aboard the Space Shuttle Challenger, serving as a Mission Specialist.

“Sally Ride broke barriers with grace and professionalism – and literally changed the face of America’s space program,” said NASA Administrator Charles Bolden. “The nation has lost one of its finest leaders, teachers and explorers. Our thoughts and prayers are with Sally’s family and the many she inspired. She will be missed, but her star will always shine brightly.”

Born on May 26, 1951 in Encino, California,  Ride developed an early interest in science as well as a passion for sports, especially tennis.  She considered becoming a professional tennis player, especially after being encouraged by the famous tennis pro, Billie Jean King, who told Ride she was talented enough to pursue a professional tennis career.

But her love of science won out. After attending Swarthmore College and UCLA,  Ride went to Stanford University where she earned a bachelor’s degree in English literature and physics.  She continued her graduate education at Stanford earning her master’s  and PhD  degrees in Physics.

Astronaut Sally Ride, a specialist on shuttle mission STS-7, monitors control panels from the pilot’s chair on the shuttle Challenger flight deck in June 1983. (Photo: AP Photo/NASA, File)

In 1977, the young physicist  saw an ad in the Stanford student newspaper that said NASA was looking for astronauts.  Up until then, all NASA astronauts  had  been male military test pilots, but the ad said the space agency was  looking for scientists and engineers. Women were encouraged to apply.

Armed with her degrees in physics, Ride applied to become an astronaut. So did 8,000 other people.   In January 1978, NASA selected 35 new astronaut candidates.   Ride was  part of an historic group which included six women, three African-American men, and an Asian-American man.

Even as she  prepared for her first flight aboard the space shuttle,  Ride endured sexist comments and questions, including some from members of the press.

According to a June 1983 article in People magazine, the questioning included; “Will the flight affect your reproductive organs?” Ride answered: “There’s no evidence of that.”

“Do you weep when things go wrong on the job?” Her response: “How come nobody ever asks Rick (Frederick Hauck, the mission pilot) those questions?”

“Will you become a mother?” Smiling, Ride responded: “You notice I’m not answering.” Despite the inane and sexist questions, Astronaut Ride, according the article remained calm and unrattled.

Ride later went into space once again aboard the Challenger in October, 1984. In total, according to NASA, she spent more than 343 hours in space.

NASA Video – Sally Ride: First American Woman in Space

Ride was preparing for her third space flight when  Challenger exploded in 1986.

President Reagan named her to serve on the presidential commission  investigating the Challenger accident.

Once the  investigation was completed, NASA assigned Ride to its headquarters in Washington, DC, to lead the space agency’s first strategic planning effort.  During that time, Ride wrote a report entitled “Leadership and America’s Future in Space.” She also created NASA’s Office of Exploration.

Ride left NASA in 1987 to work at the Stanford University Center for

Former astronaut Sally Ride speaks to the media at the White House in October 2009. (AP Photo)

International Security and Arms Control.

Two years later, she became a physics professor at the University of California, San Diego and was named  director of the California Space Institute.

In 2001, she founded Sally Ride Science,  a company that creates educational science programs for elementary and middle school students, with a focus on girls’ involvement with science.

In February 2003, disaster struck the US Space Shuttle program again, when Colombia disintegrated during re-entry.  As with the Challenger accident,  Ride was asked to serve on the Space Shuttle Columbia Accident Investigation Board.

Over the years,  Ride  earned numerous awards, was inducted into the National Women’s Hall of Fame and  had two elementary schools named in her honor.

Her survivors include Tam O’Shaughnessy, her partner of 27 years, her mother, Joyce; her sister, Bear; her niece, Caitlin, and nephew, Whitney.

Ride’s legacy lives on through Sally Ride Science and its continuing work motivating and supporting the scientific ambitions of young girls and boys.