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Under Secretary's Blog

Economic Indicator: Personal Income - Putting recent tax cuts into perspective

Submitted on June 27, 2011 - 2:29pm

We have calculated and mentioned in this blog that the average household now has an extra $49.57 in its monthly budget or $247.85 through May as a result of the payroll tax cuts passed last December as part of the acronym-resistant Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization and Job Creation Act of 2010.   To arrive at this estimate, we started with data from our colleagues at the Bureau of Economic Analysis, who estimated the reduced Social Security contribu

Economic Indicator: GDP – Who’s Making the Money?

Submitted on June 24, 2011 - 1:52pm

The third estimate of GDP for the first quarter of 2011 came out this morning, and of note is what it says about corporate profits by industry. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2010, domestic corporate profits increased in the first quarter of this year by $84.9 billion, up 6.4% from the previous quarter.  This increase was led by growth among manufacturing ($39.1 billion), wholesale trade ($28.8 billion) and “other” non-financial firms ($44.4 billion). The largest loser was the financial sector which took a $57.4 billion hit.    

Economic Indicator: Durable goods shipments, exports, and jobs - a love story

Submitted on June 23, 2011 - 1:53pm

Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released its advance report on durable goods: manufacturers’ shipments, inventories and orders for May. It’s important to note that over the past 16 months, increases in exports of manufactured  durable goods have soared, driving higher shipments and some improvement in durable goods-supported employment.

Did Sister Sledge mean “We are household” instead of “We are family”? Understanding Household Formation

Submitted on June 15, 2011 - 4:33pm

When thinking about the housing sector, we can think about the short, medium, and longer term.  In the short-term, we receive a wide variety of indicators, such as the data released today on housing starts and permits (both rose in May and the April data were revised upwards).  In the medium-term (say the next year or so), a variety of factors will be at play, including the improving job market.  In the longer-term, the key driver will be changes in the numbers of households.  Given that “household formation” isn’t often discussed, we thought it might be useful today to go into a little more detail about what is a household and what has recently been happening on the ho

ESA report on "Foreign Direct Investment in the United States"

Submitted on June 14, 2011 - 11:11am

Today the Commerce Department and ESA released a short report on “Foreign Direct Investment in the United States.”  Foreign company investment in U.S. businesses, known as foreign direct investment (FDI), has supported more than 5 million jobs over the past decade, jobs that pay, on average, up to 30% more than the average of all U.S. firms (Figure 1).

Retail Sales in May

Submitted on June 14, 2011 - 9:32am

See below for an update of yesterday's chart, updated with the latest retail sales data from Census.

Shifting Shopping

~Mark Doms, Chief Economist, U.S. Department of Commerce

Economic Indicator Preview: Rebounding Retail Sales Shift to Warehouse Clubs, E-Shopping

Submitted on June 13, 2011 - 12:26pm

The retail sales data release receives tremendous attention as a timely indicator of consumer spending as it shows whether  consumers are picking up or slowing down the pace of their spending.  So far this year, the news on the spending front has been positive.

Foreign Trade in April- Deficit Declines as Exports Rise, Oil Imports Plummet

Submitted on June 9, 2011 - 8:52am

Today’s data release contained a bit of fresh air (in contrast to DC’s unseasonably hot air – and that’s not metaphorically speaking  – we’re talking code orange, 90+ degrees with comparable humidity, and iffy air quality); imports fell, despite an increase in oil prices. The amount of oil we imported dropped by an unusually large amount, and our imports from Japan dropped as well. On the other side, exports edged up, recording the second consecutive month of record exports following a surge last month. Subsequently, the trade deficit contracted, so April’s report was overall pretty good. Next month, though, we could see some unwinding on the oil and Japan fronts. 

Economic Indicator Preview: Foreign Trade- Exports, Oil and Natural Disasters

Submitted on June 8, 2011 - 1:53pm
Categories:

Among the slew of data that accompanies the U.S. Census Bureau’s release of April export and import data on Thursday, three items deserve special attention.  

Car or Truck? Why Gas Prices Help Drive Sales of Cars over Light Trucks

Submitted on May 31, 2011 - 2:52pm

When auto companies report their sales figures tomorrow, we’re likely to hear again how the sale of cars (especially gas sippers) is growing, while the sale of light trucks (especially gas guzzlers) is slumping (check out the New York Times story from Sunday “Detroit’s Rebound Is Built on Smaller Cars”).  Why?  Since April, gas prices have continued to increase. The Energy Information Administration reported that the average retail price of gasoline was $3.96 in May, up from $3.85 in April and $3.62 in March.