Past and Future Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Habitats and Species in the Greater Everglades (FISCHS)

Project Investigators: Catherine Langtimm, Eric Swain, Dennis Krohn, Donald L. DeAngelis, Thomas J. Smith III, Brad Stith Project Personnel: Melinda Lohmann, Ann M. Foster, Jiang Jiang, Zuzanna Zajac, Ginger Tiling-Range, Paul R. Nelson Project Start Date: 2009 End Date: 2013 Recent Funding: (FY12) USGS GE PES, USGS, (FY11) USGS GE PES, USGS, (FY10) USGS GE PES, USGS, (FY09) USGS GE PES, USGS Work Plans Publications

This integrated modeling project merges biological and hydrological models to develop tools to help resource management deal with the projected ecological consequences of rising sea level in coastal south Florida. The project builds on prior USGS research in support of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP). To develop a realistic suite of predictive models, we are (1) Enhancing a hydrologic model to reliably hindcast multi-decadal observed sea level rise (SLR) phenomena; (2) Developing mechanistic models of coastal vegetation change; (3) Incorporating episodic disturbance from hurricanes; (4) Using the hydrologic models to simulate variables for spatially-explicit population and habitat suitability index models; and (5) Developing futurecasting capability under projected climate change, SLR, and restoration scenarios.

Work Plans

• 2012

Publications

Journal Articles

• Spatial pattern formation of coastal vegetation in response to external gradients and positive feedbacks affecting soil porewater salinity: a model study
• The role of mangroves in attenuating storm surges