Post-Tropical Cyclone TONY Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT44 KNHC 252034
TCDAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192012
500 PM AST THU OCT 25 2012

SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF TONY
REMAINS COMPLETELY EXPOSED DUE TO OVER 40 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS ALSO GRADUALLY BEEN LOSING
DEFINITION AS THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD SEPARATES FARTHER FROM
THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH
LATEST DVORAK CI NUMBERS. GIVEN THE DECAYING STRUCTURE OF THE
CYCLONE...TONY IS BEING DECLARED A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THIS
ADVISORY. POST-TROPICAL TONY SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A LARGE
BAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE HEADING OF TONY HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 075/19. TONY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN A DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND GRADUALLY DECELERATE BEFORE
LOSING ITS IDENTITY. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO BUT AGAIN SOUTH
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 31.2N  34.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  26/0600Z 31.8N  31.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  26/1800Z 32.5N  28.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  27/0600Z 33.2N  25.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

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FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN