AGPN40 KWNM 251943
MIMPAC
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN 
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1145 AM PST MON 25 FEB 2013 
.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT 
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W. 
THE 18Z OPC SFC ANALYSIS INDCATED A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER 
THE CENTRAL CA WATERS WITH A HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE 
WA/OR AND N CA WATERS. ANOTHER STRONG FRONT WAS LOCATED WELL W 
OF THE AREA JUST CROSSING 150W. 
THE 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 
MOST OF THE FCST PERIOD...THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES THAT SHOW 
UP BY SAT WITH THE ECMWF/UKMET BEING IN ONE CAMP AND THE GFS/CMC 
IN THE OTHER. FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TONIGHT INTO WED...THE 
NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO AFFECT MAINLY THE PZ5 
WATERS TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THE GFS AND CMC CONTINUE TO INDICATE 
AT LEAST MARGINAL GALES FOR THE WA OFFSHORE WATERS TUE...WHILE 
THE ECMWF/UKMET ARE WEAKER INDICATING WINDS TO 30 KT. WITH THE 
GALES ALREADY RAISED...WILL LEAVE WARNINGS AS IS AND GO WITH MDT 
CONFDC LVL AS BELIEVE THERE WILL AT LEAST BE GUSTS TO GALE 
FORCE. WARM FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER WED WITH WINDS 
REMAINING JUST BELOW GALE FORCE WITH THE SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE 
WARM FRONT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE FCST ARE FOR SAT. THE 
ECMWF IS THE BIGGEST OUTLIER WHICH DEVELOPS A LOW W OF THE 
CENTRAL CA WATERS THEN TRACKS NE ACROSS THE N CA WATERS SAT 
NIGHT. THE UKMET DOES NOT HAVE THIS LOW BUT DOES MOVE FRONT 
ACROSS THE WA/OR N CA WATERS. THE GFS/CMC ALSO INDICATE A FRONT 
MOVING ACROSS THE WA/OR/N CA WATERS BUT POST FRONTAL WINDS ARE 
NOT AS STRONG. FOR NOW WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE 12Z GFS/CMC FOR 
THE SAT PERIOD WITH WINDS TRENDING TO SW TO N ACROSS ALL THE 
OFFSHORE WATERS. 
SEAS...THE 18Z SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE ECMWF WAVE 
MODEL APPEARED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON SEAS AT LEAST 
INITIALLY THAN THE MULTI-GRID NNW3. AS USUAL...THE ECMWF DOES 
NOT APPEAR TO KEEP THE HIGHER SWELL OVER THE WA/OR/N CA OFFSHORE 
WATERS AND IS MORE REFLECTIVE OF THE ACTUAL OBS. WILL START 
CLOSE TO THE ECMWF WAM FOR TONIGHT...THEN WILL TRANSITION TO THE 
MULTI-GRID NWW3 TUE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. 
EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE MODEL...N/A 
.WARNINGS/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE 
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: 
.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS... 
.CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE LOOKOUT...GALE TUE...MDT CONFDC. 
.CAPE LOOKOUT TO PT ST GEORGE...NONE. 
.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS... 
.PT ST GEORGE TO PT ARENA...NONE. 
.PT ARENA TO PT CONCEPTION...NONE. 
.PT CONCEPTION TO GUADALUPE ISLAND...NONE. 
$$ 
.FORECASTER KOSIER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.