Since the global financial turmoil spilled into emerging markets in October 2008, Serbia has seen substantial deterioration in its economic fundamentals. As elsewhere in the region, exports and imports have plummeted, external borrowing has dried up, and economic activity has slumped. Going forward, the global and regional economic downturn will likely be deeper and more protracted than projected only months earlier. Serbia’s GDP growth is likely to be negative this year with the official forecast of a 2% contraction for 2009 and limited prospects for recovery in 2010 with modest growth forecasted at 0.5%. Unofficial forecasts place GDP contraction between 5% and 7%. The dinar remains under pressure with some economists projecting an additional 10% depreciation in 2009. The unsustainable spending boom in the public and private sectors that drove Serbia’s economic growth and external imbalances in recent years is being reversed sharply. In response to the deteriorating conditions, Serbia is entering into a $3 billion stand-by loan with the IMF to smooth, not preclude, the inevitable contraction in economy-wide spending to more sustainable levels. The Government is also seeking additional support from other international financial institutions and donors during this period. To achieve a more balanced external position, there is a strategy being implemented with two main elements. First, fiscal adjustments are being made to keep the 2009 deficit at a level no greater than 3% of GDP (revised 2009 budget deficit of 2.3% based upon 2% GDP contraction). Second, foreign banks have been asked to provide voluntary assurances to maintain their commitments to Serbia and keep their subsidiaries well capitalized. In addition to these two elements, there are commitments to maintain monetary policy aimed at containing inflation, projected to be 8% in 2009, and to accelerate long-delayed structural reforms to boost the economy’s potential output.
GDP - real growth rate:
5.6% (2008 est.)
7.1% (2007 est.)
5.6% (2006 est.)
GDP - per capita:
$10,900 (2008 est.)
$10,300 (2007 est.)
$9,500 (2006 est.)
GDP - composition by sector:
Agriculture:12.3%
Industry: 24.2%
Services: 63.5% (2007 est.)
Labor force:
2.961 million (2002 est.)
Unemployment rate:
18.8% (2007 est.)
Local Currency:
Dinar (RSD)