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A Solar Kick for Climate: the Short and Long of ItBy Charles A. PerryU.S. Geological Survey, 4821 Quail Crest Place, Lawrence, KS, 66049, U.S.A. AbstractAn important candidate for initiating climate change is the variation in total solar output. Even though the observed variation in solar irrandiace is only 0.1 percent over the 11-year solar-activity cycle, its effects can be seen in many hydroclimatic records in North America. Annual precipitation, runoff, glacier-mass, and ground-water-level data correlate with lagged solar-irradiance variations. The most significant correlations occur when the lag time is from 4 and 6 years between irradiance variations and hydroclimatic responses. The physical processes connecting irradiance variations with time-lagged hydroclimatic responses can be explained. Absorption of solar energy by the tropical oceans create ocean-temperature anomalies that are transported by ocean currents over a period of a few (or 4 to 6 years) to locations where the ocean temperature can modify the North American jetstream position and strength, which in turn determines precipitation patterns.. The lag between solar irradiance and hydroclimatic response allows the opportunity for prediction. Variations in solar output also may be driving climate variability at many other time scales. To examine this relation, reported cycles in various climate-proxy data were standardized to a common interval of 7.5 to 15 years by multiplying the cycle length by (2)exp(N), where N equals a positive or negative integer. [For example, 1500(2)exp(-7)=11.72 or 2.6(2)exp(2)=10.4]. The distribution of these standardized cycles is similar to the distribution of the solar-activity cycle since 1700 A.D. A simple additive model for total solar oupout was developed by superimposing a progression of fundamental harmonic cycles with cycle lengths ranging from 10 to 12 years to approximately 90,000 years. Total amplitudes ranged from a 0.1-percent variation for the 10- to 12-year cycle to 0,6 percent for the 90,000-year harmonic cycle. The timeline of this solar-output model was calibrated to the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary at 9,000 years before present. Modeled solar output was compared to geophysical, archaeological, and historical evidence of warm or cold climates during the Holocene. The evidence of several-century periods of cooler (and generally dryer) climates worldwide called "little ice ages," similar to the period 1300 to 1800 A.D. and recurring approximately every 1,300 years, corresponds well with fluctuations in modeled solar output. A more detailed examination of the climate-sensitive history of the last 1,000 years further supports the model. Extrapolation of the model into the future suggests a gradual cooling during the next few centuries with intermittent minor warm periods and a return to near little-ice-age conditions within the next 500 years. This cool period then may be followed approximately 1,500 years from now by a return to altithermal conditions similar the the previous Holocene Maximum. The interglacial period in this model lasts approximately 20,000 years, which is near the average found in the 500,000-year oxygen 16/18-ratio data from Devil's Hole, Nevada. Additional information on Solar Irradiance and Streamflow can be found at: http://ks.water.usgs.gov/waterdata/climate/ Perry, C.A., 2001, A solar kick for climate: the short and long of it [abst.], in Chylek, Petr, and Lesins, Glen, compliers, 1st International Conference on Global Warming and the Next Ice Age, Dalhousie University, August 19-24, 2001, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada: Halifax, Nova Scotia, Dalhousie University, p. 249. To request a paper copy of this abstract, email: cperry@.usgs.gov |
U.S. Department of the Interior |
U.S. Geological Survey
URL: /pubs/abstracts/cap.081901.html
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The USGS has collected hydrologic information in Kansas since 1895 with the first USGS Cooperative
Water Program funding agreement for 6 streamflow gages with the Kansas Water Board. USGS collects streamflow
and gage-height data; reservoir content; water-quality and water-quantity data; suspended-sediment data;
and groundwater levels. Hydrologic studies are conducted on national, regional, statewide, and local levels.
The USGS in Kansas works cooperatively with 31 Federal, State, and local agencies, such as the Kansas Water Office, the U.S.Army Corps of Engineers, and the City of Wichita