The NEMS Petroleum Market Module (PMM) forecasts petroleum product prices
and sources of supply for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources
of supply include crude oil (both domestic and imported), petroleum product
imports, other refinery inputs including alcohols, ethers, bioesters,
natural gas plant liquids production, and refinery processing gain. In
addition, the PMM estimates capacity expansion and fuel consumption of
domestic refineries.
The PMM contains a linear programming representation of U.S. refining activities
in the five Petroleum Area Defense Districts (PADDs) (Figure 9). The model
is created by aggregating individual refineries into one linear programmming
representation for each PADD. This representation provides the marginal
costs of production for a number of conventional and new petroleum products.
In order to interact with other NEMS modules with different regional representations,
certain PMM inputs and outputs are converted from PADD regions to other
regional structures and vice versa. The linear programming results are
used to determine end-use product prices for each Census Division (shown
in Figure 9) using the assumptions and methods described below.
Key Assumptions
Product Types and Specifications
The PMM models refinery production of the products shown in Table 59.
The costs of producing different formulations of gasoline and diesel fuel
that are required by State and Federal regulations are determined within
the linear programming representation by incorporating specifications and
demands for these fuels. The PMM assumes that the specifications for these
fuels will remain the same as currently specified, except that the sulfur
content of all gasoline and diesel fuel will be phased down to reflect
EPA regulations.
Motor Gasoline Specifications and Market Shares
The PMM models the production and distribution of three different types
of gasoline: conventional, oxygenated, and reformulated (Phase 2). The
following specifications are included in PMM to differentiate between conventional
and reformulated gasoline blends (Table 60): Reid vapor pressure (Rvp),
benzene content, aromatic content, sulfur content, olefins content, and
the percent evaporated at 200 and 300 degrees Fahrenheit (E200 and E300).
The sulfur specification for gasoline is reduced to reflect recent regulations
requiring the average annual sulfur content of all gasoline used in the
United States to be phased-down to 30 parts per million (ppm) between the
years 2004 and 2007.95 PMM assumes that RFG has an average annual sulfur
content of 135 ppm in 2000 and meets the 30 ppm requirement in 2004. The
regional assumptions for phasing-down the sulfur in conventional gasoline
account for less stringent sulfur requirements for small refineries and
refineries in the Rocky Mountain region. The 30 ppm annual average standard
is not fully realized in conventional gasoline until 2008 due to allowances
for small refineries. The sulfur specifications assumed for each region
and type are provided in Table 61.
Conventional gasoline must comply with antidumping requirements aimed at
preventing the quality of conventional gasoline from eroding as the reformulated
gasoline program is implemented. Conventional gasoline must meet the Complex
Model II compliance standards which cannot exceed average 1990 levels of
toxic and nitrogen oxide emissions.96
Oxygenated gasoline, which has been required during winter in many U.S.
cities since October of 1992, requires an oxygenated content of 2.7 percent
by weight. Oxygenated gasoline is assumed to have specifications identical
to conventional gasoline with the exception of a higher oxygen requirement.
Some areas that require oxygenated gasoline will also require reformulated
gasoline. For the sake of simplicity, the areas of overlap are assumed
to require gasoline meeting the reformulated specifications.
Cellulosic biomass feedstock supplies and costs are taken from the NEMS
Renewable Fuels Model. Capital and operating costs for biomass ethanol
are derived from an Oak Ridge National Laboratory report97 and the USDA
Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2013.98
Reformulated gasoline has been required in many areas in the United States
since January 1995. In 1998, the EPA began certifying reformulated gasoline
using the Complex Model, which allows refiners to specify reformulated
gasoline based on emissions reductions from their companies' respective
1990 baselines or the EPAs 1990 baseline. The PMM reflects Phase 2
reformulated gasoline requirements which began in 2000. The PMM uses a
set of specifications that meet the complex Model requirements, but it
does not attempt to determine the optimal specifications that meet the
Complex Model. (Table 60).
AEO2006 reflects legislation which bans or limits the use of MTBE in 25
States: Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas,
Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jerxey,
New York, North Carolina, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, Wisconsin,
Washington, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, and Missouri. Furthermore, MTBE is
assumed to phase out by the end of 2008 as a result of Energy Policy Act
of 2005 (EPACT05) which allows refiners to discontinue use of oxygenates
in reformulated gasoline, and on the concern over MTBEs impact to surface
water and groundwater resources. Ethanol is assumed to be the oxygenate
of choice in areas required to use oxygenated gasoline. Ethanol is also
allowed to blend into conventional or reformulated gasoline up to 10 percent
by volume, depending on its blending value and relative cost competitiveness
with other gasoline blending components. EPACT05 requires 7.5 billion
gallons of renewable fuels (mostly ethanol) to be blended into transportation
fuels by 2012. With the world oil price and ethanol cost assumptions for AEO2006, ethanol is projected to be blended at 10 percent in gasoline in
the Midwest and mostly all RFG after 2008.
Rvp limitations are effective during summer months, which are defined differently
in different regions. In addition, different Rvp specifications apply within
each refining region, or PADD. The PMM assumes that these variations in
Rvp are captured in the annual average specifications, which are based
on summertime Rvp limits, wintertime estimates, and seasonal weights.
Within the PMM, total gasoline demand is disaggregated into demand for
conventional, oxygenated, and reformulated gasoline by applying assumptions
about the annual market shares for each type. The shares are able to change
over time based on assumptions about the market penetration of new fuels.
In AEO2006, the annual market shares for each region reflect actual 2004
market shares and are held constant throughout the forecast. (See Table 62
for AEO2006 market share assumptions.)
Diesel Fuel Specifications and Market Shares
In order to account for diesel desulfurization regulations related to CAAA90,
low-sulfur diesel is differentiated from other distillates. In NEMS, Census
Division 9 is required to meet CARB standards. Both Federal and CARB standards,
currently limit sulfur to 500 ppm.
AEO2006 incorporates the ultra-low-sulfur diesel (ULSD) regulation finalized
in December 2000. ULSD is highway diesel that contains no more than 15
ppm sulfur at the pump. The ULSD regulation includes a phase-in period
under the 80/20 rule, that requires the production of a minimum 80 percent
ULSD for highway use between June 2006 and June 2010, and a 100 percent
requirement for ULSD thereafter. As NEMS is an annual average model, only
a portion of the production of highway diesel in 2006 is subject to the
80/20 rule and the 100 percent requirement does not cover all highway diesel
until 2011.
NEMS models ULSD as containing 7.5 ppm sulfur at the refinery gate in 2006,
phasing down to 7ppm sulfur by 2010. This lower sulfur limit at the refinery
reflects the general consensus that refiners will need to produce diesel
with a sulfur content below 10 ppm to allow for contamination during the
distribution process.
Revamping (retrofitting) existing units to produce ULSD will be undertaken
by refineries representing two-thirds of highway diesel production; the
remaining refineries will build new units. The capital cost of the revamp
is assumed to be 50 percent of the cost of adding a new unit.
The capital costs for new distillate hydrotreaters reflected in AEO2006 are $1,804 to $2,507 (2004 dollars) per barrel per day (Inside Battery
Limit). The lower estimate is for a 30,000 barrel per day unit processing
relatively low aromatic streams. The higher estimate is for a 30,000 barrel
per day unit processing higher sulfur feed streams with greater aromatics
improvement.
The amount of ULSD downgraded to a lower value product because of sulfur
contamination in the distribution system is assumed to be 10 percent at
the start of the program, declining to 4.4 percent at full implementation.
The decline reflects the expectation that the distribution system will
become more efficient at handling ULSD with experience.
A revenue loss is assumed to occur when a portion of ULSD that is put into
the distribution system is contaminated and must be sold as lower value
product. The amount of the revenue loss is estimated offline based on
earlier NEMS results and is included in AEO2006 ULSD price projections
as a distribution cost. The revenue loss associated with the 10 percent
downgrade assumption for 2007 is 0.7 cents per gallon. The revenue loss
estimate declines to 0.2 cents per gallon after 2010 when the downgrade
assumption declines to 4.4 percent.
The capital and operating costs associated with ULSD distribution are based
on assumptions used by the EPA in the Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA)
of the rule.99 Capital costs of 0.7 cents per gallon are assumed for additional
storage tanks to handle ULSD during the transition period. These capital
expenditures are assumed to be fully amortized by 2011. Additional operating
costs for distribution of highway diesel of 0.2 cents per gallon are assumed
for the entire forecast. Another 0.2 cents per gallon is assumed for the
cost of lubricity additives. Lubricity additives are needed to compensate
for the reduction of aromatics and high-molecular-weight hydrocarbons stripped
away by the severe hydrotreating used in the desulfurization process.
Demand for highway-grade diesel, both 500 ppm and ULSD combined, is assumed
to be equivalent to total transportation distillate demand. Historically,
highway-grade diesel supplies have nearly matched total transportation
distillate sales, although some highway-grade diesel has gone to nontransportation
uses such as construction and agriculture.
The energy content of ULSD is assumed to decline by 0.5 percent because
undercutting and severe desulfurization will result in a lighter stream
composition than that for 500 ppm diesel.
AEO2006 incorporates the nonroad, locomotive, and marine (NRLM) diesel
regulation finalized in May 2004. The PMM model has been revised to reflect
the nonroad rule and re-calibrated for market shares of highway, NRLM diesel,
and other distillate (mostly heating oil, but excluding jet fuel and kerosene).
The NRLM diesel rule follows the highway diesel rule closely and represents
an incremental tightening of the entire diesel pool. The demand for high
sulfur distillate will diminish over time while the demand for ULSD (both
highway and NRLM) will increase over time.
The final rule is implemented in multiple steps and requires sulfur content
for all NRLM diesel fuel produced by refiners to be reduced to 500 ppm
starting mid-2007 and establishes a new ultra-low-sulfur diesel (ULSD)
limit of 15 ppm for nonroad diesel by mid-2010. For locomotive and marine
diesel, the action establishes a ULSD limit of 15 ppm in mid-2012.
Energy Policy Act of 2005
Numerous provisions of EPACT05 will affect the supply, composition, and
refining of petroleum and related products. Major provisions of EPACT05
represented in the model for AEO2006 are discussed below.
EPACT05 requires the production and use of 4.0 billion gallons of renewable
fuels in 2006, increasing to 7.5 billion gallons by 2012. For calendar
year 2013 and each year thereafter, the minimum required volume of renewable
fuels will be determined as equal to the percentage amount that 7.5 billion
gallons represents of the total gasoline sold in the Nation in 2012. Additionally,
starting in 2013 the renewable fuels shall include a minimum of 250 million
gallons that are derived from cellulosic biomass. Both ethanol and biodiesel
are considered to be renewable fuels receiving one credit towards the
renewable fuels standard for every gallon produced. Ethanol produced
from cellulosic biomass will receive 2.5 credits.
The renewable fuels standard (RFS) is modeled in AEO2006, by setting the
minimum required volumes for the RFS as well as for the ethanol derived
from cellulosic biomass. Actual renewable fuel supplies may or may not
exceed those minimum requirements depending on the relative costs between
renewable fuels and competing petroleum products. For example, in the AEO2006 reference case, more ethanol is projected than the RFS due to cheaper
costs. AEO2006 implicitly reflects the ethanol production and consumption
behavior that resembles the effect of a national RFS credit trading system,
resulting in ethanol blending in gasoline varying by region.
EPACT05 also eliminates the oxygen content requirement for reformulated
gasoline. This provision takes effect 270 days after enactment of EPACT05.
Without the oxygen content requirement, refiners are likely to phase out
methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) in gasoline as soon as practical to
minimize exposure to environmental liabilities in the future. The elimination
of the oxygen requirements for reformulated gasoline (RFG) are modeled
in AEO2006. MTBE is assumed to be completely phased out by the end of
2008 first in the East Coast by 2006, then Mid-Atlantic by 2007, and
finally Texas and Louisiana by 2008. Ethanol is likely to be favored in
RFG blending in most regions still based on economics and its other attractive
blending characteristics, such as its high octane value.
End-Use Product Prices
End-use petroleum product prices are based on marginal costs of production
plus production-related fixed costs plus distribution costs and taxes.
The marginal costs of production are determined by the model and represent
variable costs of production including additional costs for meeting reformulated
fuels provisions of the CAAA90. Environmental costs associated with controlling
pollution at refineries are implicitly assumed in the annual update of
the refinery investment costs for the processing units.
The costs of distributing and marketing petroleum products are represented
by adding product-specific distribution costs to the marginal refinery
costs of products (product wholesale price). The distribution costs are
derived from a set of base distribution markups (Table 63), with 1/3 of
the costs value adjusted in response to the change in product retail price.
For example, given the base markup of 0.25 for transportation sector gasoline
in the NE, the distribution cost would be 2/3 * 0.25 plus 1/3 * (base ratio
of markup to product wholesale price) * product wholesale price. The base
ratio of markup to product wholesale price is set at the beginning of the
forecast using the 2003 product wholesale prices and base distribution
markups. The distribution costs are applied at the Census Division level,
and will vary throughout the forecast and across scenarios
State and Federal taxes are also added to transportation fuels to determine
final end-use prices (Tables 64 and 65). Recent tax trend analysis indicated
that State taxes increase at the rate of inflation, therefore, State taxes
are held constant in real terms throughout the forecast. This assumption
is extended to local taxes which are assumed to average 2 cents per gallon.100 Federal taxes are assumed to remain at current levels in accordance with
the overall AEO2006 assumption of current laws and regulation. Federal
taxes are deflated as follows:
Federal Tax product, year = Current Federal Tax product / GDP Deflator year
Crude Oil Quality
In the PMM, the quality of crude oil is characterized by average gravity
and sulfur levels. Both domestic and imported crude oil are divided into
five categories as defined by the ranges of gravity and sulfur shown in
Table 66.
A composite crude oil with the appropriate yields and qualities is developed
for each category by averaging the characteristics of specific crude oil
streams that fall into each category. While the domestic and foreign categories
are the same, the composite crudes for each category may differ because
different crude streams make up the composites. For domestic crude oil,
estimates of total regional production are made first, then shared out
to each of the five categories based on historical data. For imported crude
oil, a separate supply curve is provided for each of the five categories.
Capacity Expansion
PMM allows for capacity expansion of all processing units including distillation
capacity, vacuum distillation, hydrotreating, coking, fluid catalytic cracking,
hydrocracking, and alkylation manufacture. Capacity expansion occurs by
processing unit, starting from base year capacities established by PADD
using historical data.
Expansion occurs in NEMS when the value received from the additional product
sales exceeds the investment and operating costs of the new unit. The investment
costs assume a financing ratio of 60 percent equity and 40 percent debt,
with a hurdle rate and an after-tax return on investment at about 9 percent.
Capacity expansion plans are done every 3 years. The PMM looks ahead in
2004 and determines the optimal capacities given the estimated demands
and prices expected in the 2007 forecast year. The PMM then allows one-third
of that capacity to be built in each of the forecast years 2005, 2006,
and 2007. At the end of 2007 the cycle begins anew, looking ahead to 2010.
Expansion through 2006 is determined by adding to the existing capacities
of units planned and under construction that are expected to begin operating
during this time, which overwrites the projected capacity expansion by
the model for 2005 and 2006.
Capacity expansion of ethanol plants are not modeled explicitly, but as
a variable in computing ethanol supply curves. A more detailed description
of this process can be found in Appendix I of the PMM documentation, NEMS
Petroleum Market Model Documentation, DOE/EIA-M059(Washington, DC, 2006).
Strategic Petroleum Reserve Fill Rate
AEO2006 assumes no additions for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)
during the forecast period. Any SPR draw is assumed to be in the form
of a swap with a zero net annual change.
Biofuels Supply
The PMM provides supply functions on an annual basis through 2030 for ethanol
produced from both corn and cellulosic biomass to produce transportation
fuel. It also assumes that small amounts of vegetable oil and animal fats
are processed into biodiesel, a blend of methyl esters suitable for fueling
diesel engines.
- Corn feedstock supplies and costs are provided exogenously to NEMS. Feedstock
costs reflect credits for co-products (livestock feed, corn oil, etc.).
Feedstock supplies and costs reflect the competition between corn and its
co-products and alternative crops, such as soybeans and their co-products.
- Current U.S ethanol production capacity is aggregated by Census Division
in the PMM. Cellulose ethanol plants are modeled in all Census Divisions.
However, the growth of cellulose ethanol is dependent on its relative
cost competiveness to corn ethanol and other gasoline blending components.
- The Federal motor fuels excise tax credit to ethanol is 51 cents per
gallon of ethanol (5.1 cents per gallon credit to gasohol at a 10-percent
volumetric blending portion) is applied within the model. The tax credit
is held constant in nominal terms, decreasing with inflation throughout
the forecast. The credit is assumed not to expire during the forecast
period.
Interregional transportation is assumed to be by rail, ship, barge, and
truck and the associated costs are included in PMM. A subsidy is offered
by the Department of Agricultures Commodity Credit Corporation for the
production of biodiesel. In addition, the American Jobs Creation Act of
2004 provides additional tax credit of $1 per gallon soybean oil for biodiesel
and 50 cents per gallon for yellow grease biodiesel until 2006, and EPACT05
extends the credit again to 2008.
Gas-To-Liquids, Coal-To-Liquids, and Gasification Technologies
Gas-to-liquids (GTL) facilities convert natural gas into distillates, and
are assumed to be built if the prices for lower sulfur distillates reach
a high enough level to make it economic. In the PMM, gas-to-liquids facilities
are assumed to be built only on the North Slope of Alaska, where the distillate
product is transported on the Trans-Alaskan Pipeline System (TAPS) to Valdez
and shipped to markets in the lower 48 States. Given estimates showing
that GTL technology is a less profitable means for monetizing the natural
gas on the North Slope relative to an Alaska pipeline to the lower-48 states,
the earliest start date for a GTL facility is set at 2020. Also, the source
of feedstock gas to any GTL facility in Alaska is assumed to be from undiscovered,
non-associated resources which will be more costly than the current, largely
associated proved reserves on the North Slope (assumed dedicated to the
pipeline). The GTL facilities are built incrementally, with output volumes
of 50,000 barrels per day, at a cost of $22,775 per barrel of daily capacity
(2004 dollars). Operating costs are assumed to be $4.25 per barrel (2004
dollars). Transportation cost to ship the GTL product from the North Slope
to Valdez along the TAPS is assumed to be the price set to move oil (i.e.
the TAPS revenue recovery rate). This rate is a function of allowable
costs, profit, and flow, and can change over the projection.
It is also assumed that coal-to-liquids (CTL) facilities will be built
when low-sulfur distillate prices are high enough to make them economic.
One CTL facility is capable of processing 16,400 tons of bituminous coal
per day, with a production capacity of 33,200 barrels of synthetic fuels
per day and 466 megawatts of capacity for electricity cogeneration sold
to the grid.101 A CTL facility of this size is assumed to cost over $2
billion in initial capital investment. CTL facilities could be built near
existing refineries. For the East Coast, potential CTL facilities could
be built near the Delaware River basin; for the Central region, near the
Illinois River basin or near Billings, Montana; and for the West Coast,
in the vicinity of Puget Sound in Washington State. The CTL yields are
assumed to be similar to those from a GTL facility, because both involve
the Fischer-Tropsch process to convert syngas (CO + H2) to liquid hydrocarbons.
The primary yields would be distillate and kerosene, with additional yields
of naphthas and liquefied petroleum gases. Petroleum products from CTL
facilities are assumed to be competitive when distillate prices rise above
the cost of CTL production (adjusted for credits from the sale of cogenerated
electricity). It is assumed that CTL facilities can only be built after
2010.
Gasification of petroleum coke (petcoke) and heavy oil (asphalt, vacuum
resid, etc.) is represented in AEO2005. The PMM assumes petcoke to be
the primary feedstock for gasification, which in turn could be converted
to either combined heat and power (CHP) or hydrogen production based on
refinery economics. A typical gasification facility is assumed to have
a capacity of 2,000 ton-per-day (TPD) which includes the main gasifier
and other integrated units in the refinery such as air separation unit
(ASU), syngas clean-up, sulfur recovery unit (SRU), and two downstream
process options - CHP or hydrogen production. Currently, there is more
than 5,000 TPD gasification capacity in the Nation, producing CHP and hydrogen.
Additional gasification capacity is projected to be built in the AEO2006 projection, primarily for CHP production.
Combined Heat and Power (CHP)
Electricity consumption in the refinery is a function of the throughput
of each unit. Sources of electricity consist of refinery power generation,
utility purchases, refinery CHP, and merchant CHP. Power generators and
CHP plants are modeled in the PMM linear program as separate units which
are allowed to compete along with purchased electricity. Both the refinery
and merchant CHP units provide estimates of capacity, fuel consumption,
and electricity sales to the grid based on historical parameters.
Region |
Percent Sold To Grid |
PADD I |
61.3 |
PADD II |
0.8 |
PADD III |
2.2 |
PADD IV |
0.8 |
PADD V |
45.8 |
|
Refinery sales to the grid are estimated using the following percentages
which are based on 2004 data:
The PMM sells electricity back to the grid in these percentages at a price
equal to the average price of electricity.
Merchant CHP plants are defined as non-refiner owned facilities located
near refineries to provide energy to the open market and to the neighboring
refinery. These sales occur at a price equal to the average of the generation
price and the industrial price of electricity for each PMM region. Electricity
prices are obtained from the Electricity Market Model.
Short-term Methodology
Petroleum balance and price information for the years 2005 and 2006 are
projected at the U.S. level in the Short-term Energy Outlook, (STEO). The
PMM adopts the STEO results for 2005 and 2006, using regional estimates
derived from the national STEO projections.
Legislation and Regulations
The Tax Payer Relief Act of 1997 reduced excise taxes on liquefied petroleum
gases and methanol produced from natural gas. The reductions set taxes
on these products equal to the Federal gasoline tax on a Btu basis.
Title II of CAAA90 established regulations for oxygenated and reformulated
gasoline and reduced-sulfur (500 ppm) on-highway diesel fuel, which are
explicitly modeled in the PMM. Reformulated gasoline represented in the
PMM meets the requirements of phase 2 of the Complex Model, except in the
Pacific region where it meets CARB 3 specifications.
AEO2006 reflects legislation which bans or limits the use of the gasoline
blending component MTBE in the following states: Arizona, California, Colorado,
Connecticut, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Maine,
Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New
York, North Carolina, Ohio, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, Washington,
and Wisconsin.
AEO2006 reflects Tier 2" Motor Vehicle Emissions Standards and Gasoline
Sulfur Control Requirements finalized by EPA in February 2000. This regulation
requires that the average annual sulfur content of all gasoline used in
the United States be phased-down to 30 ppm between the years 2004 and 2007.
The 30 ppm annual average standard is not fully realized in conventional
gasoline until 2008 due to allowances for small refineries.
AEO2006 reflects Heavy-Duty Engine and Vehicle Standards and Highway Diesel
Fuel Sulfur Control Requirements finalized by the EPA in December 2000.
Between June 2006 and June 2010, this regulation requires that 80 percent
of highway diesel supplies contain no more than 15 ppm sulfur while the
remaining 20 percent of highway diesel supplies contain no more than 500
ppm sulfur. After June 2010, all highway diesel is required to contain
no more than 15 ppm sulfur at the pump.
AEO2006 reflects nonroad locomotive and marine (NRLM) diesel requirements
finalized by the EPA in May 2004. Between June 2007 and June 2010, this
regulation requires that nonroad diesel supplies contain no more than 15
ppm sulfur. For locomotive and marine diesel, the action establishes a
NRLM limit of 15 ppm in mid-2012.
AEO2006 incorporates the American Jobs Creation Act of 2004 to extend the
Federal tax credit of 51 cents per gallon of ethanol blended into gasoline
through 2010.
AEO2006 represents major provisions in the Energy Policy Act of 2005 concerning
the petroleum industry, including: 1) 7.5 billion gallons of renewable
fuels (mostly ethanol) by 2012; 2) removal of oxygenate requirement in
RFG; and 3) extension of tax credit of $1 per gallon for soybean oil biodiesel
and $0.50 per gallon for yellow grease biodiesel through 2008.
Lifting the ban on exporting Alaskan crude oil was passed and signed into
law (PL 104-58) in November 1995. Alaskan exports of crude oil have represented
about 60 percent of U.S. crude oil exports since November 1995 and are
assumed to equal 60 percent of total U.S. crude oil exports in the forecast.
Petroleum Market Tables
Petroleum Market Notes |