28 October 2010

Popularity, Effectiveness Determine Obama’s Midterm Campaigning

By Stephen Kaufman
Staff Writer

Washington — President Obama was warmly welcomed to the popular comedy program The Daily Show, but during his lengthy interview with host Jon Stewart, it became clear the president had not come to tell jokes or offer humorous anecdotes about White House life.

With congressional Democrats facing tough challenges in the 2010 midterm elections, the comedy show’s first interview with a sitting U.S. president was very much a campaign stop.

“We prevented a second Great Depression, we’ve stabilized the economy, an economy that was shrinking is now growing, we’ve got nine months of consecutive private-sector job growth, we have passed historic health care reform, historic financial regulatory reform, we have done things that some folks don’t even know about,” Obama told Stewart and his audience October 27.

While defending his record before the show’s largely younger and left-of-center viewers, Obama used his star power to boost enthusiasm among a voting demographic that many pollsters predict will stay away from the polls and indirectly help an energized Republican electorate make huge gains on November 2.

“Go out there and vote November 2nd,” Obama urged at the end of the interview.

Like his predecessors, Obama has traveled all over the United States for the past few months to appear at campaign rallies on behalf of his party’s candidates and has embraced the role of political surrogate that, as the leader of the Democratic Party, he is expected to play during the campaign season. His Daily Show appearance follows more than 25 political campaign trips in 2010 on behalf of Democratic candidates.

Political surrogates play an important role in U.S. campaigns by appearing at public events a candidate cannot attend and by lending their popularity to lesser-known candidates in an effort to encourage more voters to recognize and support them.

Former Alaska governor and vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin is stumping for several Republican candidates, especially those identified with the tea party movement. Other prominent Republican surrogates include former House of Representatives Speaker Newt Gingrich and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal.

The decision over when and where to deploy a famous surrogate depends on two key factors. When the surrogate is in high demand, the decision comes down to where party leaders feel the surrogate will be the most effective, such as in tight races or in crucial election districts.

The second factor centers on the surrogate’s popularity. President Obama’s popularity may be strong among left-leaning states, but in other areas — especially conservative strongholds — he can be a polarizing figure and it could be better for the Democratic candidate if he stays away.

An August 4 Los Angeles Times article observed Obama’s planned 2010 campaign stops showed “insights into the harsh reality” that the November 2 vote could bring Democratic losses. “For political reasons, the president needs to avoid some candidates, and some candidates need to avoid him. In competitive races where Democrats think Obama’s help could be the difference, he’ll go.”

The risk is not borne just by the candidates. Surrogates also stand to lose from poorly chosen campaign stops. In the same article, the Times noted the president stayed away from Alexi Giannoulias’ campaign to fill Obama’s former Senate seat in Illinois at a time when Giannoulias appeared to be losing the race.

“Fair or not, each time Obama gets behind a losing campaign, analysts define the result as a measure of the president’s coattails. Despite Obama’s popularity in Illinois, if he makes numerous appearances for Giannoulias and the candidate loses, the president knows the story will be that he could not even elevate a fellow Democrat in his home state,” the Times article said.

PRESIDENTIAL SPOUSES

Like his predecessor, President George W. Bush, President Obama seeks to overcome a slump in his approval rating by sending the more popular first lady out on the campaign trail as a surrogate.

Even though presidential spouses hold unelected, unpaid positions without constitutional responsibilities, they are still influential political celebrities, and are able to speak authoritatively on behalf of their partners.

Because they do not have the responsibility for presidential decisions, the president’s spouse frequently is more popular than the president.

According to an October 14 report by National Public Radio (NPR), first lady Michelle Obama has a national popular approval rating above 60 percent, compared to the president’s showing at below 50 percent.

The 2010 midterms have seen Michelle Obama’s first political appearances since the 2008 presidential campaign. “As one of the most popular people in the Obama administration, or among national Democrats, she really didn’t really have much of a choice,” NPR said.

Former President Bill Clinton also is traveling around the country on behalf of Democrats. Clinton remains a highly prized surrogate in 2010; he was uniquely effective during the 2008 presidential campaign of his wife, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.

In 2008, Bill Clinton was able to capitalize on the popularity he had gained since leaving the White House, effectively combining the advantages of political spouse and former president. He was uniquely qualified to convince voters his wife would be the best person to fill the position he once held.

(This is a product of the Bureau of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://www.america.gov)