CBO regularly assesses the state of the economy and the impact on the economy of proposed changes in federal spending and taxes. Analysts prepare economic projections that underlie CBO’s projections for the federal budget and cost estimates for proposed legislation; study major aspects of the economy such as trends in productivity and long-term unemployment; and examine the economic impact of changes in the nation’s tax system or reforms to federal programs.
Economy
featured work
The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023Feb 2013 - Under current law, federal debt will stay at historically high levels relative to the economy, CBO projects. Economic growth will be slow in 2013 but pick up thereafter. Even so, the unemployment rate will be above 7.5 percent through 2014.
Macroeconomic Effects of Alternative Budgetary PathsFeb 2013 - CBO examined three budgetary paths that would increase or reduce budget deficits relative to current law. Through 2023, those paths would result in considerably different trajectories of federal debt and the nation’s output and income.
What Accounts for the Slow Growth of the Economy After the Recession?Nov 2012 - During the three years following the recession in 2008 and 2009, the economy’s output grew at less than half the rate seen, on average, during other economic recoveries in the United States since the end of World War II.
Choices for Deficit ReductionNov 2012 - Putting the federal budget on a more sustainable path is likely to require a combination of policies, many of which may stand in stark contrast to policies now in place.
Economic Effects of Policies Contributing to Fiscal Tightening in 2013Nov 2012 - Significant tax increases and spending cuts are slated to take effect in January 2013, sharply reducing the federal budget deficit and causing, by CBO’s estimates, a decline in economic output and an increase in unemployment.
Long-Term Budget OutlookJun 2012 - The explosive path of federal debt under the fiscal scenario that many budget analysts believe is more representative of fiscal policies that are now or have recently been in effect underscores the need for large policy changes to put the federal government on a sustainable course.
The Economic Impact of the President's 2013 BudgetApr 2012 - CBO analyzes the potential effects of the President's budget on the economy and, in turn, the impact of those macroeconomic effects on the federal budget.
Policies for Increasing Economic Growth and Employment in 2012 and 2013Nov 2011 - Testimony before the Committee on the Budget, U.S. Senate
latest work
CBO Testifies on the Budget and Economic Outlook
blog postFebruary 15, 2013Testimony on the Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023
reportFebruary 13, 2013Testimony on the Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023
reportFebruary 12, 2013Economic Growth Is Likely to Be Slow in 2013 and Pick Up in Later Years
blog postFebruary 7, 2013The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023
reportFebruary 5, 2013Macroeconomic Effects of Alternative Budgetary Paths
reportFebruary 5, 2013Baseline Economic Forecast—February 2013 Baseline Projections
data or technical informationFebruary 5, 2013Estimates of Potential GDP and the Related Unemployment Rate, January 1991 to February 2013
data or technical informationFebruary 5, 2013
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