:Product: 1226RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Dec 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
26/0455Z from Region 1635 (N12W32). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (27 Dec, 28 Dec, 29 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 336 km/s at
25/2322Z. Total IMF reached 6.6 nT at 26/1144Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 26/1052Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (27 Dec, 28
Dec, 29 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Dec 110
Predicted   27 Dec-29 Dec 110/115/115
90 Day Mean        26 Dec 119

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Dec  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec  005/005-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           10/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/10/05