:Product: 0122RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Jan 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 22 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (23 Jan, 24 Jan, 25 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 362 km/s at
21/2124Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 288 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (23 Jan, 24
Jan, 25 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jan 110
Predicted   23 Jan-25 Jan 110/110/105
90 Day Mean        22 Jan 121

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan  002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan  004/005-006/005-006/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/25