:Product: 0117RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Jan 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 17 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Jan,
19 Jan, 20 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
456 km/s at 17/0305Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 17/1526Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -14.1 nT at 17/1448Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at
17/1415Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1135 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at minor storm levels on day one (18 Jan), active levels on day
two (19 Jan), and minor storm levels again on day three (20 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jan 123
Predicted   18 Jan-20 Jan 125/125/120
90 Day Mean        17 Jan 123

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan  008/010-010/015-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/35
Minor Storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    30/35/55