:Product: 0107RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Jan 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 7 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
07/0852Z from Region 1640 (N28W87). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
with a chance for moderate levels on days one, two, and three (08 Jan,
09 Jan, 10 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 385 km/s at
07/1934Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 07/0126Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5.8 nT at 07/0327Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet with a chance of unsettled levels for the next three days
(08 Jan, 09
Jan, 10 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
Class M    35/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jan 150
Predicted   08 Jan-10 Jan 150/145/140
90 Day Mean        07 Jan 120

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan  006/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan  006/008-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/10
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    15/05/15