Moving Into the Peak Season
Posted: 07:28 AM 03 August 2017 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 08:29 AM 03-Aug EDT
In the far east Atlantic, a wave has emerged from Africa in a very good position to develop, and because of this the National Hurricane Center requested an investigation area be put on it almost immediately. This system, tagged as 99L now has a 50% chance for development and multiple model support for it, so it's likely by the weekend we'll have a depression or named storm to track across the Atlantic. This does not guarantee a system will make it across, but history tells us that everything this time of year should be monitored closely.
If it were to develop and maintain itself it would likely be closest to the Caribbean in the middle of next week, and closer to the US late next week. See the forecast lounge for long range discussion and speculation on the system. There are factors that could keep it weak and hamper development, so out this far its impossible to say where or how strong it could be.
There may be other areas to track next week as well, watch for a potential area near the Yucatan / Bay of Campeche.
99L (East Atlantic Wave) Event Related Links
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 99L
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 99L
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 99L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 99L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 99L -- RAMMB Info
Floater Satellite Images:
Visible
(Loop),
IR
(Loop),
WV
(Loop),
Dvorak
(Loop),
AVN
(Loop),
RGB
(Loop),
Rainbow
(Loop),
Funktop
(Loop),
RB Top
Loop)
90L (Caribbean Wave) Event Related Links
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 90L
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 90L
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 90L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 90L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 90L -- RAMMB Info
Floater Satellite Images:
Visible
(Loop),
IR
(Loop),
WV
(Loop),
Dvorak
(Loop),
AVN
(Loop),
RGB
(Loop),
Rainbow
(Loop),
Funktop
(Loop),
RB Top
Loop)
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations
Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)
San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Facebook Update Posted
04:25 am 04-Aug-2017 EDT
Good morning! The disturbance that has a high probability of becoming a tropical depression will definitely bear watching as we move forward; the GFS brings this system all the way across the basin and brings it up into the Bahama in about 8 to 9 days and the Florida coast in 9 to 10 days. I was just wanted to let everybody know we see it but there is absolutely no way we're going to attempt to predict where this system is likely to go for at least another 5 days and we have run to run consistency with this system. A lot of things can change between now and this time next week. Stay tune!
Facebook Update Posted
07:49 pm 03-Aug-2017 EDT
Two waves chanes East Atlantic/99L (80%) and another in the Caribbean 90L (40%) both should be watched.
Facebook Update Posted
02:48 pm 03-Aug-2017 EDT
Two waves in watch, one in the East Atlantic (70%) and another in the Caribbean (20%) both should be watched.
Facebook Update Posted
07:58 am 03-Aug-2017 EDT
Watching a wave in the far east Atlantic (99L) with a 60% chance for development. One to watch for next week.
Facebook Update Posted
07:28 am 03-Aug-2017 EDT
New Article: Moving Into the Peak Season https://t.co/A1iFilgcud
Facebook Update Posted
07:16 am 03-Aug-2017 EDT
Watching a wave in the far east Atlantic (99L) with a 50% chance for development. One to watch for next week.
Inside the Eye - Official National Hurricane Center Blog
Skeetobite's storm track maps
NRL-Monterey (Nice Tracking Maps and Satellite)
USNO Information on Current Storms (including Google Earth KMZ Files)
Experimental forecast storm probabilities from Dr. Alan Brammer
Goes 16 Satellite Images (new for 2017)
College of DuPage Animated Goes 16 loop of Gulf of Mexico
Large Color Southeast Satellite Image
Interactive Wundermap
San Jose State Models and More
Animated Earth Wind view of Tropical Atlantic
NOAA Historical Track Maps - Create your own tracking maps.
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here: Global SST Animation - SST Forecast.
Storms From Previous Years (Unisys)
IR - Vis - WV - Loop - TWC IR - Color IR - Loop - SSTs - Buoy
NASA MSFC North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images, RAMSDIS Satellite Images (rapid-scan imagery)
Full Western Hemisphere Sat Animation
Buoy Data, Dvorak Estimates
Caribbean Weather Observations
Some forecast models:
NHC/TAFB Experimental Gridded Marine Forecast
GFS, ECMWF (ECMWF) and ECMWF Tropical Tidbits model page (GFS + more)
FSU: CMC, GFDL, GFS, NOGAPS, HWRF; Phase Analysis
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFS, RUC, ETA
FIM Model
American Weather/Raleighwx model page, Instant Weather Maps Models
Other commentary from Tropical Tidbits (Levi Cowan), Jeff Masters (Weather Underground) , Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), Hurricane City (Jim Williams) , Mike Watkins / HurricaneAnalytics.com, WXRisk, TropicalAtlantic, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Hardcoreweather, StormPulse (Matthew Wensing), , Mike's Weather Page, Greg Nordstrom, Gulf Coast Weather, American Weather - 28 Storms Ham Weather, Suncam TV (Streaming Video/cams), Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update
NOAA Weather Radio
Flhurricane Ustream Video Stream (Active only in certain events)
CFHC Weather Stations: Orlando (Universal) - Cocoa (Lake Poinsette) -
Even more on the links page.