Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) Ecosystem Change and Hazard Suseptibility Project - Overview

• Introduction
• Statement of Problem
• Goals/Objections
• Organization/Approach

Goals and Objectives

Regional scale interdisciplinary investigations of the geological - geomorphological - biophysical structure, physical and ecological processes, and spatial patterns of community vulnerability to storm hazards of the northern Gulf of Mexico landscape are a high national priority following the devastating hurricanes of 2005.

Northern Gulf of Mexico Holocene geologic and climate evolution, historical ecosystem change, present and projected future ecosystem structure, and the associated hazards to human populations will be investigated in parallel within integrated scientific findings. Such an approach presents the greatest opportunity for harmonizing the massive human community recovery effort with the essential natural landscape restoration. Community redevelopment, urban recovery efforts, and regional - scale coastal planning can be attempted with or without the benefit and consideration of the natural landscape patterns, coastal processes, and ecological integrity. However, urban planning, coastal restoration and hazard mitigation planning based on a sound scientific understanding will more likely lead to predictable and positive results.

The U.S. Geological Survey is the only agency that can provide a large - scale, systematic, integrated approach to realizing a comprehensive understanding of coastal response to hazards.

The variable time scale, landscape to local scale, discipline - integrated study described by this project plan is aimed at developing the knowledge base required to answer the following broad questions:

• What is the current assessment of ecosystem vulnerability to storm hazards across the northern Gulf of Mexico coast?
• What are the processes, both natural and anthropogenic, that affect coastal vulnerability?
• What are the likely impacts/risks from natural hazards (e.g., hurricanes, sea-level change) to Gulf Coast human populations and infrastructure over the coming century?
• How can we provide the appropriate science information and knowledge of future risk such that coastal rebuilding and restoration plans increase coastal resiliency.
• Can we use this information to help sustain economic and natural resources and mitigate the effects from future storms?

The increased knowledge that will result from valid answers to these questions will allow restoration and hazard mitigation activities to be evaluated with a more complete understanding of their probable effects on coastal ecosystems and communities and a full assessment of coastal vulnerability to natural and human driven change.

This goal is in direct response to the demonstrated need for increased knowledge of landscape evolution on geologic and human time scales, and the implications of such changes in the natural and built components of the landscape for hurricane impact susceptibility.

Implicit in this project plan is the recognition that the complexity of the Gulf coast landscape requires an appropriately time and space scaled “earth system science” approach aimed at understanding the response of linked elements of coastal systems to multiple stressors and influences. An effective approach must develop information and understanding that addresses the regional scope of coastal change.

Accordingly, the primary objectives of this project are to:

• Reconstruct the geologic history of the region (Holocene 6000 years). This includes geologic stratigraphy, paleoenvironments, climate and sea-level histories of the eastern Louisiana to western Florida coastal and inner shelf region.
• Evaluate the broad historical long-term evolution of the NGOM coast landscape driven by broad spatial scale physical processes of sea-level rise, subsidence, and storm short-term events.
• Provide a regional synthesis of present day NGOM coast ecosystem and human community structure, and forecast the evolution of this landscape over the next century.
• Anticipate the susceptibility of NGOM coast ecosystems and human communities to severe storms throughout the coming century.