The Six Presidents
- Iran’s constitution vests ultimate authority in the supreme leader, but the presidency has developed into a powerful office.
- The last three presidents have each stamped his own personality and politics on social and economic life, domestic politics and foreign policy.
- Powerful presidents have also aroused powerful opposition. Presidential administrations have been characterized by factionalism between the president’s party and his opponents. They have also been driven by tension over authority between the president and the supreme leader.
- The presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad seems a departure from the past. He is building up a power base among the same constituencies in the military, judiciary and security agencies that are the supreme leader’s base of support. This trend, if sustained, has important future implications.
- Khamenei outmaneuvered and neutralized both Rafsanjani and Khatami, whose basic policies he did not always embrace. Khamenei initially supported Ahmadinejad, but the distance between the two men has been growing.
- Ahmadinejad has been able to build a base of support among the very constituencies on which Khamenei depends: The Revolutionary Guards, the paramilitary forces, the security agencies and the judiciary.
- The Revolutionary Guards, the security agencies and their branches crushed the Green Movement that emerged to protest the contested 2009 election. They are claiming an increasingly larger role in political affairs.
- Allegations of vote tampering in the 2009 election could impact what happens in the next elections for parliament in 2012 and president in 2013. The key issues are: First, whether those in power—fearing re-emergence of the Green Movement and determined to hold onto power—will try to influence the outcome. Second, whether the Green Movement will put up—or be allowed to—run candidates. Third, how much of the electorate will turn out to vote.
Preview | Attachment | Size |
---|---|---|
The Six Presidents.pdf | 167.21 KB |
"The Iran Primer"--Book Overview
“The Iran Primer” brings together 50 top experts—both Western and Iranian—to offer comprehensive but concise overviews of Iran’s politics, economy, military, foreign policy, and nuclear program. Each link on this site connects to a complete chapter on one of 62 subjects in 10 categories. Printable PDF attachments also are at the bottom of each chapter. New analysis is added weekly, based on recent developments in Iran.
The book also chronicles U.S.-Iran relations under six U.S. presidents. It probes five policy options. And it offers a data base of chronologies, nuclear sites, sanctions resolutions and other information. Since Iran's 1979 revolution, the West has struggled to understand the Islamic Republic and how to deal with it. The challenge looms even larger in the face of Iran’s controversial nuclear program, disputed 2009 election, growing human rights violations, and angry rhetoric. “The Iran Primer” offers context and analysis for what lies ahead.
To order the book:
http://bookstore.usip.org/books/BookDetail.aspx?productID=278856