Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Outlook

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS 

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 

830AM EST THU JAN 17 2013 
 


MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FEBRUARY 2013 
 


SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE AROUND NEGATIVE HALF DEGREE TO NEGATIVE ONE DEGREE C. 
 
FOR JANUARY 2012 THROUGH THE END OF DECEMBER, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: 
 
- LIHUE AIRPORT 41.03 INCHES (111 PERCENT OF NORMAL) 
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 8.60 INCHES (50 PERCENT OF NORMAL) 
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 6.09 INCHES (34 PERCENT OF NORMAL) 
- HILO AIRPORT 90.39 INCHES (71 PERCENT OF NORMAL) 
 
NCEP MODELS PREDICT BELOW NORMAL SSTS CONTINUING INTO THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2013, WITH ANOMALIES STRONGEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS, FAVORING BELOW NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES FOR HILO AND KAHULUI IN FEBRUARY 2013. NCEP TOOLS PREDICT BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IN FEBRUARY 2013. 
 
 
 

 
  TEMPERATURE   PRECIPITATION
   FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
HILO  B40  71.4  0.5  B40  5.0  8.4  11.1
KAHULUI  B40  71.9  0.6  B40  0.9  1.1  1.8
HONOLULU   EC  73.3  0.5  B40  0.7  1.0  1.4
LIHUE   EC  71.7  0.6  B40  1.3  1.8  4.0
 
 

SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FMA 2013 - FMA 2014 
 


REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE INCREASINGLY BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RECENTLY - NEGATIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES - ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPWELLING KELVIN WAVE, HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND HAVE STRENGTHENED. WEAK EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES ARE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC - WHILE WESTERLY WIND ANOMALIES ARE EVIDENT NEAR INDONESIA AND THE FAR WESTERN PACIFIC. POSITIVE OLR ANOMALIES WERE EVIDENT NEAR THE DATE LINE, WHILE NEGATIVE OLR ANOMALIES OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN AND INDONESIA HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD. MOST SST MODELS INDICATED ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. OVERALL ENSO-NEUTRAL IS FAVORED THROUGH NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SPRING 2013. 
 
 
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HILO AND KAHULUI IN FMA 2013. THIS SIGNAL COMES MAINLY FROM THE CLIMATE MODEL FORECASTS FOR PERSISTING BELOW NORMAL SST'S SURROUNDING THE SOUTHEASTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. THE NMME MODEL PREDICTS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IN FMA 2013. 
 
 


 HILO
 TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
   FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
FMA 2013  B40  71.7  0.4  B40  24.6  34.1  45.5
MAM 2013   EC  72.0  0.5   EC  22.5  28.4  34.0
AMJ 2013   EC  72.9  0.5   EC  21.4  23.7  29.0
MJJ 2013   EC  74.0  0.4   EC  20.2  27.5  29.1
JJA 2013   EC  75.2  0.4   EC  19.4  27.2  31.4
JAS 2013   EC  76.1  0.4   EC  25.2  28.6  33.4
ASO 2013   EC  76.4  0.4   EC  26.1  28.8  33.3
SON 2013   EC  76.2  0.4   EC  24.3  30.2  40.8
OND 2013   EC  75.5  0.4   EC  28.3  34.5  42.0
NDJ 2013   EC  74.2  0.4   EC  26.4  36.6  43.0
DJF 2014   EC  72.8  0.4   EC  19.6  30.2  33.3
JFM 2014   EC  71.8  0.4   EC  22.0  32.0  44.5
FMA 2014   EC  71.7  0.4   EC  24.6  34.1  45.5
 
 


 KAHULUI
 TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
   FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
FMA 2013  B40  72.3  0.4  B40  3.2  4.1  6.4 
MAM 2013   EC  73.0  0.4   EC  2.5  3.5  4.6 
AMJ 2013   EC  74.3  0.5   EC  1.2  1.6  2.2 
MJJ 2013   EC  76.0  0.5   EC  0.7  1.1  1.8 
JJA 2013   EC  77.7  0.4   EC  0.7  1.1  1.5 
JAS 2013   EC  79.0  0.4   EC  0.8  1.1  1.6 
ASO 2013   EC  79.4  0.4   EC  0.8  1.6  2.5 
SON 2013   EC  79.1  0.4   EC  2.1  3.3  4.8 
OND 2013   EC  77.8  0.4   EC  4.2  5.3  8.1 
NDJ 2013   EC  75.9  0.4   EC  5.2  7.6  9.5 
DJF 2014   EC  73.8  0.4   EC  4.6  6.9  8.7 
JFM 2014   EC  72.5  0.4   EC  4.2  6.2  8.2 
FMA 2014   EC  72.3  0.4   EC  3.2  4.1  6.4 
 
 


 HONOLULU
 TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
   FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
FMA 2013   EC  73.8  0.4  B40  1.9  3.2  4.7 
MAM 2013   EC  74.8  0.4   EC  1.8  2.6  3.0 
AMJ 2013   EC  76.3  0.4   EC  1.2  1.6  1.8 
MJJ 2013   EC  78.2  0.4   EC  0.8  1.4  1.6 
JJA 2013   EC  79.9  0.4   EC  0.7  0.8  1.3 
JAS 2013   EC  81.3  0.4   EC  1.0  1.4  1.7 
ASO 2013   EC  81.7  0.4   EC  1.6  2.4  3.1 
SON 2013   EC  81.4  0.4   EC  2.5  4.0  5.6 
OND 2013   EC  80.0  0.4   EC  4.4  6.4  8.5 
NDJ 2013   EC  77.7  0.5   EC  3.9  5.6  8.8 
DJF 2014   EC  75.3  0.5   EC  3.7  5.6  8.6 
JFM 2014   EC  73.9  0.4   EC  2.1  4.6  7.8 
FMA 2014   EC  73.8  0.4   EC  1.9  3.2  4.7 
 
 


 LIHUE
 TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
   FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
FMA 2013   EC  72.1  0.5  B40  5.8  8.4  9.9 
MAM 2013   EC  72.8  0.5   EC  5.3  6.6  8.0 
AMJ 2013   EC  74.2  0.5   EC  4.7  5.5  6.0 
MJJ 2013   EC  76.0  0.5   EC  4.9  5.4  5.9 
JJA 2013   EC  77.7  0.4   EC  4.4  5.3  6.9 
JAS 2013   EC  79.0  0.3   EC  5.3  6.1  7.8 
ASO 2013   EC  79.4  0.3   EC  6.2  7.9  8.4 
SON 2013   EC  79.1  0.3   EC  9.2  10.0  11.2
OND 2013   EC  77.8  0.3   EC  9.2  11.7  15.6
NDJ 2013   EC  75.7  0.3   EC  8.6  12.1  16.9
DJF 2014   EC  73.6  0.4   EC  7.5  8.4  14.0
JFM 2014   EC  72.2  0.4   EC  6.5  8.8  13.8
FMA 2014   EC  72.1  0.5   EC  5.8  8.4  9.9 
 
 

FORECASTER: LUKE HE 
 


ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS 


 
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. 


 
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS.  WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.  ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU FEB 21, 2013.
 
 
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