National Weather Service
Professional Development Series
Professional Competency Unit

Severe Convection Forecasting and Warnings

PCU 5: Analyzing Structure of Convective Storms to Assess Storm Intensity and Evolution

Producer: Jim LaDue, WDTB

Description of Job Duty Competency to be Achieved

Determine the structure of convective storms to assess severe weather warning threat.

Description of Need

To determine which storms will be considered for warnings, a forecaster needs to interrogate the four-dimensional attributes of each storm.

Specific Job Task Skills and Knowledge

1. Analyze storm structure and determine any associated hazardous weather using WSR-88D output (base data and algorithms) and other observational data.

2. Analyze the four-dimensional evolution of convective storms using all available data sources.

Instructional Components

Instructional Component 5.1 Ordinary and supercell morphology and hazards

Review the WSR-88D Distance Learning Operations Course DLOC student guide (Convective Storm Structure and Evoluton, Instructional Component 5.7 of DLOC (pages 33 - 113). A teletraining session of this section is also available for downloading .
Review the material from the Pulse Storm Downburst page.
Review Tornado Warning Guidance 2002 .
View the following presentations given at the DLOC workshop

Severe Storm Structure Interpretation - the first half (.shw, 7.33 mb)
Forecasting Supercell tornadoes (.ppt 6.09 mb)
Flash Flooding Topics (.shw, 12.98 MB)

Take the COMET module on predicting supercell motion using hodograph techniques by Matt Bunkers
Take Lightning Met I and Lightning Met II from the Virtual Institute of Satellite Integration Training (VISIT)
Take "Mesoanalysis of Convective Weather using GOES RSO imagery" from VISIT.
Review "The Enhanced-V: A satellite severe weather signature" from VISIT
Review "Three Classes of Storm Top Signatures in Infrared Satellite Imagery" from NSSL

Instructional Component 5.2 Multicell morphology and hazards

Review the DLOC student guide (Convective Storm Structure and Evoluton, Instructional Component 5.7 of DLOC (pages 113 - 174). A teletraining session of this section is also available for downloading (this section is in the day 2 version).
Review the COMET web module on Mesoscale Convective Systems
View the following presentations given at the DLOC workshop

Severe Storm Structure Interpretation - the second half (.shw, 7.33 mb)

Review the following talks from the Warning Decision IV workshop

A detailed look at extreme wind damage in derecho events (ppt, 3.8 mb)
Forecasting the Onset of damaging winds associated with a squall line/bow echo using the Mid-Altitude Radial Convergence (MARC) signature (ppt, 14 mb)
Overview of storm and vortex morphology during the 'intensifying stage' of Mesoscale Convective System evolution (ppt, 8.1 mb)

Instructional Component 5.3 Review the Pre-brief sections of the Weather Event Simulator (WES) Simulation Guides.

Instructional Component 5.4 Review Anticipating Convective Storm Structure and Evolution (A CD-ROM available from COMET).

More Recommended Information

1. Several good papers on convective storm evolution are documented on the reference guide and associated bibliography section of the DLOC Convective Storm Structure and Evolution Student Guide, pages 189-197. Or, you may access this references page.

2. The WSR-88D Operator's Guide to Mesocyclone Recognition and Diagnosis (OSF, 1995, 111 pp). This Guide is a large, spiral-bound manual that is PUP-based but still contains some important doppler radar recognition principles that are valid with 88D products on AWIPS. (Limited copies available on request)

3. Mesocyclone Characteristics of Mini Supercell Thunderstorms (AMS WAF paper,1996).

4. Elements of a Strong and Successful Severe Weather Program , an ER technical paper (use your NOAA email user name and password for access).

5. Les Lemon's Severe Thunderstorm Radar Identification Techniques and Warning Criteria. NOAA Tech. Memo, NWS NSSFC-3 NTIS #PB81-234809 67 pp. Written before the WSR-88D era and still completely relevant.

6. Rasmussen, Eric and collaborators, 2002 (update): Severe Storms Research. http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/ssr/index.htm

7. Stumpf, Greg and collaborators, 2002 (update): SWAT's WSR-88D Mesocyclone and Tornado Signature Case Study Page. http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/swat/Cases/cases_pix.html

Implementation and Evaluation Tasks

Evaluations are achievable via one-on-one training sessions using the Interval or Situational Awareness simulation methods.

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This page last modified 03/2003

National Weather Service Professional Development Series Professional Competency Unit