Sea Level Rise and Climate: Impacts on the Greater Everglades Ecosystem and Restoration

Project Investigator: G. Lynn Wingard Project Personnel: Christopher Bernhardt, Thomas M. Cronin, Marci Marot, James Murray, Thomas Sheehan, Bethany Stackhouse, Frank Marshall, Tara L. Colley Project Start Date: 2009 End Date: 2014 Recent Funding: (FY12) USGS GE PES, (FY11) USGS GE PES, (FY10) USGS GE PES Work Plans Data Metadata Project Location Map

This project will address the questions of rates and impacts of sea level rise on the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) by utilizing paleoecologic tools and salinity models to examine changes to the Greater Everglades Ecosystem over the past 500-3000 years. Historical rates of change will be compared to potential sea level rise conditions under different IPCC climate change scenarios. The relationship between sea level, salinity, habitats and biota will be examined, and ecologic indicators of sea level rise will be identified.

In FY10 we will initiate an analysis of the relationship between salinity and sea level rise, focusing on the southwest coastal mangrove ecotone. A preliminary list of indicator species/assemblages will be compiled for determining migration of the saltwater/freshwater transition zone. We will compile existing records from USGS, Penn State, and other databases that provide information on position of sea level in the later part of the Holocene for South Florida and relationships between climate patterns and sea level.

Future years will build on initial work in FY10, starting with application of existing historical salinity models for the estuaries to predict future salinities under various IPCC scenarios. Core data will be compiled from existing cores, and new cores collected if necessary to fill in information gaps. Rates of sea level rise will be estimated for South Florida, and compared to IPCC projections of future rates.

Work Plans

• 2010

Data

• Ecosystem History of South Florida Estuaries Data (from the data exchange pages)

Metadata

• Sea Level Rise and Climate: Impacts on the Greater Everglades Ecosystem and Restoration (project metadata)
• 1995 - 2007 Ecosystem History of South Florida's Estuaries Database (data set metadata)
• 2008 - Present Ecosystem History of South Florida's Estuaries Database (data set metadata)