ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/27/13 2245Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-15 2230Z KUSSELSON DMSP SSMIS: 1904Z/1741Z NASA TRMM:2020Z NOAA AMSU:2011Z . LOCATION...N AND WESTERN HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...AKRFC... . EVENT...RAIN RATES MORE IMPRESSIVE FURTHER NORTH ALONG FRONT...BUT LATEST TRMM PASS SHOWED MODERATE RATES ORIENTED W TO E JUST WEST OF KAUAI...SO A REASON FOR CONCERN... . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LARGE FORCING MECHANISM WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS AND IN PARTICULAR KAUAI. BUT FURTHER SOUTH DOWN TO KAUAI'S LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING SLOWER AND ORIENTATION OF FRONT AND PRECIP BAND MORE IN LINE WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATE PWAT MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOT THE BEST THERE WAS SOME 700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE WEST AND SW CONVERGING WITH 850MB SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM SECOND MOISTURE SOURCE OF THE TROPICS WHICH WAS TENDING TO MAKE UP FOR THE NOT "THE BEST" MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE WEST. AND ESSENTIALLY IT NOW BECOMES A MESOSCALE PROBLEM OF INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS TRAINING OVER KAUAI THAT GIVE LOCALLY HVY RAINS WITH EACH PASSAGE...SO FAR AT LEAST TWO AND MORE TO THE WEST AND SW. TRMM 10KM AREAL AVG RAIN RATES SHOWED MAX HRLY RATES OF 0.20"/HR JUST TO THE WEST OF KAUAI AT 2020Z.. THESE MAY SEEM LOW...BUT YOU HAVE TO REMEMBER THIS IS AN AREAL AVERAGE AND OUTSIDE OF THAT THESE RATE WOULD BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN A CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT. SEEMS LIKE THE GROUND BEFORE TODAY HAD NOT SEEN MUCH IN THE WAY OF HVY RAIN FOR AT LEAST A WEEK OR SO....SO IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE MORE TIME TO HEIGHTEN FF CONCERNS...BUT NOT TOO LONG WITH FETCH OF CELLS LINING UP TO THE WEST AHEAD OF AND WITH SLOW MOVING FRONT. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2230-0130Z...MEDIUM TO CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...CLUSTERS OF EMBEDDED COOLER TOPS WILL BE MOVING OVER KAUAI THIS PERIOD. THOUGH MICROWAVE RATES SEEM LOW...RAIN ESTIMATES COULD BE AS HIGH AS 0.5 TO MAYBE AS HIGH AS AN ISOLATED 1"/HR AND A BIT MORE CONCERNED FOR DURATION WITH CLUSTERS ALONG SWLY FLOW AND THE ADDITION OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE WESTERN ISLANDS FROM MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE DOWN THERE 7-10N/159 TO 165W. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2324 15993 2251 15762 2047 16034 2214 16059 . NNNN