ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/13/13 0638Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 0615Z  HANNA
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LOCATION...TENNESSEE...KENTUCKY...INDIANA...ILLINOIS...
LOCATION...MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...MISSOURI...ARKANSAS...
LOCATION...TEXAS...
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ATTN WFOS...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...
ATTN WFOS...SHV...HGX...
ATTN RFCS...OHRFC...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
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EVENT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
TROF AXIS ALONG ABOUT 105W.  A RATHER POTENT IMPULSE WAS BEGINNING TO
EJECT OUT OF THE MEAN TROF AXIS INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF CO THIS EVENING
WHILE ASSOCIATED JET MAX WAS LIFTING THROUGH PORTIONS OF TX AND OK.
THE COMBINATION OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS OVER THE E PAC
WITH NUMEROUS IMPULSES CONTINUING TO ALLOW FOR HEIGHT FALLS TO DROP INTO
BASE OF OVERALL TROF ALONG 105W AND AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE E US HAS ALLOWED FOR VERY SLOW MOVEMENT TO SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
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CURRENTLY THE BEST CLOUD TOP COOLING ON IR IMAGERY HAS BEEN FROM ROUGHLY
THE VIC OF LFK IN E TX NE TO NEAR THE VIC OF ARKANSAS COUNTY IN E PORTIONS
OF AR.  THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING
FROM LIFTING SHORTWAVE TROF AND SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE VIC
OF THE ARKLATEX REGION.  MANUAL SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 1.0-2.0"/HR IN
THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION AGREE WELL WITH RECENT REPORTS OUT OF KBAD.
FURTHER TO THE NE, A SECOND WAVE APPEARS TO BE LIFTING NE TOWARDS PORTIONS
OF NE AR AND SE MO AND THIS HAS SLOWED DOWN CONVECTIVE LINE TO ALLOW
FOR TRAINING FROM NE TOWARDS OWB IN W KY,  LATEST BLENDED PW ANALYSIS
WAS SHOWING PW'S RANGING FROM 1.50-1.70" ALONG SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND
THESE VALUES WERE IN EXCESS OF 200% ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0630-1230Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...BELIEVE THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE
SHORT TERM FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION EXTENDING NE THROUGH THE LOWER MS
VALLEY TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.  WOULD EXPECT LOCALIZED RAINFALL
RATES OF 1.0-2.0"/HR WITH 6 HOUR TOTALS OF 2.0-3.0" POSSIBLE IN AREAS
OF TRAINING.  WITH CLOUD TOPS CONTINUING TO COOL  OVER NW LA AND S AR
THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST ON THE SHORT TERM THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD LIKELY FALL ALONG AND DOWNSTREAM OF AN AXIS FROM ROUGHLY SHELBY
COUNTY IN E TX NE TO LEE COUNTY IN E AR.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3938 8673 3890 8592 3735 8629 3622 8756 3492 8902
3149 9299 3060 9511 3127 9515 3352 9303 3607 9035
3827 8816
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