ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/10/13 1424Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1402Z JBN
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LOCATION...MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS...
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ATTN WFOS...MOB...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC...LMRFC...
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EVENT...CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS SERN AR/ERN LA/WRN MS
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST GOES IR/VIS IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW A LINE OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION PRESSING ACROSS LA/SERN AR/WRN
MS THIS MORNING. STRONG SFC FORCING/UL DYNAMICS/DEEP MOISTURE ALL
HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES EWD. STRONG
COOLING/EXPANDING TREND STILL OBSERVED IN IR IMAGERY WITH BEST TRENDS
SEEN OVER S-CNTRL LA/NRN GULF OF MEXICO IN CORRIDOR OF DEEPER MOISTURE
VALUES. A FEW OVERSHOOTING TOPS HAVE ALSO BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE GULF
IN THE FIRST VIS IMAGERY OF THE DAY AND SOME OF THESE OVERSHOOTING TOPS
COULD MAKE IT INTO SRN LA THE NEXT FEW HRS. RAIN RATES STILL QUITE HEAVY
AND AVERAGING 1-2"/HR OVERALL WITH SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE CELLS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING RATES OF 2-3"/HR OVER SRN LA. HAVE GENERALLY SEEN 1-2" RAIN FALL
AMTS THE PAST 3-4 HRS AS CONVECTION MOVED THROUGH WITH SOME ISOLATED 2-3"
AMTS SHOWING UP WHERE SOME TRAINING/MORE INTENSE CELLS HAVE OCCURRED.
WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR AMTS THE NEXT FEW HRS ACROSS ERN LA/WRN MS/SERN AR
AS THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THESE AREAS.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1430Z-1830Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD SETUP THIS MORNING WITH
SINGLE LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING MOD/HVY
RAINFALL. INITIAL BURST OF RAIN SHOULD BE THE HEAVIEST WITH MAIN
CONVECTIVE LINE ITSELF WHERE RATES COULD TOP OUT IN THE 2-3"/HR RANGE
IN THE MOST INTENSE CELLS. BASED ON SFC OBS, THIS INITIAL BURST COULD
PRODUCE A QUICK 0.75-1.5" OF RAIN IN A 30-45 MIN TIME FRAME.  A PERIOD
OF STEADIER MOD/HVY RAIN SHOULD FOLLOW FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HRS WHICH COULD
PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 0.5-0.75" OF RAIN RESULTING IN TOTAL ADDITIONAL
RAIN FALL AMTS IN THE 1-2" RANGE IN MOST AREAS THE NEXT 3-4 HRS WITH
THE   HEAVIEST AMTS MAINLY OVER SRN MS/SERN LA.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3343 9217 3329 8847 2844 8874 2854 9210
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