ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES LAZ000-TXZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/08/13 2228Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 2215Z KUSSELSON NOAA AMSU:1911Z . LOCATION...LOUISIANA...C AND E TEXAS... . ATTN WFOS...LCH...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT... ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC... . EVENT...FOCUS ON SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WESTERN GULF AND TOWARD THE MID/UPPER TEXAS COAST AND S LOUISIANA...FURTHER WEST...INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MOISTURE FOR A SQUALL LINE...NOT AS SURE... . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...UPPER LOW HAS CERTAINLY BURIED ITSELF WELL SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MEXICO OR 370 MILES WSW OF KDRT. SEE NO SIGN YET OF IT LIFTING NORTHEAST. QUITE A BIT OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFT NORTH OUT AHEAD ACROSS N CENTRAL MEXICO INTO S CENTRAL TX. MAYBE THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE MORE ALONG PWAT GRADIENT (NOT SHARP, BUT A GRADIENT NONE THE LESS)) TO FORM THE SQUALL LINE SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING FOR LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. IN ANY CASE...DEEPER MOISTURE WELL TO THE EAST AND SE OF C TX IN WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE VALUES IN THE 1.6"-1.8" AND JUST ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO AND NOW WELL OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WITH SUCH A HIGH CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE THAT IS BEING HELPED BY MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED IN FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS...AT LEAST SOME TYPE OF SURFACE LOW REFLECTION TRYING TO BE IDENTIFIED IN WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO JUST EAST OR ENE OF KBRO. THINK HIGH MOISTURE AND ADVECTION ON LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO UPPER TX COAST AND S LA...ESPECIALLY SW TO S CENTRAL LA MAKES THIS AREA AN EQUALLY INCREASING AREA FOR LOCALIZED FF THROUGH THIS EVENING. BUT AS LONG AS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OF COLD TOPS CONTINUES W CENTRAL GULF...THIS MAY INHIBIT REALLY LONG AND SUSTAINED HVY PRECIPITATION REACHING TX AND LA COAST AND INLAND...AT LEAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. IN THE BIG PICTURE, NOT A WHOLE LOT UPSTREAM TO SPEED UP INCREASING RAINFALL THAT WILL BE MUCH HELPED ALONG BY MEXICAN UPPER LOW...SO PRETTY MUCH A STEADY AS YOU GO RAMPING UP OF AREAL AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL MOST AREAS CENTRAL TO SE/E CENTRAL/INTERIOR NE TX INTO W/C LOUISIANA, ESPECIALLY SW AND S CENTRAL. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2230-0300Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...HIGHEST MOISTURE AND ADVECTION INTO UPPER TX COAST AND SW TO S CENTRAL LA AND INLAND AND WOULD EXPECT THIS AREA TO HAVE HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS. KEEPING AN EYE ON CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS S CENTRAL INTO C TX ALONG PWAT GRADIENT AND MORE ACTIVITY COMING NORTH FROM MEXICO THAT MAY DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE OR TWO FOR THE HVY PRECIP CENTRAL TX...BUT THINKING LATER PART OF THIS PERIOD OR AFTER 03Z. CAN'T GET TOO EXCITED FOR SUSTAINED/FF PRODUCING HVY RAINS FOR CENTRAL TEXAS TILL THERE ARE MORE SIGNS OF THIS UPPER LOW COMING NORTH OUT OF ITS BURIED POSITION IN CENTRAL MEXICO. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 3208 9920 3000 9232 2549 9460 2646 9698 2884 9728 2948 10015 . NNNN
