ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 12/19/12 0859Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-15 0800Z RUMINSKI . LOCATION...TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...KANSAS...NEBRASKA... LOCATION...COLORADO...NEW MEXICO...ARIZONA...UTAH... . ATTN WFOS...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...GJT...TWC...FGZ... ATTN WFOS...SLC...PSR...VEF... ATTN RFCS...MBRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...CBRFC... . EVENT...DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...STLT TRENDS OVER PAST SEVERAL HRS NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN SYSTEM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY AS PER WV AND GOES RGB AIRMASS PRODUCT. VORT/TROF AXIS CURRENTLY THRU CENTRAL AZ. OVER PAST 6-12 HRS TROF AXIS IS EVOLVING FROM POSITIVE TO MORE NEUTRAL TILT WITH A QUASI COMMA HEAD APPEARANCE. ERN PORTION OF TROF STILL HAS GOOD SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION FROM ERN PACIFIC ACRS CENTRAL BAJA INTO SRN AZ AS PER LATEST BLENDED TPW PRODUCT . WHILE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO/AZ/NM WILL INCRGLY CUT OFF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS SOURCE...BLENDED TPW ANIMATION SHOWS RETURN FLOW IS RAPIDLY BRINGING MOISTURE FROM WRN GULF INTO CENTRAL TX WHICH SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO AS IT EMERGES INTO WRN PLAINS LATER TDY. . HEAVIEST PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER ERN HLF OF AZ AND ESP IN FAVORED UPSLOPE RGNS OF THE MOGOLLAN RIM. LARGE SCALE ASCENT APPEARS TO BE GRDLY INCRG IN THIS MOISTURE PLUME AS CLD TOP TEMPS HAVE BEEN COOLING OVER NE AZ AND ALG CO/UT BORDER PAST FEW HRS. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0900-1500Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...EXPECTING AN EXPANDING AREA OF MOD/HVY SNOW OVER FAR ERN UT AND CENTRAL/WRN CO AS CLD TOPS CONT TO COOL AND CONNECTION TO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS MAINTAINED. PRECIP BAND FURTHER TO THE S WILL CONT TO SWEEP ACRS CENTRAL AND SRN AZ INTO WRN NM WITH SOME .25" AMNTS PSBLE IN LOW TOPPED CNVTN. GULF MOISTURE WILL CONT TO STREAM N ACRS TX BUT NOT EXPECTED TO GET ENTTRAINED INTO SYSTEM AND ENHANCE PRECIP UNTIL AFTER THIS PD OVER KS/NE. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 4011 10175 3693 10088 3282 11153 3837 11358 . NNNN