ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES NMZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 12/14/12 0854Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-15 0841Z HANNA . LOCATION...NEW MEXICO...ARIZONA...NEVADA...CALIFORNIA... . ATTN WFOS...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF... ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...CBRFC...CNRFC... . EVENT...LOCALIZED HEAVY PRECIPITATION . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LARGE SCALE FORCING CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF JUST OFF THE S CA AND N BAJA COAST. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT VORTICITY CENTER THAT HAS DROPPED INTO THE BASE OF THE TROF JUST OFF N BAJA HAS HELPED TO BACK MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WHILE LEFT EXIT REGION OF SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK WAS HELPING TO ENHANCE LARGE SCALE FORCING. JUST UPSTREAM THOUGH, HEIGHT FALLS AREA ALREADY BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NW AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE AND HELP TO EJECT SYSTEM QUICKLY TO THE NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. . LATEST BLENDED PW ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT BEST SURGE OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FLUX HAS MOVED INTO PORTIONS OF SE AZ. WOULD EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS BEST HEIGHT FALLS LIFT NE AND FLOW FURTHER BACKS OVER SE AZ. OVER THE LAST 30 MINUTES IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOP COOLING ALONG AN AXIS FROM CNTRL PORTIONS OF PINAL COUNTY EXTENDING NW TO NW YAVAPAI COUNTY. MOST INTENSE CONVECTION WITHIN THIS AXIS APPEARS TO BE NEAR AND JUST SE OF PHX. WOULD EXPECT LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES WITHIN THIS AREA TO BE AS MUCH AS 0.50"/HR. WITH CLOSING OFF MID-LEVEL CENTER, ALSO HAVE NOTED INCREASING DEFORMATION CENTERED OVER S NV. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY FAVOR SOME BANDED PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF S NV. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0845-1445Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...BELIEVE THAT LOCALIZED HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL CONTINUE ON THE SHORT TERM. BELIEVE THAT BEST THREAT FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD SHIFT E ALONG THE RIM THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. WOULD ALSO EXPECT SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO FALL NEAR MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS OVER S NV. CURRENTLY WOULD EXPECT THE BEST PRECIPITATION WITH THAT TO FALL NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN S OF AND SE OF LAS. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 3680 11223 3508 11049 3436 10836 3288 10753 3253 10777 3186 10840 3089 10854 3042 10933 3081 11102 3125 11168 3280 11241 3380 11397 3446 11522 3592 11534 3665 11438 . NNNN