ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 12/13/12 1952Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-WEST:1930Z JS . LOCATION...ARIZONA/S NEVADA/SE CALIFORNIA... . ATTN WFOS...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SGX... ATTN RFCS...CBRFC...CNRFC... . EVENT...SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED PRIMARY BAND OF PRECIP TAKING ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT OVER SE CA/S NV. . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...SSMIS/AMSU MICROWAVE DATA FROM A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO ARE STILL INDICATING AROUND .7"-.9" PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH THE ORIGINAL MOISTURE PLUME ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL BAND MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SE ACROSS SE CA. HOWEVER, HAVE NOTED A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SURGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS ACROSS THE S TIP OF BAJA AND INTO THE S PORTION OF THE GULF OF CA DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW REACHING DOWN INTO THE TROPICS. THIS MOISTURE SURGE APPEARS TO BE TAKING AIM INITIALLY ON S AZ. CURRENT WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS AND ASSOCIATED MAIN PRECIP BAND TAKING ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT WITH BAND BECOMING MORE SOUTH-NORTH ORIENTED. A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED IMPULSES HAVE BEEN RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY PRODUCING ROUNDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS S CA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY COLDER CLOUD TOPS WITH ONE SMALL IMPULSE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE INTERIOR/DESERT PORTIONS OF S CA INTO NYE/LINCOLN/CLARK COUNTIES OF S NV WITH SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVING NE ACROSS SAN CLEMENTE/SANTA CATALINA ISLANDS PRODUCING ADDITIONAL LOCALLY MODERATE-HEAVY SHOWERS WHICH ARE MAINLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF RIVERSIDE/SAN DIEGO/IMPERIAL COUNTIES. IR/VIS IMAGERY IS ALSO SHOWING MORE UPSTREAM ACTIVITY OVER N BAJA AND SOUTHWARD OVER THE E PAC. OBSERVED RAIN RATES WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE BEEN RUNNING FROM AROUND .25"/HR TO LOCALLY NEAR .50"/HR OVER SE CA WITH 6 HOUR MAX TOTALS OF 1.0" TO JUST OVER 1.6". . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1930-0130Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...EXPECT THE MAIN PRECIP BAND TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE BAND WHICH EXTENDS INTO S NV SHOULD NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS WHILE THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAND SHIFTS A BIT MORE TO THE EAST. EXPECT THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION TOTALS/RATES TO OCCUR OVER SE CA GRADUALLY SPREADING CLOSER TO THE CA-AZ BORDER. EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITH IMPRESSIVE SUBTROPICAL JET MOVING ACROSS THE E PAC AND BAJA TOWARD SE AZ/S NM COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD S AZ SHOULD PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE EVENTUAL APPROACH OF BETTER FORCING WHICH SHOULD KICK IN NOT TOO FAR AFTER THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD. HAVE SEEN LOWER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALREADY EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF W AND S AZ IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 3688 11661 3669 11093 3082 11113 3169 11779 . NNNN