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AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 12/13/12 1952Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-WEST:1930Z JS
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LOCATION...ARIZONA/S NEVADA/SE CALIFORNIA...
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ATTN WFOS...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SGX...
ATTN RFCS...CBRFC...CNRFC...
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EVENT...SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED PRIMARY BAND OF PRECIP TAKING ON MORE OF
A NEGATIVE TILT OVER SE CA/S NV.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...SSMIS/AMSU MICROWAVE DATA FROM A COUPLE OF
HOURS AGO ARE STILL INDICATING AROUND .7"-.9" PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WITH THE ORIGINAL MOISTURE PLUME ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL BAND MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE SE ACROSS SE CA. HOWEVER, HAVE NOTED A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD
SURGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS ACROSS THE S TIP OF BAJA AND
INTO THE S PORTION OF THE GULF OF CA DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOWER
LEVEL FLOW REACHING DOWN INTO THE TROPICS. THIS MOISTURE SURGE APPEARS
TO BE TAKING AIM INITIALLY ON S AZ. CURRENT WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS AND ASSOCIATED MAIN PRECIP BAND TAKING ON
MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT WITH BAND BECOMING MORE SOUTH-NORTH ORIENTED. A
COUPLE OF EMBEDDED IMPULSES HAVE BEEN RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY
PRODUCING ROUNDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS S CA. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS RELATIVELY COLDER CLOUD TOPS WITH ONE SMALL IMPULSE MOVING NORTHWARD
FROM THE INTERIOR/DESERT PORTIONS OF S CA INTO NYE/LINCOLN/CLARK COUNTIES
OF S NV WITH SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVING NE ACROSS SAN CLEMENTE/SANTA
CATALINA ISLANDS PRODUCING ADDITIONAL LOCALLY MODERATE-HEAVY SHOWERS
WHICH ARE MAINLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF RIVERSIDE/SAN DIEGO/IMPERIAL
COUNTIES. IR/VIS IMAGERY IS ALSO SHOWING MORE UPSTREAM ACTIVITY OVER N
BAJA AND SOUTHWARD OVER THE E PAC. OBSERVED RAIN RATES WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN RUNNING FROM AROUND .25"/HR TO LOCALLY NEAR .50"/HR
OVER SE CA WITH 6 HOUR MAX TOTALS OF 1.0" TO JUST OVER 1.6".
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY
10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1930-0130Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...EXPECT THE MAIN PRECIP BAND TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TAKE ON
MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE BAND WHICH EXTENDS INTO
S NV SHOULD NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS WHILE THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE BAND SHIFTS A BIT MORE TO THE EAST. EXPECT THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION
TOTALS/RATES TO OCCUR OVER SE CA GRADUALLY SPREADING CLOSER TO THE CA-AZ
BORDER. EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITH IMPRESSIVE SUBTROPICAL
JET MOVING ACROSS THE E PAC AND BAJA TOWARD SE AZ/S NM COMBINED WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD S AZ SHOULD
PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE EVENTUAL APPROACH OF BETTER FORCING WHICH
SHOULD KICK IN NOT TOO FAR AFTER THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD. HAVE SEEN LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALREADY EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF
W AND S AZ IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3688 11661 3669 11093 3082 11113 3169 11779
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