ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 12/13/12 1518Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-15 1500Z JBN . LOCATION...ARIZONA...NEVADA...CALIFORNIA... . ATTN WFOS...PSR...VEF...SGX... ATTN RFCS...CBRFC...CNRFC... . EVENT...BAND OF MOD/HVY RAIN MOVING ACROSS SRN CA . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UL LOW SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF ACROSS CA THIS MORNING. DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE IS BEING FUNNELED NEWD FROM SUBTROPICS INTO SRN CA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A FEW WEAKER IMPULSES ARE RIDING TOWARD THE CA COAST IN THE MOISTURE PLUME. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS TONGUE OF HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES GRADUALLY WORKING NEWD INTO SRN NV WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF .5" PWATS NOW NOSING INTO SW NV WITH PWATS NEARING 1.0" NEARING COAST OF SRN CA. THESE VALUES ARE ABOUT 175-200% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS MOST AREAS AND SHOULD LEAD TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL AS THE PROGRESSES ACROSS MUCH OF SRN CA/SWRN AZ/SRN NV. GOES IR IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN AREA OF WARM TOP CONVECTIVE TYPE PRECIP ALONG SFC FRONT MOVING INTO SAN DIEGO/ORANGE/RIVERSIDE/SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES ATTM WITH SOME SLIGHT COOLING/EXPANDING NOW TAKING PLACE OVER THESE AREAS. HAVE SEEN RAIN RATES IN THE SAN DIEGO AREA RECENTLY ON THE ORDER OF 0.75-1.0"/HR. MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN HAVE BEEN PICKING UP ON AVERAGE 0.5-1.25" OF RAIN THE PAST THE HRS. SIMILAR RATES/AMTS CAN BE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SAN DIEGO/ORANGE/WRN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES NEXT 2-4 HRS. . FARTHER INLAND OVER THE REMAINDER OF SRN CA/SRN NV/SW AZ, SHOULD SEE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE HEADING THROUGH THE MORNING AS MOISTURE PLUME/SFC FRONT PUSH A BIT FARTHER INLAND. LOOKS LIKE ATMOSPHERE IS MOISTENING UP PRETTY QUICKLY AS HIGHER PWATS WORK INLAND. GIVEN RECENT COOLING/EXPANDING TRENDS TAKING PLACE ALONG THE FRONT FROM SRN CA INTO SRN NV, THINK RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE PRETTY QUICKLY THIS MORNING HEADING INTO SRN NV/SERN CA AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES EWD/PIECES OF UL ENERGY ROTATE AROUND MID/UL LOW INTO THE SW US. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1515Z-1915Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE BAND OF PRECIP EXPAND/MOVE EWD WITH SFC FRONT ACROSS SRN CA/SRN NV/SW AZ THROUGH THE MORNING HRS TODAY. ENTIRE REGION IN FAVORABLE SPOT TO SEE AT LEAST SOME RAIN TODAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE/SFC BOUNDARY/ENTRANCE REGION OF UL JET IN PLACE. EVEN THOUGH BEST MOISTURE VALUES IN PLACE CLOSEST TO THE COAST, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME HEAVIER RAIN BURSTS TAKE PLACE OVER ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA WITH DYNAMICS IN PLACE. DONT THINK THAT FLASH FLOODING IS A MAJOR CONCERN THE NEXT FEW HRS, BUT MAY NEED TO BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR SOME RUN OFF PROBLEMS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN/BURN AREAS. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 3685 11675 3653 11347 3075 11555 3062 11857 . NNNN