ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES FLZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 12/11/12 1744Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1732Z CW . LOCATION...FLORIDA... . ATTN WFOS...MLB...TBW... ATTN RFCS...SERFC... . EVENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND W-CENTRAL FL IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LLVL MOISTURE BOUNDARY (1.6-1.8" TPW VALUES) REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS LOWER HALF OF FL PENINSULA AHEAD OF SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED SOME CLEARING BETWEEN KPGD AND KTPA THEN EAST TO KORL. THIS PERIOD OF CLEARING HAS HELPED TO DETSTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...GOES SOUNDER INDICATES LI'S BETWEEN -4 AND -6 ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TRACKING NE ACROSS SE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HAS ALREADY INITIATED CONVECTION OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES CLOSER TO THE W COAST OF FL PENINSULA IT SHOULD ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION...FURTHER PROMOTING CONVECTION/SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1745-2245Z...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...LATEST STLT AND RADAR ALREADY SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO BREAK OUT BETWEEN KPGD AND KTPA. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION/SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE GULF WITHIN SRLY FLOW REGIME AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. RAINFALL RATES ARE LIKELY TO BE SIMILAR TO CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND PRODUCED 2-3"/HR RATES FOR PORTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY. OF MOST CONCERN WOULD BE FOR SOME CONVECTION CELLS TO BACKBUILD/MERGE ALLOWING HEAVY RAIN RATES TO SIT OVER A LOCALIZED AREA FOR A PERIOD OF 2+ HRS. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2905 8147 2761 8059 2638 8274 2786 8342 . NNNN