Landscapes of interwoven wetlands and uplands offer a rich set of ecosystem goods and services. Managing lands to maximize ecosystem services requires information that distinguishes change caused by local actions from broader-scale shifts in climate, land use, and other forms of global change. Satellite and airborne sensors collect valuable data for this purpose, especially when the data are analyzed along with data collected from ground-based sensors. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is using remote sensing technology in this way as part of the Terrestrial Wetland Global Change Research Network to assess effects of climate change interacting with land-use change and other potential stressors along environmental gradients of wetland-upland landscapes in the United States and Canada.

In the southeastern U.S., changes in temperature and precipitation over the last three decades have been the most dramatic in winter and spring seasons. Continuation of these trends could negatively impact pond-breeding amphibians, especially those that rely on winter and spring rains to fill seasonal wetlands, trigger breeding, and ensure reproductive success. From 2009 to 2012, we monitored aquatic stages (larval and paedomorphic, gilled adult) of a winter-breeding amphibian (the mole salamander, Ambystoma talpoideum) and used a single-species, multi-season model to estimate occupancy, detection probability, local colonization and extinction. Annual estimates of occupancy, corrected for imperfect detection, ranged from 9.9 to 23.1%, with the rate of change in occupancy probabilities between sampling seasons fluctuating over time. Our best supported model suggested that this change in occupancy was driven by an increase in estimates of extinction probabilities which, in turn, corresponded with an increase in drought over time. In contrast, colonization was low and less variable. A future climate change scenario of severe, prolonged drought could result in regional losses of seasonal wetlands and a concomitant change in the occupancy dynamics of aquatic amphibians.

A study by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) evaluated the hydrologic response to different projected carbon emission scenarios of the 21st century using a hydrologic simulation model. This study involved five major steps: (1) setup, calibrate and evaluated the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model in 14 basins across the United States by local USGS personnel; (2) acquire selected simulated carbon emission scenarios from the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; (3) statistical downscaling of these scenarios to create PRMS input files which reflect the future climatic conditions of these scenarios; (4) generate PRMS projections for the carbon emission scenarios for the 14 basins; and (5) analyze the modeled hydrologic response. This report presents an overview of this study, details of the methodology, results from the 14 basin simulations, and interpretation of these results.<br />
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A key finding is that the hydrological response of the different geographical regions of the United States to potential climate change may be different, depending on the dominant physical processes of that particular region. Also considered is the tremendous amount of uncertainty present in the carbon emission scenarios and how this uncertainty propagates through the hydrologic simulations.