714
AXUS74 KLUB 220453
DGTLUB
TXC017-045-069-075-079-101-107-125-153-169-189-191-219-263-269-
279-303-305-345-369-433-437-445-501-080500-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1053 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013
...PERIODIC WINTER PRECIPITATION BRINGS WELCOME SHORT-TERM MOISTURE...
BUT LONG TERM DROUGHT REMAINS UNCHANGED...
SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL RECENT PRECIPITATION EVENTS HAVE BROUGHT WELCOME MOISTURE
TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION OF WEST TEXAS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
UPPER SOIL MOISTENING AND IMPROVED HOPE FOR WINTER CROPS. BUT
LIMITED RECHARGING OF THE WATER SUPPLY AND INADEQUATE MOISTENING
OF THE DEEPER SOILS PORTEND ONGOING DROUGHT PROBLEMS. THE LATEST
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR PRODUCT INDICATED CONTINUING SEVERE TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
MORE MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WERE INDICATED ACROSS THE EASTERN
SOUTH PLAINS...THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND THE
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. THESE CONDITIONS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
SINCE THE END OF JANUARY.
FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS...
FIRE SEASON WAS UNDERWAY WITH GRASSES AND SHRUBBERY STILL LIMITED
FOLLOWING TWO DROUGHT YEARS...ALTHOUGH THESE POTENTIAL FUELS WERE
TRENDING DRIER AND MORE ABLE TO BURN AS IS TYPICAL DURING LATE
WINTER AND EARLY SPRING. THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX SHOWED
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PAST FOUR WEEKS. THE LOWEST VALUES OF 300 TO
400 CONTINUED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...INCREASING TO 500 TO 600
FOR MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. A SMALL AREA OF 600 TO 700 ENDURED
NEAR THE TEXAS-NEW MEXICO BORDER IN BAILEY AND PARMER COUNTIES.
THE LATEST ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT SHOWED A STEADY INCREASE...
INDICATING MORE ABILITY FOR HOT AND SUSTAINABLE FIRE. HOWEVER...
LOW FUEL LOADS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WOULD MAKE IT HARD-PRESSED
FOR FIRE WEATHER OUTBREAKS AT CURRENT ENERGY LEVELS. STRONG DRY
WINDS OCCURRED ON FEBRUARY 9TH AND 17TH...WITH WIND EVEN GUSTING
TO 55 TO 60 MPH ON THE 9TH...YET RESULTED IN NO KNOWN FIRE STARTS.
IN SPITE OF THE LACK OF WILDFIRES EARLY THIS YEAR...CAUTION MUST
BE MAINTAINED WITH THE APPROACH OF OUR PEAK WIND STORM SEASON IN
MARCH AND APRIL. AND BURN BANS REMAINED IN PLACE FOR HALF OF THE
WEST TEXAS COUNTIES.
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
RECENT MOISTURE HAS BEEN HELPFUL...HOWEVER MOST DRY-LAND WINTER
WHEAT REMAINED IN POOR CONDITION AND IN NEED OF FURTHER MOISTURE
TO RECOVER FROM THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. WINTER WHEAT WONT LAST
LONG WITHOUT ADDITIONAL RAIN IN THOSE AREAS ALREADY BEING GRAZED.
NATIVE RANGELAND AND PASTURES WERE IN POOR OR VERY POOR CONDITION.
SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING OF LIVESTOCK WAS CONTINUING. LIVESTOCK WERE
IN MOSTLY FAIR TO GOOD CONDITION ALTHOUGH INVENTORIES REMAINED
CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN IN RECENT YEARS. RANCHERS WERE NOT
PLANNING TO RESTOCK OWING TO LACK OF GRAZING AND CATTLE PRICES.
PREPARATION FOR SPRING PLANTING WAS UNDERWAY WITH APPLICATIONS OF
HERBICIDES TO REDUCE SPRING PIG-WEED. CONCERN REMAINED ABOUT THE
SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS NEEDED FOR UPCOMING SEEDING.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
WEATHER PATTERNS FROM LATE JANUARY THROUGH LATE FEBRUARY WERE
PROGRESSIVE PRODUCING SEVERAL WARM AND WINDY EPISODES AS WELL AS
PERIODIC COLD FRONTS AND RAIN. A MODEST SNOWFALL AROUND FEBRUARY
12TH AND 13TH BROUGHT SEVERAL INCHES TO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...WHILE ANOTHER LIGHTER SNOWFALL OCCUR ED IN THIS SAME
AREA FEBRUARY 21ST. MODEST SHOWERS FELL AS WELL NEAR THE END OF
JANUARY...AROUND FEBRUARY 12TH...AND AGAIN BETWEEN FEBRUARY 20TH
AND 21ST. SEVERE HAIL STORMS EVEN MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS FEBRUARY 9TH. TWO STRONG WIND EVENTS OCCURRED FEBRUARY
9TH AND FEBRUARY 17TH LEADING TO AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ON THE
CAPROCK AND ELEVATED FIRE DANGER...THOUGH NO KNOWN FIRE STARTS.
TOTAL PRECIPITATION FROM THESE EVENTS AMOUNTED TO 0.5 TO 1.5
INCHES FOR MOST OF THE AREA. PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
JUST EXCEEDED 2.0 INCHES...WHILE THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE RECEIVED LESS THAN A QUARTER OF
AN INCH. IN GENERAL...RAINFALL TO START THE YEAR WAS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE...NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...AND
SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL OCCUR FOR THE REGION IN BOTH
THE SHORT AND LONG TERM. IN THE NEAR TERM...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THIS WEEKEND...DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A
COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL APPEARS
QUITE PESSIMISTIC. COLD FRONTS WILL DROP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...A
GRADUAL WARM-UP WILL ENSUE THEREAFTER AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM PROMOTES DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. THE EXTENDED
OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT FOUR WEEKS SLIGHTLY FAVORS DRIER THAN NORMAL
AND WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
AREA RESERVOIRS HAVE SHOWN A GENERAL DECLINE SINCE THE END OF
JANUARY ALTHOUGH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT WAS NOTED DURING THE MIDDLE
OF FEBRUARY AFTER SEVERAL PRECIPITATION EVENTS. THE FOLLOWING
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED FEBRUARY 21ST:
RESERVOIR SUMMARY CONSERVATION POOL 4 WEEK MAXIMUM PERCENT OF
POOL TODAY CHANGE DEPTH CONSERVATION
(FEET) (FEET) CAPACITY
MACKENZIE LAKE 3100 3007.4 -0.2 57 8
WHITE RIVER LAKE 2370 2343.2 -0.3 16 4
LAKE ALAN HENRY 2220 2209.8 -0.3 67 73
LAKE MEREDITH 2936 2841.6 -0.2 28.4 -11
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON MARCH 21ST OR SOONER IF NECESSARY IN
RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.
&&
RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/
OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/
NWS PRECIPITATION:
HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/
USGS:
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
USACE:
HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
USDA:
HTTP://WWW.USDA.GOV/OCE/WEATHER/
TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION AGENCY CROP AND WEATHER REPORT:
HTTP://TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...
THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATIONS SITES...
THE TEXAS TECH/WEST TEXAS MESONET...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2579 SOUTH LOOP 289 SUITE 100
LUBBOCK TEXAS 79423
PHONE: 806-745-4260
SR-LUB.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
$$
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