 |
The NOAA HWT Spring Forecast Experiment is a yearly experiment that investigates the use of convection-allowing model forecasts as guidance for the prediction of hazardous convective weather. A variety of model output is examined and evaluated daily, and experimental forecasts are created and verified to test the applicability of cutting-edge tools in a simulated forecasting environment. The variety of model output allows us to explore different types of guidance, including products derived from both ensembles and deterministic forecasts, and to provide focused feedback to model developers. The 2012 Spring Forecast Experiment will be held from May 7th through June 8th in the HWT facility at the National Weather Center in Norman. The Experiment is scheduled to run Monday through Friday from 8am to 4pm. In addition to the traditional focus on severe convection, the 2012 Experiment will also explore use of convection-allowing models to address the challenges of convective initiation. More information about this year's Experiment can be found below in the 2012 Spring Forecast Experiment Operations Plan (see below). |
Spring Forecast Experiment Guidance
- Guidance Information
-
- Summary of 2012 Model Guidance
- File Status: NSSL | SPC
- In-house Guidance Graphics
- Operation Plans and Procedures
- External Model Pages
Evaluation Forms and Experimental Forecasts
- Evaluation Forms (internal)
-
- Objective Comparison of Deterministic Model Reflectivity Forecasts
- Objective Comparison of Ensemble Reflectivity Forecasts
- Evaluation of SSEF, SSEO, and AFWA UH Forecasts
- Evaluation of SREF, SREFp, and SSEO Calibrated Severe Guidance
- Evaluation of SREF and SREFp Severe Fields
- Severe: Evaluation of Yesterday's Forecasts
- CI: Evaluation of Yesterday's Forecasts
- Evaluation of SSEF Microphysics Perturbations
- Data Assimilation Evaluation
- Sounding Evaluation
- Experimental Forecasts
-
- 2012 Experimental Forecast Verification - Severe Convection
- Set Forecast Centerpoint
- 2012 Experimental Forecast Generation - Severe Convection (Restricted)
- 2012 Experimental Forecast Generation - Convective Initiation and Coverage
- 2012 Experimental Team Forecast Comparison (Restricted)
- Experimental Ensemble graphics - All Members
- Experimental Ensemble Proxy Severe - Forecast
- Experimental Ensemble Proxy Severe - Verification
Additional Resources
- Spring Forecast Experiment Blog
- Verification: NSSL National Mosaic and Multi-Sensor QPE (NMQ) System
- NMQ Overview Paper: BAMS 2011
- Forecast Verification Metrics
- GOES-R Proving Ground Blog
- GOES-R: Description of Simulated Satellite Imagery
- GOES-R: Description of Severe Hail Probability
- GOES-R: Description of Nearcast
- Description of the Probability-Matched Ensemble Mean
- More about the Hazardous Weather Testbed and the Spring Forecast Experiment
