NHC Tropical Cyclone Forecast Verification

Contents

1. Introduction
2. Forecast verification procedures
3. Annual NHC verification reports
4. Official five-year mean errors and distributions
5. Official error trends
6. Model error trends
7. NHC official forecast error database
8. Performance measures and goals
9. References

7. NHC official forecast error database

The links below contain tabulations of individual NHC official track and intensity forecast errors, and a description of the file format. These verifications include subtropical systems and are homogeneous with the current best track CLIPER5 and Decay-SHIFOR5 models.

• Official NHC Atlantic Track and Intensity Forecast Errors (1970-2011, excluding depressions)
  (text file 4 MB) (zip file 600 K)
  
  
• Official NHC Atlantic Track and Intensity Forecast Errors (1989-2011, including depressions)
  (text file 4 MB) (zip file 400K)
  
  
• Official NHC East Pacific Track and Intensity Forecast Errors (1989-2011, including depressions)
  (text file 4 MB) (zip file 500K)
  

• Official NHC Atlantic Along- and Cross-Track Forecast Errors (1970-2011, excluding depressions)
  (text file 4 MB) (zip file 500 K)
  
  
• Official NHC Atlantic Along- and Cross-Track Forecast Errors (1989-2011, including depressions)
  (text file 4 MB) (zip file 500K)
  
  
• Official NHC East Pacific Along- and Cross-Track Forecast Errors (1989-2011, including depressions)
  (text file 4 MB) (zip file 500K)
  
  
• Description of Error Tabulation File Format (.pdf)

Next: Performance measures and goals