New Hurricane Probability Product

Hurricane Rita intensification probability map Many factors contribute to the errors in hurricane forecasts including uncertainty in satellite position and intensity estimates, and track, intensity and wind structure forecast errors. A method to combine all sources of error based upon historical probability distributions was developed as part of a NESDIS project funded by the NOAA Joint Hurricane Testbed. This new probability model provides estimates of the likelihood of 34, 50 and 64 knot winds at any given location at 12 hour increments from the beginning of each forecast period out to five days. The figure below shows an example of the five day cumulative probability of hurricane force (64 kt) winds for a forecast for Hurricane Rita from September of 2005. The probability code was provided to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, where it was run on experimental basis in real time in 2005. This product will provide emergency managers and other responders a new quantitative tool which can be used for cost benefit analyses and to optimize hurricane mitigation activities.

Figure. The probability of hurricane force winds at any time in a five day period after 1 AM central daylight time on 22 September 2005. This experimental product was available in real time on the National Hurricane Center web for all storms during the 2005 hurricane season. Submitted by Mark DeMaria, CoRP / RAMMB.