Bibliography - Larry W Horowitz

1. Bowman, K W., Larry W Horowitz, and Vaishali Naik, et al., in press: Observational constraints on ozone radiative forcing from the Atmospheric Chemistry Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions. DOI:10.5194/acpd-12-23603-2012. 9/12.
   [ Abstract ]

   We use simultaneous observations of ozone and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) to evaluate ozone distributions and radiative forcing simulated by a suite of chemistry-climate models that participated in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The ensemble mean of ACCMIP models show a persistent but modest tropospheric ozone low bias (5–20 ppb) in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and modest high bias (5–10 ppb) in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) relative to TES for 2005–2010. These biases lead to substantial differences in ozone instantaneous radiative forcing between TES and the ACCMIP simulations. Using TES instantaneous radiative kernels (IRK), we show that the ACCMIP ensemble mean has a low bias in the SH tropics of up to 100 m W m⁻² locally and a global low bias of 35 ± 44 m W m⁻² relative to TES. Combining ACCMIP preindustrial ozone and the TES present-day ozone, we calculate an observationally constrained estimate of tropospheric ozone radiative forcing (RF) of 399 ± 70 m W m⁻², which is about 7% higher than using the ACCMIP models alone but with the same standard deviation (Stevenson et al., 2012). In addition, we explore an alternate approach to constraining radiative forcing estimates by choosing a subset of models that best match TES ozone, which leads to an ozone RF of 369 ± 42 m W m⁻². This estimate is closer to the ACCMIP ensemble mean RF but about a 40% reduction in standard deviation. These results point towards a profitable direction of combining observations and chemistry-climate model simulations to reduce uncertainty in ozone radiative forcing.

2. Fang, Y, Vaishali Naik, Larry W Horowitz, and D L Mauzerall, in press: Air pollution and associated human mortality: the role of air pollutant emissions, climate change and methane concentration increases during the industrial period. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions. DOI:10.5194/acpd-12-22713-2012. 9/12.
   [ Abstract ]

   Increases in surface ozone (O₃) and fine particulate matter (≤2.5 μm} aerodynamic diameter, PM_2.5) are associated with excess premature human mortalities. Here we estimate changes in surface O₃ and PM_2.5 since preindustrial (1860) times and the global present-day (2000) premature human mortalities associated with these changes. We go beyond previous work to analyze and differentiate the contribution of three factors: changes in emissions of short-lived air pollutants, climate change, and increased methane (CH₄) concentrations, to air pollution levels and the associated premature mortalities. We use a coupled chemistry-climate model in conjunction with global population distributions in 2000 to estimate exposure attributable to concentration changes since 1860 from each factor. Attributable mortalities are estimated using health impact functions of long-term relative risk estimates for O₃ and PM_2.5 from the epidemiology literature. We find global mean surface PM_2.5 and health-relevant O₃ (defined as the maximum 6-month mean of 1-h daily maximum O₃ in a year) have increased by 8 ± 0.16 μg m⁻³ and 30 ± 0.16 ppbv, respectively, over this industrial period as a result of combined changes in emissions of air pollutants (EMIS), climate (CLIM) and CH₄ concentrations (TCH4). EMIS, CLIM and TCH4 cause global average PM_2.5(O₃) to change by +7.5 ± 0.19 μg m⁻³ (+25 ± 0.30 ppbv), +0.4 ± 0.17 μg m⁻³ (+0.5 ± 0.28 ppbv), and −0.02 ± 0.01 μg m⁻³ (+4.3 ± 0.33 ppbv), respectively. Total changes in PM_2.5 are associated with 1.5 (95% confidence interval, CI, 1.0–2.5) million all-cause mortalities annually and in O₃ are associated with 375 (95% CI, 129–592) thousand respiratory mortalities annually. Most air pollution mortality is driven by changes in emissions of short-lived air pollutants and their precursors (95% and 85% of mortalities from PM_2.5 and O₃, respectively). However, changing climate and increasing CH₄ concentrations also increased premature mortality associated with air pollution globally up to 5% and 15%, respectively. In some regions, the contribution of climate change and increased CH₄ together are responsible for more than 20% of the respiratory mortality associated with O₃ exposure. We find the interaction between climate change and atmospheric chemistry has influenced atmospheric composition and human mortality associated with industrial air pollution. In addition to driving 13% of the total historical changes in surface O₃ and 15% of the associated mortalities, CH₄ is the dominant factor driving changes in atmospheric OH and H₂O₂ since preindustrial time. Our study highlights the benefits to air quality and human health of CH₄ mitigation as a component of future air pollution control policy.

3. Fiore, Arlene M., Vaishali Naik, Paul Ginoux, and Larry W Horowitz, et al., September 2012: Global air quality and climate. Chemical Society Reviews, 41(19), DOI:10.1039/C2CS35095E.
   [ Abstract ]

   Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH₄), ozone precursors (O₃), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O₃ precursor CH₄ would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH₄ and tropospheric O₃. Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions, which increase tropospheric O₃ (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH₄ (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH₄ volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O₃ and CH₄. Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O₃ and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios assume uniformly an aggressive reduction, of air pollutant emissions. New estimates from the current generation of chemistry–climate models with RCP emissions thus project improved air quality over the next century relative to those using the IPCC SRES scenarios. These two sets of projections likely bracket possible futures. We find that uncertainty in emission-driven changes in air quality is generally greater than uncertainty in climate-driven changes. Confidence in air quality projections is limited by the reliability of anthropogenic emission trajectories and the uncertainties in regional climate responses, feedbacks with the terrestrial biosphere, and oxidation pathways affecting O₃ and SOA.

4. Jiang, J H., Leo J Donner, Larry W Horowitz, and Charles J Seman, et al., July 2012: Evaluation of cloud and water vapor simulations in CMIP5 climate models using NASA “A-Train” satellite observations. Journal of Geophysical Research, 117, D14105, DOI:10.1029/2011JD017237.
   [ Abstract ]

   Using NASA's A-Train satellite measurements, we evaluate the accuracy of cloud water content (CWC) and water vapor mixing ratio (H2O) outputs from 19 climate models submitted to the Phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and assess improvements relative to their counterparts for the earlier CMIP3. We find more than half of the models show improvements from CMIP3 to CMIP5 in simulating column-integrated cloud amount, while changes in water vapor simulation are insignificant. For the 19 CMIP5 models, the model spreads and their differences from the observations are larger in the upper troposphere (UT) than in the lower or mid-troposphere (L/MT). The modeled mean CWCs over tropical oceans range from ~3% to ~15× observations in the UT and 40% to 2× observations in the L/MT. For modeled H2Os, the mean values over tropical oceans range from ~1% to 2× of the observations in the UT and within 10% of the observations in the L/MT. The spatial distributions of clouds at 215 hPa are relatively well-correlated with observations, noticeably better than those for the L/MT clouds. Although both water vapor and clouds are better simulated in the L/MT than in the UT, there is no apparent correlation between the model biases in clouds and water vapor. Numerical scores are used to compare different model performances in regards to spatial mean, variance and distribution of CWC and H2O over tropical oceans. Model performances at each pressure level are ranked according to the average of all the relevant scores for that level.

5. John, Jasmin, Arlene M Fiore, Vaishali Naik, Larry W Horowitz, and John P Dunne, in press: Climate versus emission drivers of methane lifetime from 1860–2100. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions. DOI:10.5194/acpd-12-18067-2012. 7/12.
   [ Abstract ]

   With a more-than-doubling in the atmospheric abundance of the potent greenhouse gas methane (CH₄) since preindustrial times, and indications of renewed growth following a leveling off in recent years, questions arise as to future trends and resulting climate and public health impacts from continued growth without mitigation. Changes in atmospheric methane lifetime are determined by factors which regulate the abundance of OH, the primary methane removal mechanism, including changes in CH₄ itself. We investigate the role of emissions of short-lived species and climate in determining the evolution of tropospheric methane lifetime in a suite of historical (1860–2005) and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) simulations (2006–2100), conducted with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) fully coupled chemistry-climate model (CM3). From preindustrial to present, CM3 simulates an overall 5% increase in CH₄ lifetime due to a doubling of the methane burden which offsets coincident increases in nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions. Over the last two decades, however, the methane lifetime declines steadily, coinciding with the most rapid climate warming and observed slow-down in CH₄ growth rates, reflecting a possible negative feedback through the CH₄ sink. The aerosol indirect effect plays a significant role in the CM3 climate and thus in the future evolution of the methane lifetime, due to the rapid projected decline of aerosols under all four RCPs. In all scenarios, the methane lifetime decreases (by 5–13%) except for the most extreme warming case (RCP8.5), where it increases by 4% due to the near-doubling of the CH₄ abundance, reflecting a positive feedback on the climate system. In the RCP4.5 scenario changes in short-lived climate forcing agents reinforce climate warming and enhance OH, leading to a more-than-doubling of the decrease in methane lifetime from 2006 to 2100 relative to a simulation in which only well-mixed greenhouse gases are allowed to change along the RCP4.5 scenario (13% vs. 5%) Future work should include process-based studies to better understand and elucidate the individual mechanisms controlling methane lifetime.

6. Koffi, B, Paul Ginoux, and Larry W Horowitz, et al., May 2012: Application of the CALIOP Layer Product to evaluate the vertical distribution of aerosols estimated by global models: Part 1. AeroCom phase I results. Journal of Geophysical Research, 117, D10201, DOI:10.1029/2011JD016858.
   [ Abstract ]

   The CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) Layer product is used for a multi-model evaluation of the vertical distribution of aerosols. Annual and seasonal aerosol extinction profiles are analysed over 13 sub-continental regions representative of industrial, dust, and biomass burning pollution, from CALIOP 2007-2009 observations and from AeroCom (Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models) 2000 simulations. An extinction mean height diagnostic (Zα) is defined to quantitatively assess the models' performance. It is calculated over the 0-6 km and 0-10 km altitude ranges by weighting the altitude of each 100 m altitude layer by its aerosol extinction coefficient. The mean extinction profiles derived from CALIOP layer products provide consistent regional and seasonal specificities and a low inter-annual variability. While the outputs from most models are significantly correlated with the observed Zα climatologies, some do better than others, and 2 of the 12 models perform particularly well in all seasons. Over industrial and maritime regions, most models show higher Zα than observed by CALIOP, whereas over the African and Chinese dust source regions, Zα is underestimated during Northern Hemisphere Spring and Summer. The positive model bias in Zα is mainly due to an overestimate of the extinction above 6 km. Potential CALIOP and model limitations, and methodological factors that might contribute to the differences are discussed.

7. Lamarque, J F., Larry W Horowitz, and Vaishali Naik, et al., in press: The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): overview and description of models, simulations and climate diagnostics. Geoscientific Model Development Discussion. DOI:10.5194/gmdd-5-2445-2012. 8/12.
   [ Abstract ]

   The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) consists of a series of timeslice experiments targeting the long-term changes in atmospheric composition between 1850 and 2100, with the goal of documenting radiative forcing and the associated composition changes. Here we introduce the various simulations performed under ACCMIP and the associated model output. The ACCMIP models have a wide range of horizontal and vertical resolutions, vertical extent, chemistry schemes and interaction with radiation and clouds. While anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions were specified for all time slices in the ACCMIP protocol, it is found that the natural emissions lead to a significant range in emissions, mostly for ozone precursors. The analysis of selected present-day climate diagnostics (precipitation, temperature, specific humidity and zonal wind) reveals biases consistent with state-of-the-art climate models. The model-to-model comparison of changes in temperature, specific humidity and zonal wind between 1850 and 2000 and between 2000 and 2100 indicates mostly consistent results, but with outliers different enough to possibly affect their representation of climate impact on chemistry.

8. Lee, Y-H, and Larry W Horowitz, et al., in press: Evaluation of preindustrial to present-day black carbon and its albedo forcing from ACCMIP (Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project). Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions. DOI:10.5194/acpd-12-21713-2012. 8/12.
   [ Abstract ]

   As part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), we evaluate the historical black carbon (BC) aerosols simulated by 8 ACCMIP models against observations including 12 ice core records, long-term surface mass concentrations and recent Arctic BC snowpack measurements. We also estimate BC albedo forcing by performing additional simulations using offline models with prescribed meteorology from 1996–2000. We evaluated the vertical profile of BC snow concentrations from these offline simulations using the recent BC snowpack measurements. Despite using the same BC emissions, the global BC burden differs by approximately a factor of 3 among models due to differences in aerosol removal parameterizations and simulated meteorology: 34 Gg to 103 Gg in 1850 and 82 Gg to 315 Gg in 2000. However, the global BC burden from preindustrial to present-day increases by 2.5–3 times with little variation among models, roughly matching the 2.5-fold increase in total BC emissions during the same period. We find a large divergence among models at both Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) high latitude regions for BC burden and at SH high latitude regions for deposition fluxes. The ACCMIP simulations match the observed BC surface mass concentrations well in Europe and North America except at Jungfraujoch and Ispra. However, the models fail to predict the Arctic BC seasonality due to severe underestimations during winter and spring. The simulated vertically resolved BC snow concentrations are, on average, within a factor of 2–3 of the BC snowpack measurements except for Greenland and the Arctic Ocean. For the ice core evaluation, models tend to capture both the observed temporal trends and the magnitudes well at Greenland sites. However, models fail to predict the decreasing trend of BC depositions/ice-core concentrations from the 1950s to the 1970s in most Tibetan Plateau ice cores. The distinct temporal trend at the Tibetan Plateau ice cores indicates a strong influence from Western Europe, but the modeled BC increases in that period are consistent with the emission changes in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, South and East Asia. At the Alps site, the simulated BCsuggests a strong influence from Europe, which agrees with the Alps ice core observations. Models successfully simulate higher BC concentrations observed at Zuoqiupu during the non-monsoon season than monsoon season, but models underpredict BC in both seasons. Despite a large divergence in BC deposition at two Antarctic ice core sites, models are able to capture the relative increase from preindustrial to present-day seen in the ice cores. In 2000 relative to 1850, globally annually averaged BC surface albedo forcing from the offline simulations ranges from 0.014 to 0.019 W m⁻² among the ACCMIP models. Comparing offline and online BC albedo forcings computed by some of the same models, we find that the global annual mean can vary by up to a factor of two because of different aerosol models or different BC-snow parameterizations and snow cover. The spatial distributions of the offline BC albedo forcing in 2000 show especially high BC forcing (i.e. over 0.1 W m⁻²) over Manchuria, Karakoram, and most of the Former USSR. Models predict the highest global annual mean BC forcing in 1980 rather than 2000, mostly driven by the high fossil fuel and biofuel emissions in the Former USSR in 1980.

9. Li, J-L, D E Waliser, W-T Chen, B Guan, T Kubar, G L Stephens, H-Y Ma, M Deng, Leo J Donner, Charles J Seman, and Larry W Horowitz, August 2012: An observationally based evaluation of cloud ice water in CMIP3 and CMIP5 GCMs and contemporary reanalyses using contemporary satellite data. Journal of Geophysical Research, 117, D16105, DOI:10.1029/2012JD017640.
   [ Abstract ]

   We perform an observationally based evaluation of the cloud ice water content (CIWC) and path (CIWP) of present-day GCMs, notably 20th century CMIP5 simulations, and compare these results to CMIP3 and two recent reanalyses. We use three different CloudSat + CALIPSO ice water products and two methods to remove the contribution from the convective core ice mass and/or precipitating cloud hydrometeors with variable sizes and falling speeds so that a robust observational estimate can be obtained for model evaluations. The results show that for annual mean CIWP, there are factors of 2–10 in the differences between observations and models for a majority of the GCMs and for a number of regions. However, there are a number of CMIP5 models, including CNRM-CM5, MRI, CCSM4 and CanESM2, as well as the UCLA CGCM, that perform well compared to our past evaluations. Systematic biases in CIWC vertical structure occur below the mid-troposphere where the models overestimate CIWC, with this bias arising mostly from the extratropics. The tropics are marked by model differences in the level of maximum CIWC (
   250–550 hPa). Based on a number of metrics, the ensemble behavior of CMIP5 has improved considerably relative to CMIP3, although neither the CMIP5 ensemble mean nor any individual model performs particularly well, and there are still a number of models that exhibit very large biases despite the availability of relevant observations. The implications of these results on model representations of the Earth radiation balance are discussed, along with caveats and uncertainties associated with the observational estimates, model and observation representations of the precipitating and cloudy ice components, relevant physical processes and parameterizations.

10. Lin, Meiyun, Arlene M Fiore, Larry W Horowitz, O Cooper, Vaishali Naik, J S Holloway, B J Johnson, A Middlebrook, S J Oltmans, I B Pollack, T B Ryerson, J X Warner, C Wiedinmyer, R John Wilson, and Bruce Wyman, February 2012: Transport of Asian ozone pollution into surface air over the western United States in spring. Journal of Geophysical Research, 117, D00V07, DOI:10.1029/2011JD016961.
    [ Abstract ]

    Many prior studies clearly document episodic Asian pollution in the western U.S. free troposphere. Here, we examine the mechanisms involved in the transport of Asian pollution plumes into western U.S. surface air through an integrated analysis of in situ and satellite measurements in May–June 2010 with a new global high-resolution (
    50  50 km2) chemistry-climate model (GFDL AM3). We find that AM3 with full stratosphere-troposphere chemistry nudged to reanalysis winds successfully reproduces observed sharp ozone gradients above California, including the interleaving and mixing of Asian pollution and stratospheric air associated with complex interactions of midlatitude cyclone air streams. Asian pollution descends isentropically behind cold fronts; at
    800 hPa a maximum enhancement to ozone occurs over the southwestern U.S., including the densely populated Los Angeles Basin. During strong episodes, Asian emissions can contribute 8–15 ppbv ozone in the model on days when observed daily maximum 8-h average ozone (MDA8 O3) exceeds 60 ppbv. We find that in the absence of Asian anthropogenic emissions, 20% of MDA8 O3 exceedances of 60 ppbv in the model would not have occurred in the southwestern USA. For a 75 ppbv threshold, that statistic increases to 53%. Our analysis indicates the potential for Asian emissions to contribute to high-O3 episodes over the high-elevation western USA, with implications for attaining more stringent ozone standards in this region. We further demonstrate a proof-of-concept approach using satellite CO column measurements as a qualitative early warning indicator to forecast Asian ozone pollution events in the western U.S. with lead times of 1–3 days.

11. Lin, Meiyun, Arlene M Fiore, O Cooper, Larry W Horowitz, A Langford, Hiram Levy II, B J Johnson, and Vaishali Naik, et al., in press: Springtime high surface ozone events over the western United States: Quantifying the role of stratospheric intrusions. Journal of Geophysical Research. DOI:10.1029/2012JD018151. 9/12.
    [ Abstract ]

    The published literature debates the extent to which naturally occurring stratospheric ozone intrusions reach the surface and contribute to exceedances of the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for ground-level ozone (75 ppbv implemented in 2008). Analysis of ozonesondes, lidar, and surface measurements over the western U.S. from April to June 2010 show that a global high-resolution (~50x50 km2) chemistry-climate model (GFDL AM3) captures the observed layered features and sharp ozone gradients of deep stratospheric intrusions, representing a major improvement over previous chemical transport models. Thirteen intrusions enhanced total daily maximum 8-hour average (MDA8) ozone to ~70-86 ppbv at surface sites. With a stratospheric ozone tracer defined relative to a dynamically-varying tropopause, we find that stratospheric intrusions can episodically increase surface MDA8 ozone by 20-40 ppbv (all model estimates are bias corrected), including on days when observed ozone exceeds the NAAQS threshold. These stratospheric intrusions elevated background ozone concentrations (estimated by turning off North American anthropogenic emissions in the model) to MDA8 values of 60-75 ppbv. At high-elevation western U.S. sites, the 25th-75th percentile of the stratospheric contribution is 15-25 ppbv when observed MDA8 ozone is 60-70 ppbv, and increases to ~17-40 ppbv for the 70-85 ppbv range. These estimates, up to 2-3 times greater than previously reported, indicate a major role for stratospheric intrusions in contributing to springtime high-O3 events over the high-altitude western U.S., posing a challenge for staying below the ozone NAAQS threshold, particularly if a value in the 60-70 ppbv range were to be adopted.

12. Liu, Junfeng, Larry W Horowitz, Song-Miao Fan, Hiram Levy II, and A G Carlton, August 2012: Global in-cloud production of secondary organic aerosols: Implementation of a detailed chemical mechanism in the GFDL atmospheric model AM3. Journal of Geophysical Research, 117, D15303, DOI:10.1029/2012JD017838.
    [ Abstract ]

    Secondary organic aerosols (SOA) constitute a significant fraction of ambient aerosols, but their global source is only beginning to be understood. Substantial evidence has shown that oxidation of water-soluble organic species in the liquid cloud leads to the formation of SOA. To evaluate this global source and explore its sensitivity to various assumptions concerning cloud properties, we simulate in-cloud SOA (IC-SOA) formation based on detailed multi-phase chemistry incorporated into the newly developed Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled chemistry-climate model AM3. We find global IC-SOA production is around 20-30 Tg∙yr-1 between 1999 and 2001. Depending on season and location, oxalic acid accounts for 40-90% of the total IC-SOA source (particularly between 800hPa - 400hPa), and glyoxylic acid and oligomers (formed by glyoxal and methylglyoxal in evaporating clouds) each contribute an additional 10-20%. Besides glyoxal and methylglyoxal (extensively studied by previous research), glycolaldehyde and acetic acid are among the most important precursors leading to the formation of IC-SOA, particularly oxalic acid. Different implementations of cloud fraction or cloud lifetime in global climate models could potentially modify estimates of IC-SOA mass production by 20-30%. Dense IC-SOA production occurs in the tropical and mid-latitude regions of the lower troposphere (surface to 500hPa). In DJF, IC-SOA production is concentrated over the western Amazon and southern Africa. In JJA, substantial IC-SOA production occurs over southern China and boreal forest regions. This study confirms a significant in-cloud source of SOA, which will directly and indirectly influence global radiation balance and regional climate.

13. Ocko, I B., V Ramaswamy, Paul Ginoux, Yi Ming, and Larry W Horowitz, in press: Sensitivity of scattering and absorbing aerosol direct radiative forcing to physical climate factors. Journal of Geophysical Research. DOI:10.1029/2012JD018019. 9/12.
    [ Abstract ]

    The direct radiative forcing of the climate system includes effects due to scattering and absorbing aerosols. This study explores how important physical climate characteristics contribute to the magnitudes of the direct radiative forcings (DRF) from anthropogenic sulfate, black carbon, and organic carbon. For this purpose, we employ the GFDL CM2.1 global climate model, which has reasonable aerosol concentrations and reconstruction of 20th Century climate change. Sulfate and carbonaceous aerosols constitute the most important anthropogenic aerosol perturbations to the climate system, and provide striking contrasts between primarily scattering (sulfate and organic carbon) and primarily absorbing (black carbon) species. The quantitative roles of cloud coverage, surface albedo, and relative humidity in governing the sign and magnitude of all-sky top-of-atmosphere forcings are examined. Clouds reduce the global-mean sulfate TOA DRF by almost 50%, reduce the global-mean organic carbon TOA DRF by more than 30%, and increase the global-mean black carbon TOA DRF by almost 80%. Sulfate forcing is increased by over 50% as a result of hygroscopic growth, while high-albedo surfaces are found to have only a minor (less than 10%) impact on all global-mean forcings. Although the radiative forcing magnitudes are subject to uncertainties in the state of mixing of the aerosol species, it is clear that fundamental physical climate characteristics play a large role in governing aerosol direct radiative forcing magnitudes.

14. Rasmussen, D J., Arlene M Fiore, Vaishali Naik, Larry W Horowitz, S J McGinnis, and M G Schultz, February 2012: Surface ozone-temperature relationships in the eastern US: A monthly climatology for evaluating chemistry-climate models. Atmospheric Environment, 47, DOI:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2011.11.021.
    [ Abstract ]

    We use long-term, coincident O₃ and temperature measurements at the regionally representative US Environmental Protection Agency Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNet) over the eastern US from 1988 through 2009 to characterize the surface O₃ response to year-to-year fluctuations in weather, for the purpose of evaluating global chemistry-climate models. We first produce a monthly climatology for each site over all available years, defined as the slope of the best-fit line (m_O3-T) between monthly average values of maximum daily 8-hour average (MDA8) O₃ and monthly average values of daily maximum surface temperature (T_max). Applying two distinct statistical approaches to aggregate the site-specific measurements to the regional scale, we find that summertime m_O3-T is 3–6 ppb K⁻¹ (r = 0.5–0.8) over the Northeast, 3–4 ppb K⁻¹ (r = 0.5–0.9) over the Great Lakes, and 3–6 ppb K⁻¹ (r = 0.2–0.8) over the Mid-Atlantic. The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Atmospheric Model version 3 (AM3) global chemistry-climate model generally captures the seasonal variations in correlation coefficients and m_O3-T despite biases in both monthly mean summertime MDA8 O₃ (up to +10 to +30 ppb) and daily T_max (up to +5 K) over the eastern US. During summer, GFDL AM3 reproduces m_O3-T over the Northeast (m_O3-T = 2–6 ppb K⁻¹; r = 0.6–0.9), but underestimates mO_3-Tby 4 ppb K⁻¹ over the Mid-Atlantic, in part due to excessively warm temperatures above which O₃ production saturates in the model. Combining T_max biases in GFDL AM3 with an observation-based m_O3-T estimate of 3 ppb K⁻¹ implies that temperature biases could explain up to 5–15 ppb of the MDA8 O₃ bias in August and September though correcting for excessively cool temperatures would worsen the O₃ bias in June. We underscore the need for long-term, coincident measurements of air pollution and meteorological variables to develop process-level constraints for evaluating chemistry-climate models used to project air quality responses to climate change.

15. Stevenson, D, Vaishali Naik, and Larry W Horowitz, et al., in press: Tropospheric ozone changes, radiative forcing and attribution to emissions in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (ACCMIP). Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions. DOI:10.5194/acpd-12-26047-2012. 10/12.
    [ Abstract ]

    Ozone (O₃) from 17 atmospheric chemistry models taking part in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) has been used to calculate tropospheric ozone radiative forcings (RFs). We calculate a~value for the pre-industrial (1750) to present-day (2010) tropospheric ozone RF of 0.40 W m⁻². The model range of pre-industrial to present-day changes in O₃ produces a spread (±1 standard deviation) in RFs of ±17%. Three different radiation schemes were used – we find differences in RFs between schemes (for the same ozone fields) of ±10%. Applying two different tropopause definitions gives differences in RFs of ±3%. Given additional (unquantified) uncertainties associated with emissions, climate-chemistry interactions and land-use change, we estimate an overall uncertainty of ±30% for the tropospheric ozone RF. Experiments carried out by a subset of six models attribute tropospheric ozone RF to increased emissions of methane (47%), nitrogen oxides (29%), carbon monoxide (15%) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (9%); earlier studies attributed more of the tropospheric ozone RF to methane and less to nitrogen oxides. Normalising RFs to changes in tropospheric column ozone, we find a global mean normalised RF of 0.042 W m⁻² DU⁻¹, a value similar to previous work. Using normalised RFs and future tropospheric column ozone projections we calculate future tropospheric ozone RFs (W m⁻²; relative to 1850 – add 0.04 W m⁻² to make relative to 1750) for the Representative Concentration Pathways in 2030 (2100) of: RCP2.6: 0.31 (0.16); RCP4.5: 0.38 (0.26); RCP6.0: 0.33 (0.24); and RCP8.5: 0.42 (0.56). Models show some coherent responses of ozone to climate change: decreases in the tropical lower troposphere, associated with increases in water vapour; and increases in the sub-tropical to mid-latitude upper troposphere, associated with increases in lightning and stratosphere-to-troposphere transport.

16. Turner, A J., Arlene M Fiore, Larry W Horowitz, Vaishali Naik, and M Bauer, in press: Summertime cyclones over the Great Lakes Storm Track from 1860–2100: variability, trends, and association with ozone pollution. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions. DOI:10.5194/acpd-12-21679-2012. 8/12.
    [ Abstract ]

    Prior work indicates that the frequency of summertime mid-latitude cyclones tracking across the Great Lakes Storm Track (GLST, bounded by: 70° W, 90° W, 40° N, and 50° N) are strongly anticorrelated with ozone (O₃) pollution episodes over the Northeastern United States (US). We apply the MAP Climatology of Mid-latitude Storminess (MCMS) algorithm to 6-hourly sea level pressure fields from over 2500 yr of simulations with the GFDL CM3 global coupled chemistry-climate model. These simulations include (1) 875 yr with constant 1860 emissions and forcings (Pre-industrial Control), (2) five ensemble members for 1860–2005 emissions and forcings (Historical), and (3) future (2006–2100) scenarios following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 (one member; extreme warming); RCP 4.5 (three members; moderate warming); RCP 4.5* (one member; a variation on RCP 4.5 in which only well-mixed greenhouse gases evolve along the RCP 4.5 trajectory)). The GFDL CM3 Historical simulations capture the mean and variability of summertime cyclones traversing the GLST within the range determined from four reanalysis datasets. Over the 21st century (2006–2100), the frequency of summertime mid-latitude cyclones in the GLST decreases under the RCP 8.5 scenario (m = −0.06 a⁻¹, p < 0.01) and in the RCP 4.5 ensemble mean (m = −0.03 a⁻¹, p < 0.01). These trends are significant when assessed relative to the variability in the Pre-industrial Control simulation (p > 0.06 for 100-yr sampling intervals; −0.01 a⁻¹ < m < 0.02 a⁻¹). In addition, the RCP 4.5* scenario enables us to determine the relationship between summertime GLST cyclones and high-O₃ events (>95th percentile) in the absence of emission changes. The summertime GLST cyclone frequency explains less than 10% of the variability in high-O₃ events over the Northeastern US in the model. Our findings imply that careful study is required prior to applying the strong relationship noted in earlier work to changes in storm counts.

17. Voulgarakis, A, Vaishali Naik, and Larry W Horowitz, et al., in press: Analysis of present day and future OH and methane lifetime in the ACCMIP simulations. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions. DOI:10.5194/acpd-12-22945-2012. 9/12.
    [ Abstract ]

    Results from simulations performed for the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Modeling Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) are analysed to examine how OH and methane lifetime may change from present-day to the future, under different climate and emissions scenarios. Present-day (2000) mean tropospheric chemical lifetime derived from the ACCMIP multi-model mean is 9.8 ± 1.6 yr, lower than a recent observationally-based estimate, but with a similar range to previous multi-model estimates. Future model projections are based on the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and the results also exhibit a~large range. Decreases in global methane lifetime of 4.5 ± 9.1% are simulated for the scenario with lowest radiative forcing by 2100 (RCP 2.6), while increases of 8.5 ± 10.4% are simulated for the scenario with highest radiative forcing (RCP 8.5). In this scenario, the key driver of the evolution of OH and methane lifetime is methane itself, since its concentration more than doubles by 2100, and it consumes much of the OH that exists in the troposphere. Stratospheric ozone recovery, which drives tropospheric OH decreases through photolysis modifications, also plays a~partial role. In the other scenarios, where methane changes are less drastic, the interplay between various competing drivers leads to smaller and more diverse OH and methane lifetime responses, which are difficult to attribute. For all scenarios, regional OH changes are even more variable, with the most robust feature being the large decreases over the remote oceans in RCP 8.5. Through a~regression analysis, we suggest that differences in emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds and in the simulation of photolysis rates may be the main factors causing the differences in simulated present-day OH and methane lifetime. Diversity in predicted changes between present-day and future was found to be associated more strongly with differences in modelled climate changes, specifically global temperature and humidity. Finally, through perturbation experiments we calculated an OH feedback factor (F) of 1.29 from present-day conditions (1.65 from 2100 RCP 8.5 conditions) and a~climate feedback on methane lifetime of 0.33 ± 0.13 yr K⁻¹, on average.

18. West, J J., Arlene M Fiore, and Larry W Horowitz, October 2012: Scenarios of methane emission reductions to 2030: abatement costs and co-benefits to ozone air quality and human mortality. Climatic Change, 114(3-4), DOI:10.1007/s10584-012-0426-4.
    [ Abstract ]

    Methane emissions contribute to global baseline surface ozone concentrations; therefore reducing methane to address climate change has significant co-benefits for air quality and human health. We analyze the costs of reducing methane from 2005 to 2030, as might be motivated to reduce climate forcing, and the resulting benefits from lower surface ozone to 2060. We construct three plausible scenarios of methane emission reductions, relative to a base scenario, ranging from 75 to 180 Mton CH4 yr−1 decreased in 2030. Using compilations of the global availability of methane emission reductions, the least aggressive scenario (A) does not incur any positive marginal costs to 2030, while the most aggressive (C) requires discovery of new methane abatement technologies. The present value of implementation costs for Scenario B are nearly equal to Scenario A, as it implements cost-saving options more quickly, even though it adopts positive cost measures. We estimate the avoided premature human mortalities due to surface ozone decreases by combining transient full-chemistry simulations of these scenarios in a global atmospheric chemical transport model, with concentration-mortality relationships from a short-term epidemiologic study and projected global population. An estimated 38,000 premature mortalities are avoided globally in 2030 under Scenario B. As benefits of methane reduction are positive but costs are negative for Scenario A, it is justified regardless of how avoided mortalities are valued. The incremental benefits of Scenario B also far outweigh the incremental costs. Scenario C has incremental costs that roughly equal benefits, only when technological learning is assumed. Benefits within industrialized nations alone also exceed costs in Scenarios A and B, assuming that the lowest-cost emission reductions, including those in developing nations, are implemented. Monetized co-benefits of methane mitigation for human health are estimated to be $13–17 per ton CO2eq, with a wider range possible under alternative assumptions. Methane mitigation can be a cost-effective means of long-term and international air quality management, with concurrent benefits for climate.

19. Winton, Michael, Alistair Adcroft, Stephen M Griffies, Robert W Hallberg, Larry W Horowitz, and Ronald J Stouffer, in press: Influence of ocean and atmosphere components on simulated climate sensitivities. Journal of Climate. DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00121.1. 6/12.
    [ Abstract ]

    We examine the influence of alternative ocean and atmosphere subcomponents on climate model simulation of transient sensitivities by comparing three GFDL climate models used for the CMIP5. The base model ESM2M is closely related to GFDL’s CMIP3 climate model CM2.1, and makes use of a depth coordinate ocean component. The second model, ESM2G, is identical to ESM2M but makes use of an isopycnal coordinate ocean model. We compare the impact of this “ocean swap” with an “atmosphere swap” that produces the CM3 climate model by replacing the AM2 atmosphere with AM3 while retaining a depth coordinate ocean model. The atmosphere swap is found to have much larger influence on sensitivities of global surface temperature and Northern Hemisphere sea ice cover. The atmosphere swap also introduces a multi-decadal response timescale through its indirect influence on heat uptake. Despite significant differences in their interior ocean mean states, the ESM2M and ESM2G simulations of these metrics of climate change are very similar, except for an enhanced high latitude salinity response accompanied by temporarily advancing sea ice in ESM2G. In the ESM2G historical simulation this behavior results in the establishment of a strong halocline in the subpolar North Atlantic during the early 20th century and an associated cooling which are counter to observations in that region. The Atlantic meridional overturning declines comparably in all three models.

20. Young, P J., Vaishali Naik, and Larry W Horowitz, et al., in press: Pre-industrial to end 21st century projections of tropospheric ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions. DOI:10.5194/acpd-12-21615-2012. 8/12.
    [ Abstract ]

    Present day tropospheric ozone and its changes between 1850 and 2100 are considered, analysing 15 global models that participated in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The multi-model mean compares well against present day observations. The seasonal cycle correlates well, except for some locations in the tropical upper troposphere. Most (75%) of the models are encompassed with a range of global mean tropospheric ozone column estimates from satellite data, although there is a suggestion of a high bias in the Northern Hemisphere and a low bias in the Southern Hemisphere. Compared to the present day multi-model mean tropospheric ozone burden of 337 Tg, the multi-model mean burden for 1850 time slice is ~ 30% lower. Future changes were modelled using emissions and climate projections from four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Compared to 2000, the relative changes for the tropospheric ozone burden in 2030 (2100) for the different RCPs are: −5% (−22%) for RCP2.6, 3% (−8%) for RCP4.5, 0% (−9%) for RCP6.0, and 5% (15%) for RCP8.5. Model agreement on the magnitude of the change is greatest for larger changes. Reductions in precursor emissions are common across the RCPs and drive ozone decreases in all but RCP8.5, where doubled methane and a larger stratospheric influx increase ozone. Models with high ozone abundances for the present day also have high ozone levels for the other time slices, but there are no models consistently predicting large or small changes. Spatial patterns of ozone changes are well correlated across most models, but are notably different for models without time evolving stratospheric ozone concentrations. A unified approach to ozone budget specifications is recommended to help future studies attribute ozone changes and inter-model differences more clearly.

21. Anenberg, S C., J J West, Larry W Horowitz, and D Q Tong, April 2011: The Global Burden of Air Pollution on Mortality: Anenberg et al. Respond. Environmental Health Perspectives, 119(4), DOI:10.1289/ehp.1003276R.
22. Avnery, S, D L Mauzerall, J Liu, and Larry W Horowitz, April 2011: Global crop yield reductions due to surface ozone exposure: 1. Year 2000 crop production losses and economic damage. Atmospheric Environment, 45(13), DOI:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.11.045.
    [ Abstract ]

    Exposure to elevated concentrations of surface ozone (O₃) causes substantial reductions in the agricultural yields of many crops. As emissions of O₃ precursors rise in many parts of the world over the next few decades, yield reductions from O₃ exposure appear likely to increase the challenges of feeding a global population projected to grow from 6 to 9 billion between 2000 and 2050. This study estimates year 2000 global yield reductions of three key staple crops (soybean, maize, and wheat) due to surface ozone exposure using hourly O₃ concentrations simulated by the Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers version 2.4 (MOZART-2). We calculate crop losses according to two metrics of ozone exposure – seasonal daytime (08:00–19:59) mean O₃ (M12) and accumulated O₃ above a threshold of 40 ppbv (AOT40) – and predict crop yield losses using crop-specific O₃ concentration:response functions established by field studies. Our results indicate that year 2000 O₃-induced global yield reductions ranged, depending on the metric used, from 8.5–14% for soybean, 3.9–15% for wheat, and 2.2–5.5% for maize. Global crop production losses totaled 79–121 million metric tons, worth $11–18 billion annually (USD2000). Our calculated yield reductions agree well with previous estimates, providing further evidence that yields of major crops across the globe are already being substantially reduced by exposure to surface ozone – a risk that will grow unless O₃-precursor emissions are curbed in the future or crop cultivars are developed and utilized that are resistant to O₃.

23. Avnery, S, D L Mauzerall, J Liu, and Larry W Horowitz, April 2011: Global crop yield reductions due to surface ozone exposure: 2. Year 2030 potential crop production losses and economic damage under two scenarios of O₃ pollution. Atmospheric Environment, 45(13), DOI:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2011.01.002.
    [ Abstract ]

    We examine the potential global risk of increasing surface ozone (O₃) exposure to three key staple crops (soybean, maize, and wheat) in the near future (year 2030) according to two trajectories of O₃ pollution: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) A2 and B1 storylines, which represent upper- and lower-boundary projections, respectively, of most O₃ precursor emissions in 2030. We use simulated hourly O₃ concentrations from the Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers version 2.4 (MOZART-2), satellite-derived datasets of agricultural production, and field-based concentration:response relationships to calculate crop yield reductions resulting from O₃ exposure. We then calculate the associated crop production losses and their economic value. We compare our results to the estimated impact of O₃ on global agriculture in the year 2000, which we assessed in our companion paper [Avnery et al., 2011]. In the A2 scenario we find global year 2030 yield loss of wheat due to O₃ exposure ranges from 5.4 to 26% (a further reduction in yield of +1.5–10% from year 2000 values), 15–19% for soybean (reduction of +0.9–11%), and 4.4–8.7% for maize (reduction of +2.1–3.2%) depending on the metric used, with total global agricultural losses worth $17–35 billion USD2000 annually (an increase of +$6–17 billion in losses from 2000). Under the B1 scenario, we project less severe but still substantial reductions in yields in 2030: 4.0–17% for wheat (a further decrease in yield of +0.1–1.8% from 2000), 9.5–15% for soybean (decrease of +0.7–1.0%), and 2.5–6.0% for maize (decrease of + 0.3–0.5%), with total losses worth $12–21 billion annually (an increase of +$1–3 billion in losses from 2000). Because our analysis uses crop data from the year 2000, which likely underestimates agricultural production in 2030 due to the need to feed a population increasing from approximately 6 to 8 billion people between 2000 and 2030, our calculations of crop production and economic losses are highly conservative. Our results suggest that O₃ pollution poses a growing threat to global food security even under an optimistic scenario of future ozone precursor emissions. Further efforts to reduce surface O₃ concentrations thus provide an excellent opportunity to increase global grain yields without the environmental degradation associated with additional fertilizer application or land cultivation.

24. Donner, Leo J., Bruce Wyman, Richard S Hemler, Larry W Horowitz, Yi Ming, Ming Zhao, J-C Golaz, Paul Ginoux, Shian-Jiann Lin, M Daniel Schwarzkopf, John Austin, G Alaka, W F Cooke, Thomas L Delworth, Stuart Freidenreich, C Tony Gordon, Stephen M Griffies, Isaac M Held, William J Hurlin, Stephen A Klein, Thomas R Knutson, Amy R Langenhorst, H C Lee, Yanluan Lin, B I Magi, Sergey Malyshev, P C D Milly, Vaishali Naik, Mary Jo Nath, R Pincus, Jeff J Ploshay, V Ramaswamy, Charles J Seman, Elena Shevliakova, Joseph J Sirutis, William F Stern, Ronald J Stouffer, R John Wilson, Michael Winton, Andrew T Wittenberg, and Fanrong Zeng, July 2011: The dynamical core, physical parameterizations, and basic simulation characteristics of the atmospheric component AM3 of the GFDL Global Coupled Model CM3. Journal of Climate, 24(13), DOI:10.1175/2011JCLI3955.1.
    [ Abstract ]

    The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) has developed a coupled general circulation model (CM3) for atmosphere, oceans, land, and sea ice. The goal of CM3 is to address emerging issues in climate change, including aerosol-cloud interactions, chemistry-climate interactions, and coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere. The model is also designed to serve as the physical-system component of earth-system models and models for decadal prediction in the near-term future, for example, through improved simulations in tropical land precipitation relative to earlier-generation GFDL models. This paper describes the dynamical core, physical parameterizations, and basic simulation characteristics of the atmospheric component (AM3) of this model. Relative to GFDL AM2, AM3 includes new treatments of deep and shallow cumulus convection, cloud-droplet activation by aerosols, sub-grid variability of stratiform vertical velocities for droplet activation, and atmospheric chemistry driven by emissions with advective, convective, and turbulent transport. AM3 employs a cubed-sphere implementation of a finite-volume dynamical core and is coupled to LM3, a new land model with eco-system dynamics and hydrology. Most basic circulation features in AM3 are simulated as realistically, or more so, than in AM2. In particular, dry biases have been reduced over South America. In coupled mode, the simulation of Arctic sea ice concentration has improved. AM3 aerosol optical depths, scattering properties, and surface clear-sky downward shortwave radiation are more realistic than in AM2. The simulation of marine stratocumulus decks and the intensity distributions of precipitation remain problematic, as in AM2. The last two decades of the 20th century warm in CM3 by .32°C relative to 1881-1920. The Climate Research Unit (CRU) and Goddard Institute for Space Studies analyses of observations show warming of .56°C and .52°C, respectively, over this period. CM3 includes anthropogenic cooling by aerosol cloud interactions, and its warming by late 20th century is somewhat less realistic than in CM2.1, which warmed .66°C but did not include aerosol cloud interactions. The improved simulation of the direct aerosol effect (apparent in surface clear-sky downward radiation) in CM3 evidently acts in concert with its simulation of cloud-aerosol interactions to limit greenhouse gas warming in a way that is consistent with observed global temperature changes.

25. Fang, Y, Arlene M Fiore, Larry W Horowitz, Anand Gnanadesikan, Isaac M Held, G Chen, Gabriel A Vecchi, and Hiram Levy II, September 2011: The impacts of changing transport and precipitation on pollutant distributions in a future climate. Journal of Geophysical Research, 116, D18303, DOI:10.1029/2011JD015642.
    [ Abstract ]

    Air pollution (ozone and particulate matter in surface air) is strongly linked to synoptic weather and thus is likely sensitive to climate change. In order to isolate the responses of air pollutant transport and wet removal to a warming climate, we examine a simple carbon monoxide (CO)–like tracer (COt) and a soluble version (SAt), both with the 2001 CO emissions, in simulations with the GFDL chemistry-climate model (AM3) for present (1981-2000) and future (2081-2100) climates. In 2081-2100, projected reductions in lower tropospheric ventilation and wet deposition exacerbate surface air pollution as evidenced by higher surface COt and SAt concentrations. However, the average horizontal general circulation patterns in 2081-2100 are similar to 1981-2000, so the spatial distribution of COt changes little. Precipitation is an important factor controlling soluble pollutant wet removal, but the total global precipitation change alone does not necessarily indicate the sign of the soluble pollutant response to climate change. Over certain latitudinal bands, however, the annual wet deposition change can be explained mainly by the simulated changes in large-scale (LS) precipitation. In regions such as North America, differences in the seasonality of LS precipitation and tracer burdens contribute to an apparent inconsistency of changes in annual wet deposition versus annual precipitation. As a step towards an ultimate goal of developing a simple index that can be applied to infer changes in soluble pollutants directly from changes in precipitation fields as projected by physical climate models, we explore here a “Diagnosed Precipitation Impact” (DPI) index. This index captures the sign and magnitude (within 50%) of the relative annual mean changes in the global wet deposition of the soluble pollutant. DPI can only be usefully applied in climate models in which LS precipitation dominates wet deposition and horizontal transport patterns change little as climate warms. Our findings support the need for tighter emission regulations, for both soluble and insoluble pollutants, to obtain a desired level of air quality as climate warms.

26. Golaz, J-C, M Salzmann, Leo J Donner, Larry W Horowitz, Yi Ming, and Ming Zhao, July 2011: Sensitivity of the aerosol indirect effect to subgrid variability in the cloud parameterization of the GFDL Atmosphere General Circulation Model AM3. Journal of Climate, 24(13), DOI:10.1175/2010JCLI3945.1.
    [ Abstract ]

    The recently developed GFDL Atmospheric Model version 3 (AM3), an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM), incorporates a prognostic treatment of cloud drop number to simulate the aerosol indirect effect. Since cloud drop activation depends on cloud-scale vertical velocities, which are not reproduced in present-day GCMs, additional assumptions on the subgrid variability are required to implement a local activation parameterization into a GCM. This paper describes the subgrid activation assumptions in AM3 and explores sensitivities by constructing alternate configurations. These alternate model configurations exhibit only small differences in their present-day climatology. However, the total anthropogenic radiative flux perturbation (RFP) between present-day and preindustrial conditions varies by ±50% from the reference, because of a large difference in the magnitude of the aerosol indirect effect. The spread in RFP does not originate directly from the subgrid assumptions but indirectly through the cloud retuning necessary to maintain a realistic radiation balance. In particular, the paper shows a linear correlation between the choice of autoconversion threshold radius and the RFP. Climate sensitivity changes only minimally between the reference and alternate configurations. If implemented in a fully coupled model, these alternate configurations would therefore likely produce substantially different warming from preindustrial to present day.

27. Griffies, Stephen M., Michael Winton, Leo J Donner, Larry W Horowitz, S M Downes, Riccardo Farneti, Anand Gnanadesikan, William J Hurlin, H C Lee, Z Liang, J B Palter, Bonita L Samuels, Andrew T Wittenberg, Bruce Wyman, J Yin, and N Zadeh, July 2011: The GFDL CM3 Coupled Climate Model: Characteristics of the ocean and sea ice simulations. Journal of Climate, 24(13), DOI:10.1175/2011JCLI3964.1.
    [ Abstract ]

    This paper documents time mean simulation characteristics from the ocean and sea ice components in a new coupled climate model developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The climate model, known as CM3, is formulated with effectively the same ocean and sea ice components as the earlier GFDL climate model, CM2.1, yet with extensive developments made to the atmosphere and land model components. Both CM2.1 and CM3 show stable mean climate indices, such as large scale circulation and sea surface temperatures (SSTs). There are notable improvements in the CM3 climate simulation relative to CM2.1, including a modified SST bias pattern and reduced biases in the Arctic sea ice cover. We anticipate SST differences between CM2.1 and CM3 in lower latitudes through analysis of the atmospheric fluxes at the ocean surface in corresponding Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations. In contrast, SST changes in the high latitudes are dominated by ocean and sea ice effects absent in AMIP simulations. The ocean interior simulation in CM3 is generally warmer than CM2.1, which adversely impacts the interior biases.

28. Huneeus, N, Paul Ginoux, and Larry W Horowitz, et al., August 2011: Global dust model intercomparison in AeroCom phase I. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 11(15), DOI:10.5194/acp-11-7781-2011.
    [ Abstract ]

    Desert dust plays an important role in the climate system through its impact on Earth's radiative budget and its role in the biogeochemical cycle as a source of iron in high-nutrient-low-chlorophyll regions. A large degree of diversity exists between the many global models that simulate the dust cycle to estimate its impact on climate. We present the results of a broad intercomparison of a total of 15 global aerosol models within the AeroCom project. Each model is compared to observations focusing on variables responsible for the uncertainties in estimating the direct radiative effect and the dust impact on the biogeochemical cycle, i.e., aerosol optical depth (AOD) and dust deposition. Additional comparisons to Angström Exponent (AE), coarse mode AOD and dust surface concentration are included to extend the assessment of model performance. These datasets form a benchmark data set which is proposed for model inspection and future dust model developments. In general, models perform better in simulating climatology of vertically averaged integrated parameters (AOD and AE) in dusty sites than they do with total deposition and surface concentration. Almost all models overestimate deposition fluxes over Europe, the Indian Ocean, the Atlantic Ocean and ice core data. Differences among the models arise when simulating deposition at remote sites with low fluxes over the Pacific and the Southern Atlantic Ocean. This study also highlights important differences in models ability to reproduce the deposition flux over Antarctica. The cause of this discrepancy could not be identified but different dust regimes at each site and issues with data quality should be considered. Models generally simulate better surface concentration at stations downwind of the main sources than at remote ones. Likewise, they simulate better surface concentration at stations affected by Saharan dust than at stations affected by Asian dust. Most models simulate the gradient in AOD and AE between the different dusty regions, however the seasonality and magnitude of both variables is better simulated at African stations than Middle East ones. The models also reproduce the dust transport across the Atlantic in terms of both AOD and AE; they simulate the offshore transport of West Africa throughout the year and limit the transport across the Atlantic to the summer months, yet overestimating the AOD and transporting too fine particles. However, most of the models do not reproduce the southward displacement of the dust cloud during the winter responsible of the transport of dust into South America. Based on the dependency of AOD on aerosol burden and size distribution we use model data bias with respect to AOD and AE and infer on the over/under estimation of the dust emissions. According to this we suggest the emissions in the Sahara be between 792 and 2271 Tg/yr and the one in the Middle East between 212 and 329 Tg/yr.

29. Liu, J, Song-Miao Fan, Larry W Horowitz, and Hiram Levy II, February 2011: Evaluation of factors controlling long-range transport of black carbon to the Arctic. Journal of Geophysical Research, 116, D04307, DOI:10.1029/2010JD015145.
    [ Abstract ]

    This study evaluates the sensitivity of long-range transport of black carbon (BC) from mid- and high-latitude source regions to the Arctic to aging, dry deposition and wet removal processes using the GFDL coupled chemistry and climate model (AM3). We derive a simple parameterization for BC aging (i.e., coating with soluble materials) which allows the rate of aging to vary diurnally and seasonally. Slow aging during winter permits BC to remain largely hydrophobic throughout transport from mid-latitude source regions to the Arctic. In addition, we apply surface-dependent dry deposition velocities and reduce the wet removal efficiency of BC in ice clouds. The inclusion of the above parameterizations significantly improves simulated magnitude, seasonal cycle and vertical profile of BC over the Arctic compared with those in the base model configuration. In particular, wintertime concentrations of BC in the Arctic are increased by a factor of 100 throughout the tropospheric column. Based on sensitivity tests involving each process, we find that the transport of BC to the Arctic is a synergistic process. A comprehensive understanding of microphysics and chemistry related to aging, dry and wet removal processes is thus essential to the simulation of BC concentrations over the Arctic.

30. Saikawa, E, J Kurokawa, M Takigawa, J Borken-Kleefeld, D L Mauzerall, Larry W Horowitz, and T Ohara, September 2011: The impact of China's vehicle emissions on regional air quality in 2000 and 2020: a scenario analysis. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 11(18), DOI:10.5194/acp-11-9465-2011.
    [ Abstract ]

    The number of vehicles in China has been increasing rapidly. We evaluate the impact of current and possible future vehicle emissions from China on Asian air quality. We modify the Regional Emission Inventory in Asia (REAS) for China's road transport sector in 2000 using updated Chinese data for vehicle numbers, annual mileage and emission factors. We develop two scenarios for 2020: a scenario where emission factors remain the same as they were before any regulation was implemented (business-as-usual, BAU), and a scenario where Euro 3 vehicle emission standards are applied to all vehicles (except motorcycles and rural vehicles). The Euro 3 scenario is an approximation of what may be the case in 2020 as, starting in 2008, all new gasoline and diesel vehicles in China (except motorcycles) were required to meet the Euro 3 emission standards. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF/Chem), we examine the regional air quality response to China's vehicle emissions in 2000 and in 2020 for the BAU and Euro 3 scenarios. We evaluate the 2000 model results with observations in Japan, China, Korea, and Russia. Under BAU in 2020, emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) from China's vehicles more than double compared to the 2000 baseline. If all vehicles meet the Euro 3 regulations in 2020, however, these emissions are reduced by more than 50% relative to BAU. The implementation of stringent vehicle emission standards leads to a large, simultaneous reduction of the surface ozone (O₃) mixing ratios and particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations. In the Euro 3 scenario, surface O₃ is reduced by more than 10 ppbv and surface PM2.5 is reduced by more than 10 μg m⁻³ relative to BAU in Northeast China in all seasons. In spring, surface O₃ mixing ratios and PM2.5 concentrations in neighboring countries are also reduced by more than 3 ppbv and 1 μg m⁻³, respectively. We find that effective regulation of China's road transport sector will be of significant benefit for air quality both within China and across East Asia as well.

31. Anenberg, S C., Larry W Horowitz, D Q Tong, and J J West, September 2010: An estimate of the global burden of anthropogenic ozone and fine particulate matter on premature human mortality using atmospheric modeling. Environmental Health Perspectives, 118(9), DOI:10.1289/ehp.0901220.
    [ Abstract ]

    Background: Ground-level concentrations of ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter [≤ 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5)] have increased since preindustrial times in urban and rural regions and are associated with cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. Objectives: We estimated the global burden of mortality due to O3 and PM2.5 from anthropogenic emissions using global atmospheric chemical transport model simulations of preindustrial and present-day (2000) concentrations to derive exposure estimates. Methods: Attributable mortalities were estimated using health impact functions based on long-term relative risk estimates for O3 and PM2.5 from the epidemiology literature. Using simulated concentrations rather than previous methods based on measurements allows the inclusion of rural areas where measurements are often unavailable and avoids making assumptions for background air pollution. Results: Anthropogenic O3 was associated with an estimated 0.7 ± 0.3 million respiratory mortalities (6.3 ± 3.0 million years of life lost) annually. Anthropogenic PM2.5 was associated with 3.5 ± 0.9 million cardiopulmonary and 220,000 ± 80,000 lung cancer mortalities (30 ± 7.6 million years of life lost) annually. Mortality estimates were reduced approximately 30% when we assumed low-concentration thresholds of 33.3 ppb for O3 and 5.8 µg/m3 for PM2.5. These estimates were sensitive to concentration thresholds and concentration–mortality relationships, often by > 50%. Conclusions: Anthropogenic O3 and PM2.5 contribute substantially to global premature mortality. PM2.5 mortality estimates are about 50% higher than previous measurement-based estimates based on common assumptions, mainly because of methodologic differences. Specifically, we included rural populations, suggesting higher estimates; however, the coarse resolution of the global atmospheric model may underestimate urban PM2.5 exposures.

32. Fang, Y, Arlene M Fiore, Larry W Horowitz, Hiram Levy II, Y Hu, and A G. Russell, September 2010: Sensitivity of the NO_y budget over the United States to anthropogenic and lightning NO_x in summer. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115, D18312, DOI:10.1029/2010JD014079.
    [ Abstract ]

    We examine the implications of new estimates of the anthropogenic and lightning nitrogen oxide (NOx) source for the budget of oxidized nitrogen (NOy) over the United States in summer using a 3-D global chemical transport model (MOZART-4). As a result of the EPA State Implementation (SIP) call, power plant NOx emissions over the eastern United States decreased significantly, as reflected by a 23% decrease in summer surface emissions from our 2004 inventory to the 1999 U.S. EPA National Emissions Inventory. We increase the model lightning NOx source over northern mid-latitude continents (by a factor of 10) and the fraction emitted into the free troposphere (FT, from 80% to 98%) to better match the recent observation-based estimates. While these NOx source updates improve the simulation of NOx and O3 compared to the INTEX-NA aircraft observations, a bias in the partitioning between HNO3 and PAN remains especially above 8km, suggesting gaps in the current understanding of upper tropospheric processes. We estimate a model NOy export efficiency of 4-14% to the North Atlantic in the FT, within the range of previous plume-based estimates (3%-20%) and lower than the 30% exported directly from the continental boundary layer. Lightning NOx contributes 24-43% of the FT NOy export from the U.S. to the North Atlantic and 28-34% to the NOy wet deposition over the United States, with the ranges reflecting different assumptions. Increasing lightning NOx decreases the fractional contribution of PAN to total NOy export, increases the O3 production in the northern extratropical FT by 33%, and decreases the regional mean ozone production efficiency per unit NOx (OPE) by 30%. If models underestimate the lightning NOx source, they would overestimate the background OPE in the FT and the fractional contribution of PAN to NOy export. Therefore, a model underestimate oflightning NOx would likely lead to an overestimate of the downwind O3 production due to anthropogenic NOx export. Better constraints on the lightning NOx source are required to more confidently assess the impacts of anthropogenic emissions and their changes on air quality over downwind regions.

33. Naik, Vaishali, Arlene M Fiore, and Larry W Horowitz, et al., June 2010: Observational constraints on the global atmospheric budget of ethanol. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10(12), DOI:10.5194/acp-10-5361-2010.
    [ Abstract ]

    Energy security and climate change concerns have led to the promotion of biomass-derived ethanol, an oxygenated volatile organic compound (OVOC), as a substitute for fossil fuels. Although ethanol is ubiquitous in the troposphere, our knowledge of its current atmospheric budget and distribution is limited. Here, for the first time we use a global chemical transport model in conjunction with atmospheric observations to place constraints on the ethanol budget, noting that additional measurements of ethanol (and its precursors) are still needed to enhance confidence in our estimated budget. Global sources of ethanol in the model include 5.0 Tg yr−1 from industrial sources and biofuels, 9.2 Tg yr−1 from terrestrial plants, ~0.5 Tg yr−1 from biomass burning, and 0.05 Tg yr−1 from atmospheric reactions of the ethyl peroxy radical (C2H5O2) with itself and with the methyl peroxy radical (CH3O2). The resulting atmospheric lifetime of ethanol in the model is 2.8 days. Gas-phase oxidation by the hydroxyl radical (OH) is the primary global sink of ethanol in the model (65%), followed by dry deposition (25%), and wet deposition (10%). Over continental areas, ethanol concentrations predominantly reflect direct anthropogenic and biogenic emission sources. Uncertainty in the biogenic ethanol emissions, estimated at a factor of three, may contribute to the 50% model underestimate of observations in the North American boundary layer. Current levels of ethanol measured in remote regions are an order of magnitude larger than those in the model, suggesting a major gap in understanding. Stronger constraints on the budget and distribution of ethanol and OVOCs are a critical step towards assessing the impacts of increasing the use of ethanol as a fuel.

34. Fang, Y, Arlene M Fiore, Larry W Horowitz, Anand Gnanadesikan, Hiram Levy II, Y Hu, and A G. Russell, December 2009: Estimating the contribution of strong daily export events to total pollutant export from the United States in summer. Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, D23302, DOI:10.1029/2008JD010946.
    [ Abstract ]

    While the export of pollutants from the United States exhibits notable variability from day to day and is often considered to be “episodic,” the contribution of strong daily export events to total export has not been quantified. We use carbon monoxide (CO) as a tracer of anthropogenic pollutants in the Model of OZone And Related Tracers (MOZART) to estimate this contribution. We first identify the major export pathway from the United States to be through the northeast boundary (24–48°N along 67.5°W and 80–67.5°W along 48°N), and then analyze 15 summers of daily CO export fluxes through this boundary. These daily CO export fluxes have a nearly Gaussian distribution with a mean of 1100 Gg CO day−1 and a standard deviation of 490 Gg CO day−1. To focus on the synoptic variability, we define a “synoptic background” export flux equal to the 15 day moving average export flux and classify strong export days according to their fluxes relative to this background. As expected from Gaussian statistics, 16% of summer days are “strong export days,” classified as those days when the CO export flux exceeds the synoptic background by one standard deviation or more. Strong export days contributes 25% to the total export, a value determined by the relative standard deviation of the CO flux distribution. Regressing the anomalies of the CO export flux through the northeast U.S. boundary relative to the synoptic background on the daily anomalies in the surface pressure field (also relative to a 15 day running mean) suggests that strong daily export fluxes are correlated with passages of midlatitude cyclones over the Gulf of Saint Lawrence. The associated cyclonic circulation and Warm Conveyor Belts (WCBs) that lift surface pollutants over the northeastern United States have been shown previously to be associated with long-range transport events. Comparison with observations from the 2004 INTEX-NA field campaign confirms that our model captures the observed enhancements in CO outflow and resolves the processes associated with cyclone passages on strong export days. “Moderate export days,” defined as days when the CO flux through the northeast boundary exceeds the 15 day running mean by less than one standard deviation, represent an additional 34% of summer days and 40% of total export. These days are also associated with migratory midlatitude cyclones. The remaining 35% of total export occurs on “weak export days” (50% of summer days) when high pressure anomalies occur over the Gulf of Saint Lawrence. Our findings for summer also apply to spring, when the U.S. pollutant export is typically strongest, with similar contributions to total export and associated meteorology on strong, moderate and weak export days. Although cyclone passages are the primary driver for strong daily export events, export during days without cyclone passages also makes a considerable contribution to the total export and thereby to the global pollutant budget.

35. Fiore, Arlene M., and Larry W Horowitz, et al., February 2009: Multimodel estimates of intercontinental source-receptor relationships for ozone pollution. Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, D04301, DOI:10.1029/2008JD010816.
    [ Abstract ]

    Understanding the surface O₃ response over a “receptor” region to emission changes over a foreign “source” region is key to evaluating the potential gains from an international approach to abate ozone (O₃) pollution. We apply an ensemble of 21 global and hemispheric chemical transport models to estimate the spatial average surface O₃ response over east Asia (EA), Europe (EU), North America (NA), and south Asia (SA) to 20% decreases in anthropogenic emissions of the O₃ precursors, NO_x, NMVOC, and CO (individually and combined), from each of these regions. We find that the ensemble mean surface O₃ concentrations in the base case (year 2001) simulation matches available observations throughout the year over EU but overestimates them by >10 ppb during summer and early fall over the eastern United States and Japan. The sum of the O₃ responses to NO_x, CO, and NMVOC decreases separately is approximately equal to that from a simultaneous reduction of all precursors. We define a continental-scale “import sensitivity” as the ratio of the O₃ response to the 20% reductions in foreign versus “domestic” (i.e., over the source region itself) emissions. For example, the combined reduction of emissions from the three foreign regions produces an ensemble spatial mean decrease of 0.6 ppb over EU (0.4 ppb from NA), less than the 0.8 ppb from the reduction of EU emissions, leading to an import sensitivity ratio of 0.7. The ensemble mean surface O₃ response to foreign emissions is largest in spring and late fall (0.7–0.9 ppb decrease in all regions from the combined precursor reductions in the three foreign regions), with import sensitivities ranging from 0.5 to 1.1 (responses to domestic emission reductions are 0.8–1.6 ppb). High O₃ values are much more sensitive to domestic emissions than to foreign emissions, as indicated by lower import sensitivities of 0.2 to 0.3 during July in EA, EU, and NA when O₃ levels are typically highest and by the weaker relative response of annual incidences of daily maximum 8-h average O₃ above 60 ppb to emission reductions in a foreign region (<10–20% of that to domestic) as compared to the annual mean response (up to 50% of that to domestic). Applying the ensemble annual mean results to changes in anthropogenic emissions from 1996 to 2002, we estimate a Northern Hemispheric increase in background surface O₃ of about 0.1 ppb a⁻¹, at the low end of the 0.1–0.5 ppb a⁻¹ derived from observations. From an additional simulation in which global atmospheric methane was reduced, we infer that 20% reductions in anthropogenic methane emissions from a foreign source region would yield an O₃ response in a receptor region that roughly equals that produced by combined 20% reductions of anthropogenic NO_x, NMVOC, and CO emissions from the foreign source region.

36. Koch, D, Paul Ginoux, and Larry W Horowitz, et al., November 2009: Evaluation of black carbon estimations in global aerosol models. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 9(22), DOI:10.5194/acp-9-9001-2009.
    [ Abstract ]

    We evaluate black carbon (BC) model predictions from the AeroCom model intercomparison project by considering the diversity among year 2000 model simulations and comparing model predictions with available measurements. These model-measurement intercomparisons include BC surface and aircraft concentrations, aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) retrievals from AERONET and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and BC column estimations based on AERONET. In regions other than Asia, most models are biased high compared to surface concentration measurements. However compared with (column) AAOD or BC burden retreivals, the models are generally biased low. The average ratio of model to retrieved AAOD is less than 0.7 in South American and 0.6 in African biomass burning regions; both of these regions lack surface concentration measurements. In Asia the average model to observed ratio is 0.7 for AAOD and 0.5 for BC surface concentrations. Compared with aircraft measurements over the Americas at latitudes between 0 and 50N, the average model is a factor of 8 larger than observed, and most models exceed the measured BC standard deviation in the mid to upper troposphere. At higher latitudes the average model to aircraft BC ratio is 0.4 and models underestimate the observed BC loading in the lower and middle troposphere associated with springtime Arctic haze. Low model bias for AAOD but overestimation of surface and upper atmospheric BC concentrations at lower latitudes suggests that most models are underestimating BC absorption and should improve estimates for refractive index, particle size, and optical effects of BC coating. Retrieval uncertainties and/or differences with model diagnostic treatment may also contribute to the model-measurement disparity. Largest AeroCom model diversity occurred in northern Eurasia and the remote Arctic, regions influenced by anthropogenic sources. Changing emissions, aging, removal, or optical properties within a single model generated a smaller change in model predictions than the range represented by the full set of AeroCom models. Upper tropospheric concentrations of BC mass from the aircraft measurements are suggested to provide a unique new benchmark to test scavenging and vertical dispersion of BC in global models.

37. Liu, J, D L Mauzerall, Larry W Horowitz, Paul Ginoux, and Arlene M Fiore, September 2009: Evaluating inter-continental transport of fine aerosols: (1) Methodology, global aerosol distribution and optical depth. Atmospheric Environment, 43(28), DOI:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.03.054.
    [ Abstract ]

    Our objectives are to evaluate inter-continental source-receptor relationships for fine aerosols and to identify the regions whose emissions have dominant influence on receptor continents. We simulate sulfate, black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and mineral dust aerosols using a global coupled chemistry-aerosol model (MOZART-2) driven with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis meteorology for 1997–2003 and emissions approximately representing year 2000. The concentrations of simulated aerosol species in general agree within a factor of 2 with observations, except that the model tends to overestimate sulfate over Europe in summer, underestimate BC and OC over the western and southeastern (SE) U.S. and Europe, and underestimate dust over the SE U.S. By tagging emissions from ten continental regions, we quantify the contribution of each region's emissions on surface aerosol concentrations (relevant for air quality) and aerosol optical depth (AOD, relevant for visibility and climate) globally. We find that domestic emissions contribute substantially to surface aerosol concentrations (57–95%) over all regions, but are responsible for a smaller fraction of AOD (26–76%). We define “background” aerosols as those aerosols over a region that result from inter-continental transport, DMS oxidation, and emissions from ships or volcanoes. Transport from other continental source regions accounts for a substantial portion of background aerosol concentrations: 36–97% for surface concentrations and 38–89% for AOD. We identify the Region of Primary Influence (RPI) as the source region with the largest contribution to the receptor's background aerosol concentrations (or AOD). We find that for dust Africa is the RPI for both aerosol concentrations and AOD over all other receptor regions. For non-dust aerosols (particularly for sulfate and BC), the RPIs for aerosol concentrations and AOD are identical for most receptor regions. These findings indicate that the reduction of the emission of non-dust aerosols and their precursors from an RPI will simultaneously improve both air quality and visibility over a receptor region.

38. Liu, J, D L Mauzerall, and Larry W Horowitz, September 2009: Evaluating inter-continental transport of fine aerosols:(2) Global health impact. Atmospheric Environment, 43(28), DOI:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.05.032.
    [ Abstract ]

    In this second of two companion papers, we quantify for the first time the global impact on premature mortality of the inter-continental transport of fine aerosols (including sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, and mineral dust) using the global modeling results of (Liu et al., 2009). Our objective is to estimate the number of premature mortalities in each of ten selected continental regions resulting from fine aerosols transported from foreign regions in approximately year 2000. Our simulated annual mean population-weighted (P-W) concentrations of total PM2.5 (aerosols with diameter less than 2.5 μm) are highest in East Asia (EA, 30 μg m⁻³) and lowest in Australia (3.6 μg m⁻³). Dust is the dominant component of PM2.5 transported between continents. We estimate global annual premature mortalities (for adults age 30 and up) due to inter-continental transport of PM2.5 to be nearly 380 thousand (K) in 2000. Approximately half of these deaths occur in the Indian subcontinent (IN), mostly due to aerosols transported from Africa and the Middle East (ME). Approximately 90K deaths globally are associated with exposure to foreign (i.e., originating outside a receptor region) non-dust PM2.5. More than half of the premature mortalities associated with foreign non-dust aerosols are due to aerosols originating from Europe (20K), ME (18K) and EA (15K); and nearly 60% of the 90K deaths occur in EA (21K), IN (19K) and Southeast Asia (16K). The lower and higher bounds of our estimated 95% confidence interval (considering uncertainties from the concentration–response relationship and simulated aerosol concentrations) are 18% and 240% of the estimated deaths, respectively, and could be larger if additional uncertainties were quantified. We find that in 2000 nearly 6.6K premature deaths in North America (NA) were associated with foreign PM2.5 exposure (5.5K from dust PM2.5). NA is least impacted by foreign PM2.5 compared to receptors on the Eurasian continent. However, the number of premature mortalities associated with foreign aerosols in NA (mostly occurring in the U.S.) is comparable to the reduction in premature mortalities expected to result from tightening the U.S. 8-h O₃ standard from 0.08 ppmv to 0.075 ppmv. International efforts to reduce inter-continental transport of fine aerosol pollution would substantially benefit public health on the Eurasian continent and would also benefit public health in the United States.

39. Livingstone, P L., and Larry W Horowitz, et al., December 2009: Simulating PM concentration during a winter episode in a subtropical valley: Sensitivity simulations and evaluation methods. Atmospheric Environment, 43(37), DOI:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.07.033.
    [ Abstract ]

    We investigated a two-week episode with high PM concentrations in California Central Valley during the Christmas–New Year of 2000–2001 using a modeling system that consists of a computationally efficient, 3-D photochemical–microphysical transport model, a mesoscale meteorological model, emission models, and an evaluation package. One hundred simulations were conducted with fine resolutions and observational constraints, to reproduce spatial and temporal features of observed PM concentrations and to understand the formation mechanism of the episode. Simulated PM concentrations consist of secondary inorganic components, mainly ammonium nitrate, and total carbon in areas with elevated concentrations in the accumulation mode, and consist of mainly dust and sea salt in the coarse mode. Simulated oxidants and nitrate were significantly elevated over the valley, and the latter showed much less amplitude than the former. Simulated PM concentrations were evaluated with observations systematically with spatially and temporally paired method, a more restrictive multivariate method (NMFROC), and a more flexible “gradient evaluation” method. The paired evaluation shows that high correlation coefficient (R = ~0.8) and low fractional error (FE = ~0.1) could be achieved at stations with elevated 24-h concentration of PM in the accumulation mode in some simulations. The NMFROC method was used to extract useful information from seemingly failed simulations. A “gradient evaluation” method is introduced here to extract additional information from simulations. We found that emission reductions of NO_x and AVOC showed similar effects on percentage basis in different areas, and both are more effective than reducing NH₃ for abating elevated concentrations of accumulation mode PM in California Central Valley during the winter episode.

40. Saikawa, E, Vaishali Naik, Larry W Horowitz, J Liu, and D L Mauzerall, June 2009: Present and potential future contributions of sulfate, black and organic carbon aerosols from China to global air quality, premature mortality and radiative forcing. Atmospheric Environment, 43(17), DOI:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.02.017.
    [ Abstract ]

    Aerosols are harmful to human health and have both direct and indirect effects on climate. China is a major contributor to global emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO₂), a sulfate (SO₄²⁻) precursor, organic carbon (OC), and black carbon (BC) aerosols. Although increasingly examined, the effect of present and potential future levels of these emissions on global premature mortality and climate change has not been well quantified. Through both direct radiative effects and indirect effects on clouds, SO₄²⁻ and OC exert negative radiative forcing (cooling) while BC exerts positive forcing (warming). We analyze the effect of China's emissions of SO₂, SO₄²⁻, OC and BC in 2000 and for three emission scenarios in 2030 on global surface aerosol concentrations, premature mortality, and radiative forcing (RF). Using global models of chemical transport (MOZART-2) and radiative transfer (GFDL RTM), and combining simulation results with gridded population data, mortality rates, and concentration–response relationships from the epidemiological literature, we estimate the contribution of Chinese aerosols to global annual premature mortality and to RF in 2000 and 2030. In 2000, we estimate these aerosols cause approximately 470 000 premature deaths in China and an additional 30 000 deaths globally. In 2030, aggressive emission controls lead to a 50% reduction in premature deaths from the 2000 level to 240 000 in China and 10 000 elsewhere, while under a high emissions scenario premature deaths increase 50% from the 2000 level to 720 000 in China and to 40 000 elsewhere. Because the negative RF from SO₄²⁻ and OC is larger than the positive forcing from BC, Chinese aerosols lead to global net direct RF of −74 mW m⁻² in 2000 and between −15 and −97 mW m⁻² in 2030 depending on the emissions scenario. Our analysis indicates that increased effort to reduce greenhouse gases is essential to address climate change as China's anticipated reduction of aerosols will result in the loss of net negative radiative forcing.

41. West, J J., Vaishali Naik, Larry W Horowitz, and Arlene M Fiore, August 2009: Effect of regional precursor emission controls on long-range ozone transport – Part 1: Short-term changes in ozone air quality. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 9(16), DOI:10.5194/acp-9-6077-2009.
    [ Abstract ]

    Observations and models demonstrate that ozone and its precursors can be transported between continents and across oceans. We model the influences of 10% reductions in anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions from each of nine world regions on surface ozone air quality in that region and all other regions. In doing so, we quantify the relative importance of long-range transport between all source-receptor pairs, for direct short-term ozone changes. We find that for population-weighted concentrations during the three-month "ozone-season", the strongest inter-regional influences are from Europe to the Former Soviet Union, East Asia to Southeast Asia, and Europe to Africa. The largest influences per unit of NO_x reduced, however, are seen for source regions in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, which we attribute mainly to greater sensitivity to changes in NO_x in the lower troposphere, and secondarily to increased vertical convection to the free troposphere in tropical regions, allowing pollutants to be transported further. Results show, for example, that NO_x reductions in North America are ~20% as effective per unit NO_x in reducing ozone in Europe during summer, as NO_x reductions from Europe itself. Reducing anthropogenic emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) and carbon monoxide (CO) by 10% in selected regions, can have as large an impact on long-range ozone transport as NO_x reductions, depending on the source region. We find that for many source-receptor pairs, the season of greatest long-range influence does not coincide with the season when ozone is highest in the receptor region. Reducing NO_x emissions in most source regions causes a larger decrease in export of ozone from the source region than in ozone production outside of the source region.

42. West, J J., Vaishali Naik, Larry W Horowitz, and Arlene M Fiore, August 2009: Effect of regional precursor emission controls on long-range ozone transport – Part 2: Steady-state changes in ozone air quality and impacts on human mortality. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 9(16), DOI:10.5194/acp-9-6095-2009.
    [ Abstract ]

    Large-scale changes in ozone precursor emissions affect ozone directly in the short term, and also affect methane, which in turn causes long-term changes in ozone that affect surface ozone air quality. Here we assess the effects of changes in ozone precursor emissions on the long-term change in surface ozone via methane, as a function of the emission region, by modeling 10% reductions in anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from each of nine world regions. Reductions in NOx emissions from all world regions increase methane and long-term surface ozone. While this long-term increase is small compared to the intra-regional short-term ozone decrease, it is comparable to or larger than the short-term inter-continental ozone decrease for some source-receptor pairs. The increase in methane and long-term surface ozone per ton of NOx reduced is greatest in tropical and Southern Hemisphere regions, exceeding that from temperate Northern Hemisphere regions by roughly a factor of ten. We also assess changes in premature ozone-related human mortality associated with regional precursor reductions and long-range transport, showing that for 10% regional NOx reductions, the strongest inter-regional influence is for emissions from Europe affecting mortalities in Africa. Reductions of NOx in North America, Europe, the Former Soviet Union, and Australia are shown to reduce more mortalities outside of the source regions than within. Among world regions, NOx reductions in India cause the greatest number of avoided mortalities per ton, mainly in India itself. Finally, by increasing global methane, NOx reductions in one hemisphere tend to cause long-term increases in ozone concentration and mortalities in the opposite hemisphere. Reducing emissions of methane, and to a lesser extent carbon monoxide and non-methane volatile organic compounds, alongside NOx reductions would avoid this disbenefit.

43. Fiore, Arlene M., J J West, Larry W Horowitz, Vaishali Naik, and M Daniel Schwarzkopf, April 2008: Characterizing the tropospheric ozone response to methane emission controls and the benefits to climate and air quality. Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, D08307, DOI:10.1029/2007JD009162.
    [ Abstract ]

    Reducing methane (CH₄) emissions is an attractive option for jointly addressing climate and ozone (O₃) air quality goals. With multidecadal full-chemistry transient simulations in the MOZART-2 tropospheric chemistry model, we show that tropospheric O₃ responds approximately linearly to changes in CH₄ emissions over a range of anthropogenic emissions from 0–430 Tg CH₄a⁻¹ (0.11–0.16 Tg tropospheric O₃ or ∼11–15 ppt global mean surface O₃ decrease per Tg a⁻¹ CH₄ reduced). We find that neither the air quality nor climate benefits depend strongly on the location of the CH₄ emission reductions, implying that the lowest cost emission controls can be targeted. With a series of future (2005–2030) transient simulations, we demonstrate that cost-effective CH₄ controls would offset the positive climate forcing from CH₄ and O₃ that would otherwise occur (from increases in NO_x and CH₄ emissions in the baseline scenario) and improve O₃ air quality. We estimate that anthropogenic CH₄ contributes 0.7 Wm⁻² to climate forcing and ∼4 ppb to surface O₃ in 2030 under the baseline scenario. Although the response of surface O₃ to CH₄ is relatively uniform spatially compared to that from other O₃ precursors, it is strongest in regions where surface air mixes frequently with the free troposphere and where the local O₃ formation regime is NO_x-saturated. In the model, CH₄ oxidation within the boundary layer (below ∼2.5 km) contributes more to surface O₃ than CH₄ oxidation in the free troposphere. In NO_x-saturated regions, the surface O₃ sensitivity to CH₄ can be twice that of the global mean, with >70% of this sensitivity resulting from boundary layer oxidation of CH₄. Accurately representing the NO_x distribution is thus crucial for quantifying the O₃ sensitivity to CH₄.

44. Heald, C L., C Henze, Larry W Horowitz, J Feddema, J F Lamarque, A Guenther, P G Hess, F Vitt, J H Seinfeld, A H Goldstein, and I Y Fung, March 2008: Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land use change. Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, D05211, DOI:10.1029/2007JD009092.
    [ Abstract ]

    The sensitivity of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) concentration to changes in climate and emissions is investigated using a coupled global atmosphere-land model driven by the year 2100 IPCC A1B scenario predictions. The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3) is updated with recent laboratory determined yields for SOA formation from monoterpene oxidation, isoprene photooxidation and aromatic photooxidation. Biogenic emissions of isoprene and monoterpenes are simulated interactively using the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols (MEGAN2) within the Community Land Model (CLM3). The global mean SOA burden is predicted to increase by 36% in 2100, primarily the result of rising biogenic and anthropogenic emissions which independently increase the burden by 26% and 7%. The later includes enhanced biogenic SOA formation due to increased emissions of primary organic aerosol (5–25% increases in surface SOA concentrations in 2100). Climate change alone (via temperature, removal rates, and oxidative capacity) does not change the global mean SOA production, but the global burden increases by 6%. The global burden of anthropogenic SOA experiences proportionally more growth than biogenic SOA in 2100 from the net effect of climate and emissions (67% increase predicted). Projected anthropogenic land use change for 2100 (A2) is predicted to reduce the global SOA burden by 14%, largely the result of cropland expansion. South America is the largest global source region for SOA in the present day and 2100, but Asia experiences the largest relative growth in SOA production by 2100 because of the large predicted increases in Asian anthropogenic aromatic emissions. The projected decrease in global sulfur emissions implies that SOA will contribute a progressively larger fraction of the global aerosol burden.

45. Holloway, T, and Larry W Horowitz, et al., May 2008: MICS-Asia II: Impact of global emissions on regional air quality in Asia. Atmospheric Environment, 42(15), DOI:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2007.10.022.
    [ Abstract ]

    This study quantifies the seasonality and geographic variability of global pollutant inflow to Asia. Asia is often looked to as a major source of intercontinental air pollution transport with rising emissions and efficient pollutant export processes. However, the degree to which foreign emissions have been imported to Asia has not been thoroughly examined. The Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia) is an international collaboration to study air pollution transport and chemistry in Asia. Using the global atmospheric chemistry Model of Ozone and Related Tracers (MOZART v. 2.4), and comparing results with a suite of regional models participating in MICS-Asia, we find that imported O₃ contributes significantly throughout Asia. The choice of upper boundary condition is found to be particularly important for O3, even for surface concentrations. Both North America and Europe contribute to ground-level O₃ concentrations throughout the region, though the seasonality of these two sources varies. North American contributions peak at over 10% of monthly mean O₃ during winter months in East Asia, compared to Europe's spring- and autumn-maxima (5–8%). In comparison to observed data from the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET), MOZART concentrations for O₃ generally fall within the range of the MICS models, but MOZART is unable to capture the fine spatial variability of shorter-lived species as well as the regional models.

46. Levy II, Hiram, M Daniel Schwarzkopf, Larry W Horowitz, V Ramaswamy, and Kirsten L Findell, March 2008: Strong sensitivity of late 21st Century climate to projected changes in short-lived air pollutants. Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, D06102, DOI:10.1029/2007JD009176.
    [ Abstract ]

    This study examines the impact of projected changes (A1B “marker” scenario) in emissions of four short-lived air pollutants (ozone, black carbon, organic carbon, and sulfate) on future climate. Through year 2030, simulated climate is only weakly dependent on the projected levels of short-lived air pollutants, primarily the result of a near cancellation of their global net radiative forcing. However, by year 2100, the projected decrease in sulfate aerosol (driven by a 65% reduction in global sulfur dioxide emissions) and the projected increase in black carbon aerosol (driven by a 100% increase in its global emissions) contribute a significant portion of the simulated A1B surface air warming relative to the year 2000: 0.2°C (Southern Hemisphere), 0.4°C globally, 0.6°C (Northern Hemisphere), 1.5–3°C (wintertime Arctic), and 1.5–2°C (∼40% of the total) in the summertime United States. These projected changes are also responsible for a significant decrease in central United States late summer root zone soil water and precipitation. By year 2100, changes in short-lived air pollutants produce a global average increase in radiative forcing of ∼1 W/m²; over east Asia it exceeds 5 W/m². However, the resulting regional patterns of surface temperature warming do not follow the regional patterns of changes in short-lived species emissions, tropospheric loadings, or radiative forcing (global pattern correlation coefficient of −0.172). Rather, the regional patterns of warming from short-lived species are similar to the patterns for well-mixed greenhouse gases (global pattern correlation coefficient of 0.8) with the strongest warming occurring over the summer continental United States, Mediterranean Sea, and southern Europe and over the winter Arctic.

47. Parrington, M, D B A Jones, K W Bowman, Larry W Horowitz, A M Thompson, D W Tarasick, and J. C. Witte, 2008: Estimating the summertime tropospheric ozone distribution over North America through assimilation of observations from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer. Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, D18307, DOI:10.1029/2007JD009341.
    [ Abstract ]

    We assimilate ozone and CO retrievals from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) for July and August 2006 into the GEOS-Chem and AM2-Chem models. We show that the spatiotemporal sampling of the TES measurements is sufficient to constrain the tropospheric ozone distribution in the models despite their different chemical and transport mechanisms. Assimilation of TES data reduces the mean differences in ozone between the models from almost 8 ppbv to 1.5 ppbv. Differences between the mean model profiles and ozonesonde data over North America are reduced from almost 30% to within 5% for GEOS-Chem, and from 40% to within 10% for AM2-Chem, below 200 hPa. The absolute biases are larger in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS), increasing to 10% and 30% in GEOS-Chem and AM2-Chem, respectively, at 200 hPa. The larger bias in the UT/LS reflects the influence of the spatial sampling of TES, the vertical smoothing of the TES retrievals, and the coarse vertical resolution of the models. The largest discrepancy in ozone between the models is associated with the ozone maximum over the southeastern USA. The assimilation reduces the mean bias between the models from 26 to 16 ppbv in this region. In GEOS-Chem, there is an increase of about 11 ppbv in the upper troposphere, consistent with the increase in ozone obtained by a previous study using GEOS-Chem with an improved estimate of lightning NOx emissions over the USA. Our results show that assimilation of TES observations into models of tropospheric chemistry and transport provides an improved description of free tropospheric ozone.

48. Sanderson, M, F Dentener, Arlene M Fiore, C Cuvelier, T J Keating, A Zuber, C Atherton, D J Bergmann, T Diehl, R Doherty, B N Duncan, P G Hess, and Larry W Horowitz, et al., 2008: A multi-model study of the hemispheric transport and deposition of oxidised nitrogen. Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L17815, DOI:10.1029/2008GL035389.
    [ Abstract ]

    Fifteen chemistry-transport models are used to quantify, for the first time, the export of oxidised nitrogen (NO_y) to and from four regions (Europe, North America, South Asia, and East Asia), and to estimate the uncertainty in the results. Between 12 and 24% of the NO_x emitted is exported from each region annually. The strongest impact of each source region on a foreign region is: Europe on East Asia, North America on Europe, South Asia on East Asia, and East Asia on North America. Europe exports the most NO_y, and East Asia the least. East Asia receives the most NO_y from the other regions. Between 8 and 15% of NO_x emitted in each region is transported over distances larger than 1000 km, with 3–10% ultimately deposited over the foreign regions.

49. Shindell, D, Hiram Levy II, M Daniel Schwarzkopf, Larry W Horowitz, J F Lamarque, and G Faluvegi, June 2008: Multimodel projections of climate change from short-lived emissions due to human activities. Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, D11109, DOI:10.1029/2007JD009152.
    [ Abstract ]

    We use the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies), GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) and NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) climate models to study the climate impact of the future evolution of short-lived radiatively active species (ozone and aerosols). The models used mid-range A1B emission scenarios, independently calculated the resulting composition change, and then performed transient simulations to 2050 examining the response to projected changes in short-lived species and to changes in both long-lived and short-lived species together. By 2050, two models show that the global mean annual average warming due to long-lived GHGs (greenhouse gases) is enhanced by 20–25% due to the radiatively active short-lived species. One model shows virtually no effect from short-lived species. Intermodel differences are largely related to differences in emissions projections for short-lived species, which are substantial even for a particular storyline. For aerosols, these uncertainties are usually dominant, though for sulfate uncertainties in aerosol physics are also substantial. For tropospheric ozone, uncertainties in physical processes are more important than uncertainties in precursor emissions. Differences in future atmospheric burdens and radiative forcing for aerosols are dominated by divergent assumptions about emissions from South and East Asia. In all three models, the spatial distribution of radiative forcing is less important than that of climate sensitivity in predicting climate impact. Both short-lived and long-lived species appear to cause enhanced climate responses in the same regions of high sensitivity rather than short-lived species having an enhanced effect primarily near polluted areas. Since short-lived species can significantly influence climate, regional air quality emission control strategies for short-lived pollutants may substantially impact climate over large (e.g., hemispheric) scales.

50. Donner, Leo J., Larry W Horowitz, Arlene M Fiore, Charles J Seman, D Blake, and N J Blake, 2007: Transport of radon-222 and methyl iodide by deep convection in the GFDL Global Atmospheric Model AM2. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112, D17303, DOI:10.1029/2006JD007548.
    [ Abstract ]

    Transport of radon-222 and methyl iodide by deep convection is analyzed in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Atmospheric Model 2 (AM2) using two parameterizations for deep convection. One of these parameterizations represents deep convection as an ensemble of entraining plumes; the other represents deep convection as an ensemble of entraining plumes with associated mesoscale updrafts and downdrafts. Although precipitation patterns are generally similar in AM2 with both parameterizations, the deep convective mass fluxes are more than three times larger in the middle- to upper troposphere for the parameterization consisting only of entraining plumes, but do not extend across the tropopause, unlike the parameterization including mesoscale circulations. The differences in mass fluxes result mainly from a different partitioning between convective and stratiform precipitation; the parameterization including mesoscale circulations detrains considerably more water vapor in the middle troposphere and is associated with more stratiform rain. The distributions of both radon-222 and methyl iodide reflect the different mass fluxes. Relative to observations (limited by infrequent spatial and temporal sampling), AM2 tends to simulate lower concentrations of radon-222 and methyl iodide in the planetary boundary layer, producing a negative model bias through much of the troposphere, with both cumulus parameterizations. The shapes of the observed profiles suggest that the larger deep convective mass fluxes and associated transport in the parameterization lacking a mesoscale component are less realistic.

51. Gloor, M, E J Dlugokencky, C Brenninkmeijer, Larry W Horowitz, D Hurst, G Dutton, C Crevoisier, T Machida, and P P Tans, 2007: Three-dimensional SF6 data and tropospheric transport simulations: Signals, modeling accuracy, and implications for inverse modeling. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112, D15112, DOI:10.1029/2006JD007973.
    [ Abstract ]

    Surface emissions of SF6 are closely tied to human activity and thus fairly well known. They therefore can and have been used to evaluate tropospheric transport predicted by models. A range of new atmospheric SF6 data permit us to expand on earlier studies. The purpose of this first of two papers is to characterize known and new transport constraints provided by the data and to use them to quantify predictive skill of the MOZART-2 atmospheric chemistry and transport model. Main noteworthy observational constraints are (1) a well-known steep N-S gradient at the surface confined to an ≈40° wide latitude band in the tropics; (2) a fairly uniform N-S gradient in the upper troposphere; (3) an increase in the temporal variation in upper troposphere Northern Hemisphere records with increasing latitude; (4) a negative SF6 gradient in Northern Hemisphere vertical profiles from the surface to 8 km height, but a positive gradient in the Southern Hemisphere; and (5) a clear reflection in surface records of large-scale seasonal atmosphere movements like the undulations of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Comparison of observations with simulations reveal excellent modeling skills with regards to (1) large-scale annual mean latitudinal gradients at remote surface sites (relative bias of N-S hemisphere difference ≤ 5%) and aloft (≈10 km, relative bias ≤ 25%); (2) seasonality in signals at remote sites caused by large-scale movements of the atmosphere; (3) time variation in upper troposphere records; (4) “faithfulness” of advective transport on timescales up to ≈1 week; and (5) the general shapes and seasonal variation of vertical profiles. The model (1) underestimates the variation in the vertical of profiles, particularly those from locations close to high emissions regions, and (2) overestimates the difference in SF6 between the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and free troposphere over North America, and thus likely Eurasia, during winter by approximately a factor of 2 (STD ≈ 100%). The comparisons permit estimating lower bounds on representation errors which are large for sites close to continental outflow regions. Given the magnitude of the signals and signal variance, SF6 provides a strong constraint on interhemispheric transport, PBL ventilation, dispersion pathways of northern midlatitude surface emissions through the upper troposphere, and large-scale movements of the atmosphere.

52. Horowitz, Larry W., Arlene M Fiore, G P Milly, R C Cohen, A Perring, P J Wooldridge, P G Hess, L K Emmons, and J F Lamarque, 2007: Observational constraints on the chemistry of isoprene nitrates over the eastern United States. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112, D12S08, DOI:10.1029/2006JD007747.
    [ Abstract ]

    The formation of organic nitrates during the oxidation of the biogenic hydrocarbon isoprene can strongly affect boundary layer concentrations of ozone and nitrogen oxides (NO_x = NO + NO₂). We constrain uncertainties in the chemistry of these isoprene nitrates using chemical transport model simulations in conjunction with observations over the eastern United States from the International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation (ICARTT) field campaign during summer 2004. The model best captures the observed boundary layer concentrations of organic nitrates and their correlation with ozone using a 4% yield of isoprene nitrate production from the reaction of isoprene hydroxyperoxy radicals with NO, a recycling of 40% NO_x when isoprene nitrates react with OH and ozone, and a fast dry deposition rate of isoprene nitrates. Simulated boundary layer concentrations are only weakly sensitive to the rate of photochemical loss of the isoprene nitrates. An 8% yield of isoprene nitrates degrades agreement with the observations somewhat, but concentrations are still within 50% of observations and thus cannot be ruled out by this study. Our results indicate that complete recycling of NO_x from the reactions of isoprene nitrates and slow rates of isoprene nitrate deposition are incompatible with the observations. We find that ~50% of the isoprene nitrate production in the model occurs via reactions of isoprene (or its oxidation products) with the NO₃ radical, but note that the isoprene nitrate yield from this pathway is highly uncertain. Using recent estimates of rapid reaction rates with ozone, 20–24% of isoprene nitrates are lost via this pathway, implying that ozonolysis is an important loss process for isoprene nitrates. Isoprene nitrates are shown to have a major impact on the nitrogen oxide (NO_x = NO + NO₂) budget in the summertime U.S. continental boundary layer, consuming 15–19% of the emitted NO_x , of which 4–6% is recycled back to NO_x and the remainder is exported as isoprene nitrates (2–3%) or deposited (8–10%). Our constraints on reaction rates, branching ratios, and deposition rates need to be confirmed through further laboratory and field measurements. The model systematically underestimates free tropospheric concentrations of organic nitrates, indicating a need for future investigation of the processes controlling the observed distribution.

53. Mena-Carrasco, M, Y Tang, G R Carmichael, T Chai, N Thongbongchoo, J E Campbell, S Kulkarni, Larry W Horowitz, Jeffrey Vukovich, M Avery, W Brune, J E Dibb, L K Emmons, F Flocke, G W Sachse, D Tan, Rick Shetter, R W Talbot, D G Streets, G Frost, and D Blake, June 2007: Improving regional ozone modeling through systematic evaluation of errors using the aircraft observations during the International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112, D12S19, DOI:10.1029/2006JD007762.
    [ Abstract ]

    During the operational phase of the ICARTT field experiment in 2004, the regional air quality model STEM showed a strong positive surface bias and a negative upper troposphere bias (compared to observed DC-8 and WP-3 observations) with respect to ozone. After updating emissions from NEI 1999 to NEI 2001 (with a 2004 large point sources inventory update), and modifying boundary conditions, low-level model bias decreases from 11.21 to 1.45 ppbv for the NASA DC-8 observations and from 8.26 to -0.34 for the NOAA WP-3. Improvements in boundary conditions provided by global models decrease the upper troposphere negative ozone bias, while accounting for biomass burning emissions improved model performance for CO. The covariances of ozone bias were highly correlated to NO_z, NO_y, and HNO₃ biases. Interpolation of bias information through kriging showed that decreasing emissions in SE United States would reduce regional ozone model bias and improve model correlation coefficients. The spatial distribution of forecast errors was analyzed using kriging, which identified distinct features, which when compared to errors in postanalysis simulations, helped document improvements. Changes in dry deposition to crops were shown to reduce substantially high bias in the forecasts in the Midwest, while updated emissions were shown to account for decreases in bias in the eastern United States. Observed and modeled ozone production efficiencies for the DC-8 were calculated and shown to be very similar (7.8) suggesting that recurring ozone bias is due to overestimation of NO_x emissions. Sensitivity studies showed that ozone formation in the United States is most sensitive to NO_x emissions, followed by VOCs and CO. PAN as a reservoir of NO_x can contribute to a significant amount of surface ozone through thermal decomposition.

54. Ming, Yi, V Ramaswamy, Leo J Donner, V T J Phillips, Stephen A Klein, Paul Ginoux, and Larry W Horowitz, February 2007: Modeling the interactions between aerosols and liquid water clouds with a self-consistent cloud scheme in a general circulation model. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 64(4), DOI:10.1175/JAS3874.1.
    [ Abstract ]

    To model aerosol-cloud interactions in general circulation models (GCMs), a prognostic cloud scheme of cloud liquid water and amount is expanded to include droplet number concentration (N_d) in a way that allows them to be calculated using the same large-scale and convective updraft velocity field. In the scheme, the evolution of droplets fully interacts with the model meteorology. An explicit treatment of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activation enables the scheme to take into account the contributions to N_d of multiple aerosol species (i.e., sulfate, organic, and sea-salt aerosols) and to consider kinetic limitations of the activation process. An implementation of the prognostic scheme in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) AM2 GCM yields a vertical distribution of N_d with a characteristic maximum in the lower troposphere; this feature differs from the profile that would be obtained if N_dis diagnosed from the sulfate mass concentration based on an often-used empirical relationship. Prognosticated N_d exhibits large variations with respect to the sulfate mass concentration. The mean values are generally consistent with the empirical relationship over ocean, but show negative biases over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude land, perhaps owing to the neglect of subgrid variations of large-scale ascents and inadequate convective sources. The prognostic scheme leads to a substantial improvement in the agreement of model-predicted present-day liquid water path (LWP) and cloud forcing with satellite measurements compared to using the empirical relationship. The simulations with preindustrial and present-day aerosols show that the combined first and second indirect effects of anthropogenic sulfate and organic aerosols give rise to a steady-state global annual mean flux change of -1.8 W m^-2, consisting of -2.0 W m^-2 in shortwave and 0.2 W m^-2 in longwave. The ratios of the flux changes in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) to that in Southern Hemisphere (SH) and of the flux changes over ocean to that over land are 2.9 and 0.73, respectively. These estimates are consistent with the averages of values from previous studies stated in a recent review. The model response to higher Nd alters the cloud field; LWP and total cloud amount increase by 19% and 0.6%, respectively. Largely owing to high sulfate concentrations from fossil fuel burning, the NH midlatitude land and oceans experience strong radiative cooling. So does the tropical land, which is dominated by biomass burning-derived organic aerosol. The computed annual, zonal-mean flux changes are determined to be statistically significant, exceeding the model's natural variations in the NH low and midlatitudes and in the SH low latitudes. This study reaffirms the major role of sulfate in providing CCN for cloud formation.

55. Naik, Vaishali, D L Mauzerall, Larry W Horowitz, M Daniel Schwarzkopf, V Ramaswamy, and M Oppenheimer, 2007: On the sensitivity of radiative forcing from biomass burning aerosols and ozone to emission location. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L03818, DOI:10.1029/2006GL028149.
    [ Abstract ]

    Biomass burning is a major source of air pollutants, some of which are also climate forcing agents. We investigate the sensitivity of direct radiative forcing due to tropospheric ozone and aerosols (carbonaceous and sulfate) to a marginal reduction in their (or their precursor) emissions from major biomass burning regions. We find that the largest negative global forcing is for 10% emission reductions in tropical regions, including Africa (−4.1 mWm⁻² from gas and −4.1 mWm⁻² from aerosols), and South America (−3.0 mWm⁻² from gas and −2.8 mWm⁻² from aerosols). We estimate that a unit reduction in the amount of biomass burned in India produces the largest negative ozone and aerosol forcing. Our analysis indicates that reducing biomass burning emissions causes negative global radiative forcing due to ozone and aerosols; however, regional differences need to be considered when evaluating controls on biomass burning to mitigate global climate change.

56. Singh, H B., L Salas, D Herlth, R Kolyer, E Czech, M Avery, J H Crawford, R B Pierce, G W Sachse, D Blake, R C Cohen, T H Bertram, A Perring, P J Wooldridge, J E Dibb, L G Huey, R C Hudman, S Turquety, L K Emmons, F Flocke, Y Tang, G R Carmichael, and Larry W Horowitz, 2007: Reactive nitrogen distribution and partitioning in the North American troposphere and lowermost stratosphere. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112, D12S04, DOI:10.1029/2006JD007664.
    [ Abstract ]

    A comprehensive group of reactive nitrogen species (NO, NO₂, HNO₃, HO₂NO₂, PANs, alkyl nitrates, and aerosol-NO₃ ^-) were measured over North America during July/August 2004 from the NASA DC-8 platform (0.1–12 km). Nitrogen containing tracers of biomass combustion (HCN and CH₃CN) were also measured along with a host of other gaseous (CO, VOC, OVOC, halocarbon) and aerosol tracers. Clean background air as well as air with influences from biogenic emissions, anthropogenic pollution, biomass combustion, convection, lightning, and the stratosphere was sampled over the continental United States, the Atlantic, and the Pacific. The North American upper troposphere (UT) was found to be greatly influenced by both lightning NO_x and surface pollution lofted via convection and contained elevated concentrations of PAN, ozone, hydrocarbons, and NO_x. Observational data suggest that lightning was a far greater contributor to NO_x in the UT than previously believed. PAN provided a dominant reservoir of reactive nitrogen in the UT while nitric acid dominated in the lower troposphere (LT). Peroxynitric acid (HO₂NO₂) was present in sizable concentrations peaking at around 8 km. Aerosol nitrate appeared to be mostly contained in large soil based particles in the LT. Plumes from Alaskan fires contained large amounts of PAN and aerosol nitrate but little enhancement in ozone. A comparison of observed data with simulations from four 3-D models shows significant differences between observations and models as well as among models. We investigate the partitioning and interplay of the reactive nitrogen species within characteristic air masses and further examine their role in ozone formation.

57. Tang, Y, G R Carmichael, N Thongbongchoo, T Chai, Larry W Horowitz, R B Pierce, J A Al-Saadi, G Pfister, Jeffrey Vukovich, M Avery, G W Sachse, T B Ryerson, J S Holloway, E L Atlas, F Flocke, R J Weber, L G Huey, J E Dibb, D G Streets, and W Brune, 2007: Influence of lateral and top boundary conditions on regional air quality prediction: A multiscale study coupling regional and global chemical transport models. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112, D10S18, DOI:10.1029/2006JD007515.
    [ Abstract ]

    The sensitivity of regional air quality model to various lateral and top boundary conditions is studied at 2 scales: a 60 km domain covering the whole USA and a 12 km domain over northeastern USA. Three global models (MOZART-NCAR, MOZART-GFDL and RAQMS) are used to drive the STEM-2K3 regional model with time-varied lateral and top boundary conditions (BCs). The regional simulations with different global BCs are examined using ICARTT aircraft measurements performed in the summer of 2004, and the simulations are shown to be sensitive to the boundary conditions from the global models, especially for relatively long-lived species, like CO and O₃. Differences in the mean CO concentrations from three different global-model boundary conditions are as large as 40 ppbv, and the effects of the BCs on CO are shown to be important throughout the troposphere, even near surface. Top boundary conditions show strong effect on O₃ predictions above 4 km. Over certain model grids, the model's sensitivity to BCs is found to depend not only on the distance from the domain's top and lateral boundaries, downwind/upwind situation, but also on regional emissions and species properties. The near-surface prediction over polluted area is usually not as sensitive to the variation of BCs, but to the magnitude of their background concentrations. We also test the sensitivity of model to temporal and spatial variations of the BCs by comparing the simulations with time-varied BCs to the corresponding simulations with time-mean and profile BCs. Removing the time variation of BCs leads to a significant bias on the variation prediction and sometime causes the bias in predicted mean values. The effect of model resolution on the BC sensitivity is also studied.

58. West, J J., Arlene M Fiore, Vaishali Naik, Larry W Horowitz, M Daniel Schwarzkopf, and D L Mauzerall, 2007: Ozone air quality and radiative forcing consequences of changes in ozone precursor emissions. Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L06806, DOI:10.1029/2006GL029173.
    [ Abstract ]

    Changes in emissions of ozone (O₃) precursors affect both air quality and climate. We first examine the sensitivity of surface O₃ concentrations (O₃ ^srf) and net radiative forcing of climate (RF_net) to reductions in emissions of four precursors - nitrogen oxides (NO _x ), non-methane volatile organic compounds, carbon monoxide, and methane (CH₄). We show that long-term CH₄-induced changes in O₃, known to be important for climate, are also relevant for air quality; for example, NO _x reductions increase CH₄, causing a long-term O₃ increase that partially counteracts the direct O₃ decrease. Second, we assess the radiative forcing resulting from actions to improve O₃ air quality by calculating the ratio of ΔRF_net to changes in metrics of O₃ ^srf. Decreases in CH₄ emissions cause the greatest RF_net  decrease per unit reduction in O₃ ^srf, while NO _x reductions increase RF_net. Of the available means to improve O₃ air quality, therefore, CH₄ abatement best reduces climate forcing.

59. Bates, T S., T L Anderson, T Baynard, T Bond, O Boucher, G R Carmichael, C Erlick, H Guo, Larry W Horowitz, S Howell, S Kulkarni, H Maring, A McComiskey, A Middlebrook, K Noone, C D O'Dowd, J Ogren, J Penner, P K Quinn, A R Ravishankara, D L Savoie, K M AchutaRao, Y Shinozuka, Y Tang, R J Weber, and Y Wu, 2006: Aerosol direct radiative effects over the northwest Atlantic, northwest Pacific, and North Indian Oceans: estimates based on in-situ chemical and optical measurements and chemical transport modeling. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 6(6), 1657-1732.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    The largest uncertainty in the radiative forcing of climate change over the industrial era is that due to aerosols, a substantial fraction of which is the uncertainty associated with scattering and absorption of shortwave (solar) radiation by anthropogenic aerosols in cloud-free conditions (IPCC, 2001). Quantifying and reducing the uncertainty in aerosol influences on climate is critical to understanding climate change over the industrial period and to improving predictions of future climate change for assumed emission scenarios. Measurements of aerosol properties during major field campaigns in several regions of the globe during the past decade are contributing to an enhanced understanding of atmospheric aerosols and their effects on light scattering and climate. The present study, which focuses on three regions downwind of major urban/population centers (North Indian Ocean (NIO) during INDOEX, the Northwest Pacific Ocean (NWP) during ACE-Asia, and the Northwest Atlantic Ocean (NWA) during ICARTT), incorporates understanding gained from field observations of aerosol distributions and properties into calculations of perturbations in radiative fluxes due to these aerosols. This study evaluates the current state of observations and of two chemical transport models (STEM and MOZART). Measurements of burdens, extinction optical depth (AOD), and direct radiative effect of aerosols (DRE – change in radiative flux due to total aerosols) are used as measurement-model check points to assess uncertainties. In-situ measured and remotely sensed aerosol properties for each region (mixing state, mass scattering efficiency, single scattering albedo, and angular scattering properties and their dependences on relative humidity) are used as input parameters to two radiative transfer models (GFDL and University of Michigan) to constrain estimates of aerosol radiative effects, with uncertainties in each step propagated through the analysis. Constraining the radiative transfer calculations by observational inputs increases the clear-sky, 24-h averaged AOD (34±8%), top of atmosphere (TOA) DRE (32±12%), and TOA direct climate forcing of aerosols (DCF – change in radiative flux due to anthropogenic aerosols) (37±7%) relative to values obtained with "a priori" parameterizations of aerosol loadings and properties (GFDL RTM). The resulting constrained clear-sky TOA DCF is −3.3±0.47, −14±2.6, −6.4±2.1 Wm−2 for the NIO, NWP, and NWA, respectively. With the use of constrained quantities (extensive and intensive parameters) the calculated uncertainty in DCF was 25% less than the "structural uncertainties" used in the IPCC-2001 global estimates of direct aerosol climate forcing. Such comparisons with observations and resultant reductions in uncertainties are essential for improving and developing confidence in climate model calculations incorporating aerosol forcing.

60. Crevoisier, C, M Gloor, E Gloaquen, Larry W Horowitz, Jorge L Sarmiento, C Sweeney, and P P Tans, 2006: A direct carbon budgeting approach to infer carbon sources and sinks. Design and synthetic application to complement the NACP observation network. Tellus B, 58B(5), DOI:10.1111/j.1600-0889.2006.00214.x.
    [ Abstract ]

    In order to exploit the upcoming regular measurements of vertical carbon dioxide (CO₂ profiles over North America implemented in the framework of the North American Carbon Program (NACP), we design a direct carbon budgeting approach to infer carbon sources and sinks over the continent using model simulations. Direct budgeting puts a control volume on top of North America, balances air mass in- and outflows into the volume and solves for the surface fluxes. The flows are derived from the observations through a geostatistical interpolation technique called Kriging combined with transport fields from weather analysis. The use of CO₂ vertical profiles simulated by the atmospheric transport model MOZART-2 at the planned 19 stations of the NACP network has given an estimation of the error of 0.39 GtC yr^-1 within the model world. Reducing this error may be achieved through a better estimation of mass fluxes associated with convective processes affecting North America. Complementary stations in the north-west and the north-east are also needed to resolve the variability of CO₂ in these regions. For instance, the addition of a single station near 52°N; 110°W is shown to decrease the estimation error to 0.34 GtC yr^-1.

61. Delworth, Thomas L., Anthony J Broccoli, Anthony Rosati, Ronald J Stouffer, Ventakramani Balaji, J A Beesley, W F Cooke, Keith W Dixon, John P Dunne, Krista A Dunne, J W Durachta, Kirsten L Findell, Paul Ginoux, Anand Gnanadesikan, C Tony Gordon, Stephen M Griffies, Rich Gudgel, Matthew J Harrison, Isaac M Held, Richard S Hemler, Larry W Horowitz, Stephen A Klein, Thomas R Knutson, P J Kushner, Amy R Langenhorst, H C Lee, Shian-Jiann Lin, Jian Lu, Sergey Malyshev, P C D Milly, V Ramaswamy, J L Russell, M Daniel Schwarzkopf, Elena Shevliakova, Joseph J Sirutis, Michael J Spelman, William F Stern, Michael Winton, Andrew T Wittenberg, Bruce Wyman, Fanrong Zeng, and Rong Zhang, 2006: GFDL's CM2 Global Coupled Climate Models. Part I: Formulation and Simulation Characteristics. Journal of Climate, 19(5), DOI:10.1175/JCLI3629.1.
    [ Abstract ]

    The formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled climate models developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) are described. The models were designed to simulate atmospheric and oceanic climate and variability from the diurnal time scale through multicentury climate change, given our computational constraints. In particular, an important goal was to use the same model for both experimental seasonal to interannual forecasting and the study of multicentury global climate change, and this goal has been achieved. Two versions of the coupled model are described, called CM2.0 and CM2.1. The versions differ primarily in the dynamical core used in the atmospheric component, along with the cloud tuning and some details of the land and ocean components. For both coupled models, the resolution of the land and atmospheric components is 2° latitude × 2.5° longitude; the atmospheric model has 24 vertical levels. The ocean resolution is 1° in latitude and longitude, with meridional resolution equatorward of 30° becoming progressively finer, such that the meridional resolution is 1/3° at the equator. There are 50 vertical levels in the ocean, with 22 evenly spaced levels within the top 220 m. The ocean component has poles over North America and Eurasia to avoid polar filtering. Neither coupled model employs flux adjustments. The control simulations have stable, realistic climates when integrated over multiple centuries. Both models have simulations of ENSO that are substantially improved relative to previous GFDL coupled models. The CM2.0 model has been further evaluated as an ENSO forecast model and has good skill (CM2.1 has not been evaluated as an ENSO forecast model). Generally reduced temperature and salinity biases exist in CM2.1 relative to CM2.0. These reductions are associated with 1) improved simulations of surface wind stress in CM2.1 and associated changes in oceanic gyre circulations; 2) changes in cloud tuning and the land model, both of which act to increase the net surface shortwave radiation in CM2.1, thereby reducing an overall cold bias present in CM2.0; and 3) a reduction of ocean lateral viscosity in the extratropics in CM2.1, which reduces sea ice biases in the North Atlantic. Both models have been used to conduct a suite of climate change simulations for the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report and are able to simulate the main features of the observed warming of the twentieth century. The climate sensitivities of the CM2.0 and CM2.1 models are 2.9 and 3.4 K, respectively. These sensitivities are defined by coupling the atmospheric components of CM2.0 and CM2.1 to a slab ocean model and allowing the model to come into equilibrium with a doubling of atmospheric CO2. The output from a suite of integrations conducted with these models is freely available online (see http://nomads.gfdl.noaa.gov/). Manuscript received 8 December 2004, in final form 18 March 2005

62. Dentener, F, J Drevet, J F Lamarque, I Bey, B Eickhout, Arlene M Fiore, D Hauglustaine, Larry W Horowitz, M Krol, U C Kulshrestha, M G Lawrence, C Galy-Lacaux, S Rast, D Shindell, D Stevenson, T Van Noije, C Atherton, N Bell, D Bergman, T Butler, J Cofala, B Collins, R Doherty, K Ellingsen, J Galloway, M Gauss, V Montanaro, J F Müller, G Pitari, J Rodriguez, M Sanderson, F Solmon, S Strahan, M G Schultz, K Sudo, S Szopa, and O Wild, 2006: Nitrogen and sulfur deposition on regional and global scales: A multimodel evaluation. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 20, GB4003, DOI:10.1029/2005GB002672.
    [ Abstract ]

    We use 23 atmospheric chemistry transport models to calculate current and future (2030) deposition of reactive nitrogen (NOy, NHx) and sulfate (SOx) to land and ocean surfaces. The models are driven by three emission scenarios: (1) current air quality legislation (CLE); (2) an optimistic case of the maximum emissions reductions currently technologically feasible (MFR); and (3) the contrasting pessimistic IPCC SRES A2 scenario. An extensive evaluation of the present-day deposition using nearly all information on wet deposition available worldwide shows a good agreement with observations in Europe and North America, where 60–70% of the model-calculated wet deposition rates agree to within ±50% with quality-controlled measurements. Models systematically overestimate NHx deposition in South Asia, and underestimate NOy deposition in East Asia. We show that there are substantial differences among models for the removal mechanisms of NOy, NHx, and SOx, leading to ±1 σ variance in total deposition fluxes of about 30% in the anthropogenic emissions regions, and up to a factor of 2 outside. In all cases the mean model constructed from the ensemble calculations is among the best when comparing to measurements. Currently, 36–51% of all NOy, NHx, and SOx is deposited over the ocean, and 50–80% of the fraction of deposition on land falls on natural (nonagricultural) vegetation. Currently, 11% of the world's natural vegetation receives nitrogen deposition in excess of the “critical load” threshold of 1000 mg(N) m−2 yr−1. The regions most affected are the United States (20% of vegetation), western Europe (30%), eastern Europe (80%), South Asia (60%), East Asia (40%), southeast Asia (30%), and Japan (50%). Future deposition fluxes are mainly driven by changes in emissions, and less importantly by changes in atmospheric chemistry and climate. The global fraction of vegetation exposed to nitrogen loads in excess of 1000 mg(N) m−2 yr−1 increases globally to 17% for CLE and 25% for A2. In MFR, the reductions in NOy are offset by further increases for NHx deposition. The regions most affected by exceedingly high nitrogen loads for CLE and A2 are Europe and Asia, but also parts of Africa.

63. Dentener, F, D Stevenson, K Ellingsen, T Van Noije, M G Schultz, Larry W Horowitz, and Arlene M Fiore, et al., 2006: The Global Atmospheric Environment for the Next Generation. Environmental Science & Technology, 40(11), DOI:10.1021/es0523845.
    [ Abstract ]

    Air quality, ecosystem exposure to nitrogen deposition, and climate change are intimately coupled problems: we assess changes in the global atmospheric environment between 2000 and 2030 using 26 state-of-the-art global atmospheric chemistry models and three different emissions scenarios. The first (CLE) scenario reflects implementation of current air quality legislation around the world, while the second (MFR) represents a more optimistic case in which all currently feasible technologies are applied to achieve maximum emission reductions. We contrast these scenarios with the more pessimistic IPCC SRES A2 scenario. Ensemble simulations for the year 2000 are consistent among models and show a reasonable agreement with surface ozone, wet deposition, and NO2 satellite observations. Large parts of the world are currently exposed to high ozone concentrations and high deposition of nitrogen to ecosystems. By 2030, global surface ozone is calculated to increase globally by 1.5 ± 1.2 ppb (CLE) and 4.3 ± 2.2 ppb (A2), using the ensemble mean model results and associated ±1 standard deviations. Only the progressive MFR scenario will reduce ozone, by -2.3 ± 1.1 ppb. Climate change is expected to modify surface ozone by -0.8 ± 0.6 ppb, with larger decreases over sea than over land. Radiative forcing by ozone increases by 63 ± 15 and 155 ± 37 mW m-2 for CLE and A2, respectively, and decreases by -45 ± 15 mW m-2 for MFR. We compute that at present 10.1% of the global natural terrestrial ecosystems are exposed to nitrogen deposition above a critical load of 1 g N m-2 yr-1. These percentages increase by 2030 to 15.8% (CLE), 10.5% (MFR), and 25% (A2). This study shows the importance of enforcing current worldwide air quality legislation and the major benefits of going further. Nonattainment of these air quality policy objectives, such as expressed by the SRES-A2 scenario, would further degrade the global atmospheric environment. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

64. Fiore, Arlene M., Larry W Horowitz, E J Dlugokencky, and J J West, 2006: Impact of meteorology and emissions on methane trends, 1990-2004. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L12809, DOI:10.1029/2006GL026199.
    [ Abstract ]

    Over the past century, atmospheric methane (CH4) rose dramatically before leveling off in the late 1990s. The processes controlling this trend are poorly understood, limiting confidence in projections of future CH4. The MOZART-2 global tropospheric chemistry model qualitatively captures the observed CH4 trend (increasing in the early 1990s and then leveling off) with constant emissions. From 1991–1995 to 2000–2004, the CH4 lifetime versus tropospheric OH decreases by 1.6%, reflecting increases in OH and temperature. The rise in OH stems from an increase in lightning NOx as parameterized in the model. A simulation including annually varying anthropogenic and wetland CH4 emissions, as well as the changes in meteorology, best reproduces the observed CH4 distribution, trend, and seasonal cycles. Projections of future CH4 abundances should consider climate-driven changes in CH4 sources and sinks.

65. Ginoux, Paul, Larry W Horowitz, V Ramaswamy, I V Geogdzhayev, B Holben, G Stenchikov, and X Tie, 2006: Evaluation of aerosol distribution and optical depth in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled model CM2.1 for present climate. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, D22210, DOI:10.1029/2005JD006707.
    [ Abstract ]

    This study evaluates the strengths and weaknesses of aerosol distributions and optical depths that are used to force the GFDL coupled climate model CM2.1. The concentrations of sulfate, organic carbon, black carbon, and dust are simulated using the MOZART model (Horowitz, 2006), while sea-salt concentrations are obtained from a previous study by Haywood et al. (1999). These aerosol distributions and precalculated relative-humidity-dependent specific extinction are utilized in the CM2.1 radiative scheme to calculate the aerosol optical depth. Our evaluation of the mean values (1996–2000) of simulated aerosols is based on comparisons with long-term mean climatological data from ground-based and remote sensing observations as well as previous modeling studies. Overall, the predicted concentrations of aerosol are within a factor 2 of the observed values and have a tendency to be overestimated. Comparison with satellite data shows an agreement within 10% of global mean optical depth. This agreement masks regional differences of opposite signs in the optical depth. Essentially, the excessive optical depth from sulfate aerosols compensates for the underestimated contribution from organic and sea-salt aerosols. The largest discrepancies are over the northeastern United States (predicted optical depths are too high) and over biomass burning regions and southern oceans (predicted optical depths are too low). This analysis indicates that the aerosol properties are very sensitive to humidity, and major improvements could be achieved by properly taking into account their hygroscopic growth together with corresponding modifications of their optical properties.

66. Horowitz, Larry W., 2006: Past, present, and future concentrations of tropospheric ozone and aerosols: Methodology, ozone evaluation, and sensitivity to aerosol wet removal. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, D22211, DOI:10.1029/2005JD006937.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    Tropospheric ozone and aerosols are radiatively important trace species, whose concentrations have increased dramatically since preindustrial times and are projected to continue to change in the future. The evolution of ozone and aerosol concentrations from 1860 to 2100 is simulated on the basis of estimated historical emissions and four different future emission scenarios (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2, A1B, B1, and A1FI). The simulations suggest that the tropospheric burden of ozone has increased by 50% and sulfate and carbonaceous aerosol burdens have increased by factors of 3 and 6, respectively, since preindustrial times. Projected ozone changes over the next century range from -6% to +43%, depending on the emissions scenario. Sulfate concentrations are projected to increase for the next several decades but then to decrease by 2100 to 4–45% below their 2000 values. Simulated ozone concentrations agree well with present-day observations and recent trends. Preindustrial surface concentrations of ozone are shown to be sensitive to the assumed anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions, but in all cases they overestimate the few available measurements from that era. Simulated tropospheric burdens of aerosols are sensitive by up to a factor of 2 to assumptions about the rate of aerosol wet deposition in the model. The concentrations of ozone and aerosols produced by this study are provided as climate-forcing agents in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled climate model to estimate their effects on climate. The aerosol distributions from this study and the resulting optical depths are evaluated in a companion paper by P. Ginoux et al. (2006).

67. Kinne, S, M Schulz, C Textor, S Guibert, Y Balkanski, S E Bauer, Paul Ginoux, M Herzog, and Larry W Horowitz, et al., 2006: An AeroCom initial assessment – optical properties in aerosol component modules of global models. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 6, 1815-1834.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    The AeroCom exercise diagnoses multi-component aerosol modules in global modeling. In an initial assessment simulated global distributions for mass and mid-visible aerosol optical thickness (aot) were compared among 20 different modules. Model diversity was also explored in the context of previous comparisons. For the component combined aot general agreement has improved for the annual global mean. At 0.11 to 0.14, simulated aot values are at the lower end of global averages suggested by remote sensing from ground (AERONET ca. 0.135) and space (satellite composite ca. 0.15). More detailed comparisons, however, reveal that larger differences in regional distribution and significant differences in compositional mixture remain. Of particular concern are large model diversities for contributions by dust and carbonaceous aerosol, because they lead to significant uncertainty in aerosol absorption (aab). Since aot and aab, both, influence the aerosol impact on the radiative energy-balance, the aerosol (direct) forcing uncertainty in modeling is larger than differences in aot might suggest. New diagnostic approaches are proposed to trace model differences in terms of aerosol processing and transport: These include the prescription of common input (e.g. amount, size and injection of aerosol component emissions) and the use of observational capabilities from ground (e.g. measurements networks) or space (e.g. correlations between aerosol and clouds).

68. Shindell, D, G Faluvegi, D Stevenson, M Krol, L K Emmons, J F Lamarque, G Pétron, F Dentener, M G Schultz, K Ellingsen, O Wild, Arlene M Fiore, and Larry W Horowitz, et al., 2006: Multimodel simulations of carbon monoxide: Comparison with observations and projected near-future changes. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, D19306, DOI:10.1029/2006JD007100.
    [ Abstract ]

    We analyze present-day and future carbon monoxide (CO) simulations in 26 state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry models run to study future air quality and climate change. In comparison with near-global satellite observations from the MOPITT instrument and local surface measurements, the models show large underestimates of Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical CO, while typically performing reasonably well elsewhere. The results suggest that year-round emissions, probably from fossil fuel burning in east Asia and seasonal biomass burning emissions in south-central Africa, are greatly underestimated in current inventories such as IIASA and EDGAR3.2. Variability among models is large, likely resulting primarily from intermodel differences in representations and emissions of nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) and in hydrologic cycles, which affect OH and soluble hydrocarbon intermediates. Global mean projections of the 2030 CO response to emissions changes are quite robust. Global mean midtropospheric (500 hPa) CO increases by 12.6 ± 3.5 ppbv (16%) for the high-emissions (A2) scenario, by 1.7 ± 1.8 ppbv (2%) for the midrange (CLE) scenario, and decreases by 8.1 ± 2.3 ppbv (11%) for the low-emissions (MFR) scenario. Projected 2030 climate changes decrease global 500 hPa CO by 1.4 ± 1.4 ppbv. Local changes can be much larger. In response to climate change, substantial effects are seen in the tropics, but intermodel variability is quite large. The regional CO responses to emissions changes are robust across models, however. These range from decreases of 10–20 ppbv over much of the industrialized NH for the CLE scenario to CO increases worldwide and year-round under A2, with the largest changes over central Africa (20–30 ppbv), southern Brazil (20–35 ppbv) and south and east Asia (30–70 ppbv). The trajectory of future emissions thus has the potential to profoundly affect air quality over most of the world's populated areas.

69. Stevenson, D, F Dentener, M Schulz, K Ellingsen, T Van Noije, O Wild, Arlene M Fiore, and Larry W Horowitz, et al., 2006: Multimodel ensemble simulations of present-day and near-future tropospheric ozone. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, D08301, DOI:10.1029/2005JD006338.
    [ Abstract ]

    Global tropospheric ozone distributions, budgets, and radiative forcings from an ensemble of 26 state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry models have been intercompared and synthesized as part of a wider study into both the air quality and climate roles of ozone. Results from three 2030 emissions scenarios, broadly representing “optimistic,” “likely,” and “pessimistic” options, are compared to a base year 2000 simulation. This base case realistically represents the current global distribution of tropospheric ozone. A further set of simulations considers the influence of climate change over the same time period by forcing the central emissions scenario with a surface warming of around 0.7K. The use of a large multimodel ensemble allows us to identify key areas of uncertainty and improves the robustness of the results. Ensemble mean changes in tropospheric ozone burden between 2000 and 2030 for the 3 scenarios range from a 5% decrease, through a 6% increase, to a 15% increase. The intermodel uncertainty (±1 standard deviation) associated with these values is about ±25%. Model outliers have no significant influence on the ensemble mean results. Combining ozone and methane changes, the three scenarios produce radiative forcings of −50, 180, and 300 mW m−2, compared to a CO2 forcing over the same time period of 800–1100 mW m−2. These values indicate the importance of air pollution emissions in short- to medium-term climate forcing and the potential for stringent/lax control measures to improve/worsen future climate forcing. The model sensitivity of ozone to imposed climate change varies between models but modulates zonal mean mixing ratios by ±5 ppbv via a variety of feedback mechanisms, in particular those involving water vapor and stratosphere-troposphere exchange. This level of climate change also reduces the methane lifetime by around 4%. The ensemble mean year 2000 tropospheric ozone budget indicates chemical production, chemical destruction, dry deposition and stratospheric input fluxes of 5100, 4650, 1000, and 550 Tg(O3) yr−1, respectively. These values are significantly different to the mean budget documented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report (TAR). The mean ozone burden (340 Tg(O3)) is 10% larger than the IPCC TAR estimate, while the mean ozone lifetime (22 days) is 10% shorter. Results from individual models show a correlation between ozone burden and lifetime, and each model's ozone burden and lifetime respond in similar ways across the emissions scenarios. The response to climate change is much less consistent. Models show more variability in the tropics compared to midlatitudes. Some of the most uncertain areas of the models include treatments of deep tropical convection, including lightning NO x production; isoprene emissions from vegetation and isoprene's degradation chemistry; stratosphere-troposphere exchange; biomass burning; and water vapor concentrations.

70. Textor, C, M Schulz, S Guibert, S Kinne, Y Balkanski, S E Bauer, T F Berglen, Paul Ginoux, and Larry W Horowitz, et al., 2006: Analysis and quantification of the diversities of aerosol life cycles within AeroCom. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 6(7), 1777-1813.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    Simulation results of global aerosol models have been assembled in the framework of the AeroCom intercomparison exercise. In this paper, we analyze the life cycles of dust, sea salt, sulfate, black carbon and particulate organic matter as simulated by sixteen global aerosol models. The differences among the results (model diversities) for sources and sinks, burdens, particle sizes, water uptakes, and spatial dispersals have been established. These diversities have large consequences for the calculated radiative forcing and the aerosol concentrations at the surface. Processes and parameters are identified which deserve further research. The AeroCom all-models-average emissions are dominated by the mass of sea salt (SS), followed by dust (DU), sulfate (SO4), particulate organic matter (POM), and finally black carbon (BC). Interactive parameterizations of the emissions and contrasting particles sizes of SS and DU lead generally to higher diversities of these species, and for total aerosol. The lower diversity of the emissions of the fine aerosols, BC, POM, and SO4, is due to the use of similar emission inventories, and does therefore not necessarily indicate a better understanding of their sources. The diversity of SO4-sources is mainly caused by the disagreement on depositional loss of precursor gases and on chemical production. The diversities of the emissions are passed on to the burdens, but the latter are also strongly affected by the model-specific treatments of transport and aerosol processes. The burdens of dry masses decrease from largest to smallest: DU, SS, SO4, POM, and BC. The all-models-average residence time is shortest for SS with about half a day, followed by SO4 and DU with four days, and POM and BC with six and seven days, respectively. The wet deposition rate is controlled by the solubility and increases from DU, BC, POM to SO4 and SS. It is the dominant sink for SO4, BC, and POM, and contributes about one third to the total removal of SS and DU species. For SS and DU we find high diversities for the removal rate coefficients and deposition pathways. Models do neither agree on the split between wet and dry deposition, nor on that between sedimentation and other dry deposition processes. We diagnose an extremely high diversity for the uptake of ambient water vapor that influences the particle size and thus the sink rate coefficients. Furthermore, we find little agreement among the model results for the partitioning of wet removal into scavenging by convective and stratiform rain. Large differences exist for aerosol dispersal both in the vertical and in the horizontal direction. In some models, a minimum of total aerosol concentration is simulated at the surface. Aerosol dispersal is most pronounced for SO4 and BC and lowest for SS. Diversities are higher for meridional than for vertical dispersal, they are similar for the individual species and highest for SS and DU. For these two components we do not find a correlation between vertical and meridional aerosol dispersal. In addition the degree of dispersals of SS and DU is not related to their residence times. SO4, BC, and POM, however, show increased meridional dispersal in models with larger vertical dispersal, and dispersal is larger for longer simulated residence times.

71. Van Noije, T, H J Eskes, F Dentener, D Stevenson, K Ellingsen, M G Schultz, O Wild, M Amann, C Atherton, D J Bergmann, I Bey, K F Boersma, T Butler, J Cofala, J Drevet, Arlene M Fiore, M Gauss, D Hauglustaine, Larry W Horowitz, I Isaksen, M Krol, J F Lamarque, M G Lawrence, R V Martin, V Montanaro, J F Müller, G Pitari, M J Prather, J A Pyle, A Richter, J Rodriguez, N H Savage, S Strahan, K Sudo, S Szopa, and M van Roozendael, 2006: Multi-model ensemble simulations of tropospheric NO2 compared with GOME retrievals for the year 2000. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 6, 2943-2979.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    We present a systematic comparison of tropospheric NO2 from 17 global atmospheric chemistry models with three state-of-the-art retrievals from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) for the year 2000. The models used constant anthropogenic emissions from IIASA/EDGAR3.2 and monthly emissions from biomass burning based on the 1997–2002 average carbon emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED). Model output is analyzed at 10:30 local time, close to the overpass time of the ERS-2 satellite, and collocated with the measurements to account for sampling biases due to incomplete spatiotemporal coverage of the instrument. We assessed the importance of different contributions to the sampling bias: correlations on seasonal time scale give rise to a positive bias of 30–50% in the retrieved annual means over regions dominated by emissions from biomass burning. Over the industrial regions of the eastern United States, Europe and eastern China the retrieved annual means have a negative bias with significant contributions (between –25% and +10% of the NO2 column) resulting from correlations on time scales from a day to a month. We present global maps of modeled and retrieved annual mean NO2 column densities, together with the corresponding ensemble means and standard deviations for models and retrievals. The spatial correlation between the individual models and retrievals are high, typically in the range 0.81–0.93 after smoothing the data to a common resolution. On average the models underestimate the retrievals in industrial regions, especially over eastern China and over the Highveld region of South Africa, and overestimate the retrievals in regions dominated by biomass burning during the dry season. The discrepancy over South America south of the Amazon disappears when we use the GFED emissions specific to the year 2000. The seasonal cycle is analyzed in detail for eight different continental regions. Over regions dominated by biomass burning, the timing of the seasonal cycle is generally well reproduced by the models. However, over Central Africa south of the Equator the models peak one to two months earlier than the retrievals. We further evaluate a recent proposal to reduce the NOx emission factors for savanna fires by 40% and find that this leads to an improvement of the amplitude of the seasonal cycle over the biomass burning regions of Northern and Central Africa. In these regions the models tend to underestimate the retrievals during the wet season, suggesting that the soil emissions are higher than assumed in the models. In general, the discrepancies between models and retrievals cannot be explained by a priori profile assumptions made in the retrievals, neither by diurnal variations in anthropogenic emissions, which lead to a marginal reduction of the NO2 abundance at 10:30 local time (by 2.5–4.1% over Europe). Overall, there are significant differences among the various models and, in particular, among the three retrievals. The discrepancies among the retrievals (10–50% in the annual mean over polluted regions) indicate that the previously estimated retrieval uncertainties have a large systematic component. Our findings imply that top-down estimations of NOx emissions from satellite retrievals of tropospheric NO2 are strongly dependent on the choice of model and retrieval. Full Article in PDF (1875 KB) Discussion Paper Library Search ACP Library Search ACPD Special Services Printer-friendly Version Bookmark Download Acrobat Reader News ISI Impact Factor: 4.362 (2006) more ISI Special Report on ACP more Most Commented Papers more Personalised Publication Alert Service more New Licence and Copyright Agreement for Publications more We present a systematic comparison of tropospheric NO2 from 17 global atmospheric chemistry models with three state-of-the-art retrievals from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) for the year 2000. The models used constant anthropogenic emissions from IIASA/EDGAR3.2 and monthly emissions from biomass burning based on the 1997–2002 average carbon emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED). Model output is analyzed at 10:30 local time, close to the overpass time of the ERS-2 satellite, and collocated with the measurements to account for sampling biases due to incomplete spatiotemporal coverage of the instrument. We assessed the importance of different contributions to the sampling bias: correlations on seasonal time scale give rise to a positive bias of 30–50% in the retrieved annual means over regions dominated by emissions from biomass burning. Over the industrial regions of the eastern United States, Europe and eastern China the retrieved annual means have a negative bias with significant contributions (between –25% and +10% of the NO2 column) resulting from correlations on time scales from a day to a month. We present global maps of modeled and retrieved annual mean NO2 column densities, together with the corresponding ensemble means and standard deviations for models and retrievals. The spatial correlation between the individual models and retrievals are high, typically in the range 0.81–0.93 after smoothing the data to a common resolution. On average the models underestimate the retrievals in industrial regions, especially over eastern China and over the Highveld region of South Africa, and overestimate the retrievals in regions dominated by biomass burning during the dry season. The discrepancy over South America south of the Amazon disappears when we use the GFED emissions specific to the year 2000. The seasonal cycle is analyzed in detail for eight different continental regions. Over regions dominated by biomass burning, the timing of the seasonal cycle is generally well reproduced by the models. However, over Central Africa south of the Equator the models peak one to two months earlier than the retrievals. We further evaluate a recent proposal to reduce the NOx emission factors for savanna fires by 40% and find that this leads to an improvement of the amplitude of the seasonal cycle over the biomass burning regions of Northern and Central Africa. In these regions the models tend to underestimate the retrievals during the wet season, suggesting that the soil emissions are higher than assumed in the models. In general, the discrepancies between models and retrievals cannot be explained by a priori profile assumptions made in the retrievals, neither by diurnal variations in anthropogenic emissions, which lead to a marginal reduction of the NO2 abundance at 10:30 local time (by 2.5–4.1% over Europe). Overall, there are significant differences among the various models and, in particular, among the three retrievals. The discrepancies among the retrievals (10–50% in the annual mean over polluted regions) indicate that the previously estimated retrieval uncertainties have a large systematic component. Our findings imply that top-down estimations of NOx emissions from satellite retrievals of tropospheric NO2 are strongly dependent on the choice of model and retrieval.

72. West, J J., Arlene M Fiore, Larry W Horowitz, and D L Mauzerall, 2006: Global health benefits of mitigating ozone pollution with methane emission controls. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 103(11), DOI:10.1073/pnas.0600201103.
    [ Abstract ]

    Methane (CH4) contributes to the growing global background concentration of tropospheric ozone (O3), an air pollutant associated with premature mortality. Methane and ozone are also important greenhouse gases. Reducing methane emissions therefore decreases surface ozone everywhere while slowing climate warming, but although methane mitigation has been considered to address climate change, it has not for air quality. Here we show that global decreases in surface ozone concentrations, due to methane mitigation, result in substantial and widespread decreases in premature human mortality. Reducing global anthropogenic methane emissions by 20% beginning in 2010 would decrease the average daily maximum 8-h surface ozone by 1 part per billion by volume globally. By using epidemiologic ozone-mortality relationships, this ozone reduction is estimated to prevent 30,000 premature all-cause mortalities globally in 2030, and 370,000 between 2010 and 2030. If only cardiovascular and respiratory mortalities are considered, 17,000 global mortalities can be avoided in 2030. The marginal cost-effectiveness of this 20% methane reduction is estimated to be $420,000 per avoided mortality. If avoided mortalities are valued at $1 million each, the benefit is $240 per tonne of CH4 ($12 per tonne of CO2 equivalent), which exceeds the marginal cost of the methane reduction. These estimated air pollution ancillary benefits of climate-motivated methane emission reductions are comparable with those estimated previously for CO2. Methane mitigation offers a unique opportunity to improve air quality globally and can be a cost-effective component of international ozone management, bringing multiple benefits for air quality, public health, agriculture, climate, and energy. human health | mortality | tropospheric ozone | air quality

73. Fiore, Arlene M., Larry W Horowitz, D W Purves, Hiram Levy II, M J Evans, Y Wang, Q Li, and R M Yantosca, 2005: Evaluating the contribution of changes in isoprene emissions to surface ozone trends over the eastern United States. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, D12303, DOI:10.1029/2004JD005485.
    [ Abstract ]

    Reducing surface ozone (O3) to concentrations in compliance with the national air quality standard has proven to be challenging, despite tighter controls on O3 precursor emissions over the past few decades. New evidence indicates that isoprene emissions changed considerably from the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s owing to land-use changes in the eastern United States (Purves et al., 2004). Over this period, U.S. anthropogenic VOC (AVOC) emissions decreased substantially. Here we apply two chemical transport models (GEOS-CHEM and MOZART-2) to test the hypothesis, put forth by Purves et al. (2004), that the absence of decreasing O3 trends over much of the eastern United States may reflect a balance between increases in isoprene emissions and decreases in AVOC emissions. We find little evidence for this hypothesis; over most of the domain, mean July afternoon (1300–1700 local time) surface O3 is more responsive (ranging from -9 to +7 ppbv) to the reported changes in anthropogenic NOx emissions than to the concurrent isoprene (-2 to +2 ppbv) or AVOC (-2 to 0 ppbv) emission changes. The estimated magnitude of the O3 response to anthropogenic NOx emission changes, however, depends on the base isoprene emission inventory used in the model. The combined effect of the reported changes in eastern U.S. anthropogenic plus biogenic emissions is insufficient to explain observed changes in mean July afternoon surface O3 concentrations, suggesting a possible role for decadal changes in meteorology, hemispheric background O3, or subgrid-scale chemistry. We demonstrate that two major uncertainties, the base isoprene emission inventory and the fate of isoprene nitrates (which influence surface O3 in the model by -15 to +4 and +4 to +12 ppbv, respectively), preclude a well-constrained quantification of the present-day contribution of biogenic or anthropogenic emissions to surface O3 concentrations, particularly in the high-isoprene-emitting southeastern United States. Better constraints on isoprene emissions and chemistry are needed to quantitatively address the role of isoprene in eastern U.S. air quality.

74. Lamarque, J F., J T Kiehl, G P Brasseur, T Butler, P Cameron-Smith, W D Collins, W J Collins, C Granier, D Hauglustaine, P G Hess, E A Holland, Larry W Horowitz, M G Lawrence, D McKenna, P Merilees, M J Prather, K M AchutaRao, D Rotman, D Shindell, and P Thornton, 2005: Assessing future nitrogen deposition and carbon cycle feedback using a multimodel approach: Analysis of nitrogen deposition. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, D19303, DOI:10.1029/2005JD005825.
    [ Abstract ]

    In this study, we present the results of nitrogen deposition on land from a set of 29 simulations from six different tropospheric chemistry models pertaining to present-day and 2100 conditions. Nitrogen deposition refers here to the deposition (wet and dry) of all nitrogen-containing gas phase chemical species resulting from NO_x (NO + NO₂) emissions. We show that under the assumed IPCC SRES A2 scenario the global annual average nitrogen deposition over land is expected to increase by a factor of ~2.5, mostly because of the increase in nitrogen emissions. This will significantly expand the areas with annual average deposition exceeding 1 gN/m²/year. Using the results from all models, we have documented the strong linear relationship between models on the fraction of the nitrogen emissions that is deposited, regardless of the emissions (present day or 2100). On average, approximately 70% of the emitted nitrogen is deposited over the landmasses. For present-day conditions the results from this study suggest that the deposition over land ranges between 25 and 40 Tg(N)/year. By 2100, under the A2 scenario, the deposition over the continents is expected to range between 60 and 100 Tg(N)/year. Over forests the deposition is expected to increase from 10 Tg(N)/year to 20 Tg(N)/year. In 2100 the nitrogen deposition changes from changes in the climate account for much less than the changes from increased nitrogen emissions.

75. Liu, J, D L Mauzerall, and Larry W Horowitz, 2005: Analysis of seasonal and interannual variability in transpacific transport. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, D04302, DOI:10.1029/2004JD005207.
    [ Abstract ]

    The purpose of our analysis is both to evaluate the meteorological component of the seasonal and interannual variability of transpacific transport and to identify meteorological features that can be used to estimate transpacific transport. To accomplish this goal, we simulate the transport of nine continental tracers with uniform emissions and two-week lifetimes using the global Model of Ozone and Related Tracers Version 2 (MOZART-2) driven with NCEP reanalysis meteorology from 1991-2001. In addition, we define a transpacific transport potential, a measure of the quantity of a tracer transported from a particular region normalized by its total emissions from that region, across a meridional plane in the eastern Pacific at 130°W. We find that at midlatitudes, the east Asian and Indian tracers have the largest transport potentials, particularly in spring. The interannual variability of the transpacific transport potentials of most tracers is relatively high in winter and fall (particularly in February and September) but is low from April to August. At high latitudes the former Soviet Union, east Asian, and European tracers have the largest transpacific transport potentials, especially in late summer and fall, when the lowest interannual variability is observed. We find that El Niño winters are associated with stronger eastward transport of east Asian emissions in the subtropical eastern Pacific. Transport of the east Asian tracer in the central North Pacific is well correlated with the North Pacific Index. However, we find that the interannual variability of transport across the west coast of North America is mostly driven by local meteorology. We therefore created a new index based on meteorology over the eastern Pacific, which we call the Eastern Pacific Index (EPI). The EPI captures most of the interannual variability of transpacific transport at both middle- and high-latitude regions across the west coast of North America.

76. Ming, Yi, V Ramaswamy, Paul Ginoux, and Larry W Horowitz, 2005: Direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic organic aerosol. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, D20208, DOI:10.1029/2004JD005573.
    [ Abstract ]

    This study simulates the direct radiative forcing of organic aerosol using the GFDL AM2 GCM. The aerosol climatology is provided by the MOZART chemical transport model (CTM). The approach to calculating aerosol optical properties explicitly considers relative humidity–dependent hygroscopic growth by employing a functional group–based thermodynamic model, and makes use of the size distribution derived from AERONET measurements. The preindustrial (PI) and present-day (PD) global burdens of organic carbon are 0.17 and 1.36 Tg OC, respectively. The annual global mean total-sky and clear-sky top-of-the atmosphere (TOA) forcings (PI to PD) are estimated as −0.34 and −0.71 W m⁻², respectively. Geographically the radiative cooling largely lies over the source regions, namely part of South America, Central Africa, Europe and South and East Asia. The annual global mean total-sky and clear-sky surface forcings are −0.63 and −0.98 W m⁻², respectively. A series of sensitivity analyses shows that the treatments of hygroscopic growth and optical properties of organic aerosol are intertwined in the determination of the global organic aerosol forcing. For example, complete deprivation of water uptake by hydrophilic organic particles reduces the standard (total-sky) and clear-sky TOA forcing estimates by 18% and 20%, respectively, while the uptake by a highly soluble organic compound (malonic acid) enhances them by 18% and 32%, respectively. Treating particles as non-absorbing enhances aerosol reflection and increases the total-sky and clear-sky TOA forcing by 47% and 18%, respectively, while neglecting the scattering brought about by the water associated with particles reduces them by 24% and 7%, respectively.

77. Ming, Yi, V Ramaswamy, Paul Ginoux, Larry W Horowitz, and L M Russell, 2005: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory general circulation model investigation of the indirect radiative effects of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, D22206, DOI:10.1029/2005JD006161.
    [ Abstract ]

    The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) atmosphere general circulation model, with its new cloud scheme, is employed to study the indirect radiative effect of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol during the industrial period. The preindustrial and present-day monthly mean aerosol climatologies are generated from running the Model for Ozone And Related chemical Tracers (MOZART) chemistry-transport model. The respective global annual mean sulfate burdens are 0.22 and 0.81 Tg S. Cloud droplet number concentrations are related to sulfate mass concentrations using an empirical relationship (Boucher and Lohmann, 1995). A distinction is made between "forcing" and flux change at the top of the atmosphere in this study. The simulations, performed with prescribed sea surface temperature, show that the first indirect "forcing" ("Twomey" effect) amounts to an annual mean of -1.5 W m^-2, concentrated largely over the oceans in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The annual mean flux change owing to the response of the model to the first indirect effect is -1.4 W m^-2, similar to the annual mean forcing. However, the model's response causes a rearrangement of cloud distribution as well as changes in longwave flux (smaller than solar flux changes). There is thus a differing geographical nature of the radiation field than for the forcing even though the global means are similar. The second indirect effect, which is necessarily an estimate made in terms of the model's response, amounts to -0.9 W m^-2, but the statistical significance of the simulated geographical distribution of this effect is relatively low owing to the model's natural variability. Both the first and second effects are approximately linearly additive, giving rise to a combined annual mean flux change of -2.3 W m^-2, with the NH responsible for 77% of the total flux change. Statistically significant model responses are obtained for the zonal mean total indirect effect in the entire NH and in the Southern Hemisphere low latitudes and midlatitudes (north of 45°S). The area of significance extends more than for the first and second effects considered separately. A comparison with a number of previous studies based on the same sulfate-droplet relationship shows that, after distinguishing between forcing and flux change, the global mean change in watts per square meter for the total effect computed in this study is comparable to existing studies in spite of the differences in cloud schemes.

78. Naik, Vaishali, D L Mauzerall, Larry W Horowitz, M Daniel Schwarzkopf, V Ramaswamy, and M Oppenheimer, 2005: Net radiative forcing due to changes in regional emissions of tropospheric ozone precursors. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, D24306, DOI:10.1029/2005JD005908.
    [ Abstract ]

    The global distribution of tropospheric ozone (O₃) depends on the emission of precursors, chemistry, and transport. For small perturbations to emissions, the global radiative forcing resulting from changes in O₃ can be expressed as a sum of forcings from emission changes in different regions. Tropospheric O₃ is considered in present climate policies only through the inclusion of indirect effect of CH₄ on radiative forcing through its impact on O₃ concentrations. The short-lived O₃ precursors (NO_x , CO, and NMHCs) are not directly included in the Kyoto Protocol or any similar climate mitigation agreement. In this study, we quantify the global radiative forcing resulting from a marginal reduction (10%) in anthropogenic emissions of NO_x alone from nine geographic regions and a combined marginal reduction in NO_x , CO, and NMHCs emissions from three regions. We simulate, using the global chemistry transport model MOZART-2, the change in the distribution of global O₃ resulting from these emission reductions. In addition to the short-term reduction in O₃, these emission reductions also increase CH₄concentrations (by decreasing OH); this increase in CH₄ in turn counteracts part of the initial reduction in O₃ concentrations. We calculate the global radiative forcing resulting from the regional emission reductions, accounting for changes in both O₃ and CH₄. Our results show that changes in O₃ production and resulting distribution depend strongly on the geographical location of the reduction in precursor emissions. We find that the global O₃ distribution and radiative forcing are most sensitive to changes in precursor emissions from tropical regions and least sensitive to changes from midlatitude and high-latitude regions. Changes in CH₄ and O₃ concentrations resulting from NO_x emission reductions alone produce offsetting changes in radiative forcing, leaving a small positive residual forcing (warming) for all regions. In contrast, for combined reductions of anthropogenic emissions of NO_x , CO, and NMHCs, changes in O₃ and CH₄ concentrations result in a net negative radiative forcing (cooling). Thus we conclude that simultaneous reductions of CO, NMHCs, and NO_x lead to a net reduction in radiative forcing due to resulting changes in tropospheric O₃ and CH₄ while reductions in NO_x emissions alone do not.

79. Anderson, Jeffrey L., Ventakramani Balaji, Anthony J Broccoli, W F Cooke, Thomas L Delworth, Keith W Dixon, Leo J Donner, Krista A Dunne, Stuart Freidenreich, Stephen T Garner, Rich Gudgel, C Tony Gordon, Isaac M Held, Richard S Hemler, Larry W Horowitz, Stephen A Klein, Thomas R Knutson, P J Kushner, Amy R Langenhorst, Ngar-Cheung Lau, Z Liang, Sergey Malyshev, P C D Milly, Mary Jo Nath, Jeff J Ploshay, V Ramaswamy, M Daniel Schwarzkopf, Elena Shevliakova, Joseph J Sirutis, Brian J Soden, William F Stern, Lori T Sentman, R John Wilson, Andrew T Wittenberg, and Bruce Wyman, December 2004: The New GFDL global atmosphere and land model AM2–LM2: Evaluation with prescribed SST simulations. Journal of Climate, 17(24), 4641-4673.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    for climate research developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) are presented. The atmosphere model, known as AM2, includes a new gridpoint dynamical core, a prognostic cloud scheme, and a multispecies aerosol climatology, as well as components from previous models used at GFDL. The land model, known as LM2, includes soil sensible and latent heat storage, groundwater storage, and stomatal resistance. The performance of the coupled model AM2–LM2 is evaluated with a series of prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) simulations. Particular focus is given to the model's climatology and the characteristics of interannual variability related to E1 Niño– Southern Oscillation (ENSO). One AM2–LM2 integration was performed according to the prescriptions of the second Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP II) and data were submitted to the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI). Particular strengths of AM2–LM2, as judged by comparison to other models participating in AMIP II, include its circulation and distributions of precipitation. Prominent problems of AM2– LM2 include a cold bias to surface and tropospheric temperatures, weak tropical cyclone activity, and weak tropical intraseasonal activity associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation. An ensemble of 10 AM2–LM2 integrations with observed SSTs for the second half of the twentieth century permits a statistically reliable assessment of the model's response to ENSO. In general, AM2–LM2 produces a realistic simulation of the anomalies in tropical precipitation and extratropical circulation that are associated with ENSO.

80. Fan, Song-Miao, Larry W Horowitz, Hiram Levy II, and Walter Moxim, 2004: Impact of air pollution on wet deposition of mineral dust aerosols. Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L02104, DOI:10.1029/2003GL018501.
    [ Abstract ]

    Mineral dust aerosols originating from arid regions are simulated in an atmospheric global chemical transport model. Based on model results and observations of dust concentration, we hypothesize that air pollution increases the scavenging of dust by producing high levels of readily soluble materials on the dust surface, which makes dust aerosols effective cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). This implies that air pollution could have caused an increase of dust deposition to the coastal oceans of East Asia and a decrease by as much as 50% in the eastern North Pacific.

81. Goldstein, A H., D B Millet, M McKay, L Jaeglé, Larry W Horowitz, O Cooper, R Hudman, D J Jacob, S J Oltmans, and A Clarke, 2004: Impact of Asian emissions on observations at Trinidad Head, California, during ITCT 2K2. Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, D23S17, DOI:10.1029/2003/JD004406.
    [ Abstract ]

    Field measurements of a wide suite of trace gases and aerosols were carried out during April and May 2002, along with extensive chemical transport modeling, as part of the NOAA Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation study. Here, we use a combination of in-situ ground-based measurements from Trinidad Head, CA, chemical transport modeling, and backward trajectory analysis to examine the impact of long-range transport from Asia on the composition of air masses arriving at the California coast at the surface. The impact of Asian emissions is explored in terms of both episodic enhancements and contribution to background concentrations. We find that variability in CO concentrations at the ground site was largely driven by North American emissions, and that individual Asian plumes did not cause any observable pollution enhancement episodes at Trinidad Head. Despite this, model simulations suggest that Asian emissions were responsible for 33% of the CO observed at Trinidad Head, providing a larger mean contribution than direct emissions from any other region of the globe. Surface ozone levels were found to depend primarily on local atmospheric mixing, with surface deposition leading to low concentrations under stagnant conditions. Model simulations suggested that on average 4 ± 1 ppb of ozone (10% of observed) at Trinidad Head was transported from Asia.

82. Tang, Y, G R Carmichael, and Larry W Horowitz, et al., 2004: Multiscale simulations of tropospheric chemistry in the eastern Pacific and on the U.S. West Coast during spring 2002. Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, D23S11, DOI:10.1029/2004JD004513.
    [ Abstract ]

    Regional modeling analysis for the Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation 2002 (ITCT 2K2) experiment over the eastern Pacific and U.S. West Coast is performed using a multiscale modeling system, including the regional tracer model Chemical Weather Forecasting System (CFORS), the Sulfur Transport and Emissions Model 2003 (STEM-2K3) regional chemical transport model, and an off-line coupling with the Model of Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers (MOZART) global chemical transport model. CO regional tracers calculated online in the CFORS model are used to identify aircraft measurement periods with Asian influences. Asian-influenced air masses measured by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) WP-3 aircraft in this experiment are found to have lower ?Acetone/?CO, ?Methanol/?CO, and ?Propane/?Ethyne ratios than air masses influenced by U.S. emissions, reflecting differences in regional emission signals. The Asian air masses in the eastern Pacific are found to usually be well aged (>5 days), to be highly diffused, and to have low NOy levels. Chemical budget analysis is performed for two flights, and the O3 net chemical budgets are found to be negative (net destructive) in the places dominated by Asian influences or clear sites and positive in polluted American air masses. During the trans-Pacific transport, part of gaseous HNO3 was converted to nitrate particle, and this conversion was attributed to NOy decline. Without the aerosol consideration, the model tends to overestimate HNO3 background concentration along the coast region. At the measurement site of Trinidad Head, northern California, high-concentration pollutants are usually associated with calm wind scenarios, implying that the accumulation of local pollutants leads to the high concentration. Seasonal variations are also discussed from April to May for this site. A high-resolution nesting simulation with 12-km horizontal resolution is used to study the WP-3 flight over Los Angeles and surrounding areas. This nested simulation significantly improved the predictions for emitted and secondary generated species. The difference of photochemical behavior between the coarse (60-km) and nesting simulations is discussed and compared with the observation.

83. Emmons, L K., P G Hess, A Klonecki, X Tie, Larry W Horowitz, J F Lamarque, D Kinnison, G P Brasseur, R Atlas, E Browell, C Cantrell, F Eisele, R L Mauldin, J Merrill, B Ridley, and Rick Shetter, 2003: Budget of tropospheric ozone during TOPSE from two chemical transport models. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108(D8), 8372, DOI:10.1029/2002JD002665.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    The tropospheric ozone budget during the Tropospheric Ozone Production about the Spring Equinox (TOPSE) campaign has been studied using two chemical transport models (CTMs): HANK and the Model of Ozone and Related chemical Tracers, version 2 (MOZART-2). The two models have similar chemical schemes but use different meteorological fields, with HANK using MM5 (Pennsylvania State University, National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Modeling System) and MOZART-2 driven by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) fields. Both models simulate ozone in good agreement with the observations but underestimate NO_x. The models indicate that in the troposphere, averaged over the northern middle and high latitudes, chemical production of ozone drives the increase of ozone seen in the spring. Both ozone gross chemical production and loss increase greatly over the spring months. The in situ production is much larger than the net stratospheric input, and the deposition and horizontal fluxes are relatively small in comparison to chemical destruction. The net production depends sensitively on the concentrations of H₂O, HO₂ and NO, which differ slightly in the two models. Both models underestimate the chemical production calculated in a steady state model using TOPSE measurements, but the chemical loss rates agree well. Measures of the stratospheric influence on tropospheric ozone in relation to in situ ozone production are discussed. Two different estimates of the stratospheric fraction of O₃ in the Northern Hemisphere troposphere indicate it decreases from 30-50% in February to 15-30% in June. A sensitivity study of the effect of a perturbation in the vertical flux on tropospheric ozone indicates the contribution from the stratosphere is approximately 15%.

84. Horowitz, Larry W., S Walters, D L Mauzerall, L K Emmons, P J Rasch, C Granier, X Tie, J F Lamarque, M Schulz, G S Tyndall, Isidoro Orlanski, and G P Brasseur, 2003: A global simulation of tropospheric ozone and related tracers: description and evaluation of MOZART, version 2. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108(D24), 4784, DOI:10.1029/2002JD002853.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    We have developed a global three-dimensional chemical transport model called Model of Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers (MOZART), version 2. This model, which will be made available to the community, is built on the framework of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH) and can easily be driven with various meteorological inputs and model resolutions. In this work, we describe the standard configuration of the model, in which the model is driven by meteorological inputs every 3 hours from the middle atmosphere version of the NCAR Community Climate Model (MACCM3) and uses a 20-min time step and a horizontal resolution of 2.8° latitude × 2.8° longitude with 34 vertical levels extending up to approximately 40 km. The model includes a detailed chemistry scheme for tropospheric ozone, nitrogen oxides, and hydrocarbon chemistry, with 63 chemical species. Tracer advection is performed using a flux-form semi-Lagrangian scheme with a pressure fixer. Subgrid-scale convective and boundary layer parameterizations are included in the model. Surface emissions include sources from fossil fuel combustion, biofuel and biomass burning, biogenic and soil emissions, and oceanic emissions. Parameterizations of dry and wet deposition are included. Stratospheric concentrations of several long-lived species (including ozone) are constrained by relaxation toward climatological values. The distribution of tropospheric ozone is well simulated in the model, including seasonality and horizontal and vertical gradients. However, the model tends to overestimate ozone near the tropopause at high northern latitudes. Concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and nitric acid (HNO3) agree well with observed values, but peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN) is overestimated by the model in the upper troposphere at several locations. Carbon monoxide (CO) is simulated well at most locations, but the seasonal cycle is underestimated at some sites in the Northern Hemisphere. We find that in situ photochemical production and loss dominate the tropospheric ozone budget, over input from the stratosphere and dry deposition. Approximately 75% of the tropospheric production and loss of ozone occurs within the tropics, with large net production in the tropical upper troposphere. Tropospheric production and loss of ozone are three to four times greater in the northern extratropics than the southern extratropics. The global sources of CO consist of photochemical production (55%) and direct emissions (45%). The tropics dominate the chemistry of CO, accounting for about 75% of the tropospheric production and loss. The global budgets of tropospheric ozone and CO are generally consistent with the range found in recent studies. The lifetime of methane (9.5 years) and methylchloroform (5.7 years) versus oxidation by tropospheric hydroxyl radical (OH), two useful measures of the global abundance of OH, agree well with recent estimates. Concentrations of nonmethane hydrocarbons and oxygenated intermediates (carbonyls and peroxides) generally agree well with observations.

85. Tie, X, L K Emmons, Larry W Horowitz, G P Brasseur, B Ridley, E L Atlas, C Stround, P G Hess, A Klonecki, S Madronich, R W Talbot, and J E Dibb, 2003: Effect of sulfate aerosol on tropospheric NO_x and ozone budgets: Model simulations and TOPSE evidence. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108(D4), 8364, DOI:10.1029/2001JD001508.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    The distributions of NO_x and O₃ are analyzed during TOPSE (Tropospheric Ozone Production about the Spring Equinox). In this study these data are compared with the calculations of a global chemical/transport model (Model for OZone And Related chemical Tracers (MOZART)). Specifically, the effect that hydrolysis of N₂O₅ on sulfate aerosols has on tropospheric NO_x and O₃ budgets is studied. The results show that without this heterogeneous reaction, the model significantly overestimates NO_x concentrations at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) in winter and spring in comparison to the observations during TOPSE; with this reaction, modeled NO_x concentrations are close to the measured values. This comparison provides evidence that the hydrolysis of N₂O₅ on sulfate aerosol plays an important role in controlling the tropospheric NO_x and O₃ budgets. The calculated reduction of NO_x attributed to this reaction is 80 to 90% in winter at high latitudes over North America. Because of the reduction of NO_x, O₃ concentrations are also decreased. The maximum O₃ reduction occurs in spring although the maximum NO_x reduction occurs in winter when photochemical O₃ production is relatively low. The uncertainties related to uptake coefficient and aerosol loading in the model is analyzed. The analysis indicates that the changes in NO_xdue to these uncertainties are much smaller than the impact of hydrolysis of N₂O₅ on sulfate aerosol. The effect that hydrolysis of N₂O₅ on global NO_x and O₃ budgets are also assessed by the model. The results suggest that in the Northern Hemisphere, the average NO_x budget decreases 50% due to this reaction in winter and 5% in summer. The average O₃ budget is reduced by 8% in winter and 6% in summer. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), the sulfate aerosol loading is significantly smaller than in the Northern Hemisphere. As a result, sulfate aerosol has little impact on NO_x and O₃ budgets of the Southern Hemisphere.

86. Liang, J, Larry W Horowitz, D J Jacob, Y Wang, and Arlene M Fiore, et al., 1998: Seasonal budgets of reactive nitrogen species and ozone over the United States, and export fluxes to the global atmosphere. Journal of Geophysical Research, 103(D11), 13,435-13,450.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    A three-dimensional, continental-scale photochemical model is used to investigate seasonal budgets of O3 and NO y species (including NO x and its oxidation products) in the boundary layer over the United States and to estimate the export of these species from the U.S. boundary layer to the global atmosphere. Model results are evaluated with year-round observations for O3, CO, and NO y species at nonurban sites. A seasonal transition from NO x to hydrocarbon-limited conditions for O3 production over the eastern United States is found to take place in the fall, with the reverse transition taking place in the spring. The mean NO x /NO y molar ratio in the U.S. boundary layer in the model ranges from 0.2 in summer to 0.6 in winter, in accord with observations, and reflecting largely the seasonal variation in the chemical lifetime of NO x . Formation of hydroxy organic nitrates during oxidation of isoprene, followed by decomposition of these nitrates to HNO3, is estimated to account for 30% of the chemical sink of NO x in the U.S. boundary layer in summer. Model results indicate that peroxyacylnitrates (PANs) are most abundant in the U.S. boundary layer in spring (25% of total NO y .), reflecting a combination of active photochemistry and low temperatures. About 20% of the NO x emitted from fossil fuel combustion in the United States in the model is exported out of the U.S. boundary layer as NO x or PANs (15% in summer, 25% in winter). This export responds less than proportionally to changes in NO x emissions in summer, but more than proportionally in winter. The annual mean export of NO x and PANs from the U.S. boundary layer is estimated to be 1.4 Tg N yr−1, representing an important source of NO x on the scale of the northern hemisphere troposphere. The eventual O3 production in the global troposphere due to the exported NO x and PANs is estimated to be twice as large, on an annual basis, as the direct export of O3 pollution from the U.S. boundary layer. Fossil fuel combustion in the United States is estimated to account for about 10% of the total source of O3 in the northern hemisphere troposphere on an annual basis

87. Olson, J, and Larry W Horowitz, et al., 1997: Results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Photochemical Model Intercomparison. Journal of Geophysical Research, 102(D5), 5979-5991.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    Results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) tropospheric photochemical model intercomparison (PhotoComp) are presented with a brief discussion of the factors that may contribute to differences in the modeled behaviors of HO_x cycling and the accompanying O₃ tendencies. PhotoComp was a tightly controlled model experiment in which the IPCC 1994 assessment sought to determine the consistency among models that are used to predict changes in tropospheric ozone, an important greenhouse gas. Calculated tropospheric photodissociation rates displayed significant differences, with a root-mean-square (rms) error of the reported model results ranging from about ±6-9% of the mean (for O₃ and NO₂) to up to ±15% (H₂O₂ and CH₂O). Models using multistream methods in radiative transfer calculations showed distinctly higher rates for photodissociation of NO₂ and CH₂O compared to models using two-stream methods, and this difference accounted for up to one third of the rms error for these two rates. In general, some small but systematic differences between models were noted for the predicted chemical tendencies in cases that did not include reactions of nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHC). These differences in modeled O₃ tendencies in some cases could be identified, for example, as being due to differences in photodissociation rates, but in others they could not and must be ascribed to unidentified errors. O₃tendencies showed rms errors of about ±10% in the moist, surface level cases with NO_x concentrations equal to a few tens of parts per trillion by volume. Most of these model to model differences can be traced to differences in the destruction of O₃ due to reaction with HO₂. Differences in HO₂, in turn, are likely due to (1) inconsistent reaction rates used by the models for the conversion of HO₂ to H₂O₂ and (2) differences in the model-calculated photolysis of H₂O₂ and CH₂O. In the middle tropospheric "polluted" scenario with NOx concentrations larger than a few parts per billion by volume, O₃ tendencies showed rms errors of ±10-30%. These model to model differences most likely stem from differences in the calculated rates of O₃ photolysis to O(1D), which provides about 80% of the HO_x source under these conditions. The introduction of hydrocarbons dramatically increased both the rate of NO_x loss and its model differences, which, in turn, are reflected in an increased spread of predicted O₃. Including NMHC in the simulation approximately doubled the rms error for O₃ concentration.

Direct link to page: http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/results.php?author=1056