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EMC > GLOBAL BRANCH > GFS > PERFORMANCE

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GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM

The Environmental Modeling Center continuously monitors its NWP model performance against different performance measures, and against its 'competition' from other global forecast centers. Click (+/-) to see more information.

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OPERATIONAL	NCEP/EMC Global Model Performance Statistics	link
	Global Model Performance Statistics (longer record) and Daily Weather Maps	link / maps
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SEMI-OPERATIONAL	Diagnostics of the Performance of the NCEP Operational Global Analysis/Forecast System (+/-) (verified against analyses) Includes text explaining graphic display of model diagnostics, and monthly diagnostics from October 1998 to last completed month. Includes diagnostics for dynamical variables: Zonal Mean Height and Temperature Errors Regional Temperature Errors Vertical Cross-sections of Temperature Errors> Temperature Errors and Diabatic Heating Regional Height Errors Zonal Wind Errors Meridional Wind Errors Vector Wind Errors Vertical Motion Errors Horizontal Wind Divergence A Measure of the Noise: Squared Divergence> Forecast Bias In Specific Humidity and physical processes: Precipitation Surface Air Temperature Precipitable Water Zonal Surface Stress Low Cloud Cover Total Cloud Cover Evaporation Sensible Heat Flux Surface Net Shortwave Surface Net Heat Flux	link
	GFS verified against RAOBS (+/-) Time series of GFS fit to RAOBS (+/-) Timeseries fits to RAOBS Timeseries fits to ACARS Timeseries fits to AIRCFT GFS SSI and forecast fits to RAOBS for last 7 days spatial bias maps for different regions (+/-) Horizontal bias fits to RAOBS Horizontal RMSE fits to RAOBS vertical profile bias maps aerially averaged for different regions GFS SSI and forecast fits to RAOBS for calendar months (time series, spatial and vertical bias maps) GFS SSI data distribution plots (shows gaps in the initial analysis which may affect model forecast performance) GFS SSI data dump counts (how much data was included from each type used in the SSI analysis) FNL AVN Few or no points may indicate potential problems with model forecast performance.  The type of problems may be anticipated from the type of data excluded.	link
	Comparison of GFS output grid data to observations (+/-) Global Model Verification Documentation for global model verification and plotting Climate anomaly (development) Ensemble verifications Calibrated QPF/CQPF (new) NCEP and CMC's QPF/PQPF (new) NCEP and CMC's PQPF Verification (new) Ensemble 6-hr PQPF types (new) Ensemble based RMOP Evaluation of GFS, ens. based QPF Evaluation of GFS specific humidity WGNE project (verification of precipitation) GFS_EXP (verification of precipitation) GRIDTOBS verifications and statistics NAOS global experiment results Term definitions Recent publications	link
	Monthly Archive of NCEP/EMC Model Performance Maps	link
	WAFC Washington Performance Indicators	link
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RECENT REVIEWS	2009 Review of GFS Forecast Skill	ppt
	August 2010 vs August 2009 - A look at the first full month of new GFS	ppt
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PAST	Long-Term Performance Statistics for Multiple NWP Models	link
	GFS Performance 1984-2006 Against Reanalysis	ppt
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EXPERIMENTAL	Verifications of GFS parallel experiments	link
	Experimental GFS near-surface performance Experimental meteograms for surface and near surface forecast parameters, and verifications of forecast against observations over the U.S. Tropical system performance monitoring pages: Track status Ensemble track status 5-day track forecast status

NOAA / National Weather Service National Centers for Environmental Prediction Environmental Modeling Center NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction (NCWCP) 5830 University Research Court College Park, MD 20740 Page Author: EMC Webmaster Page generated:Monday, 18-Feb-2013 2:23:06 UTC	Disclaimer Credits Glossary Privacy Policy About Us Career Opportunities