To better understand what could happen to sites and materials stored around the Sound and to help decision-makers identify a range of options for dealing with future changes, Steinhoff and other members of Office of Response and Restoration mounted an effort to build a computer-based tool for visualizing future changes. Building on their vision to show people what resources were at risk, they began the task of compiling and preparing an extensive suite of data and code. The team named the tool the Climate Assessment and Proactive Response Initiative, or CAPRI.

To incorporate realistic views of the future into the tool, the development team needed to build on a foundation of valid climate forecast data. CAPRI’s developers could obtain global-scale data from Washington state agencies and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), but they needed more detail than these projections offered. The team sought assistance from the University of Washington’s Climate Impacts Group, researchers who have expertise in downscaling global-scale climate models to get a more detailed picture of how conditions might change across a region. The two groups worked together to come up with a way for CAPRI to simulate future conditions specific to the Pacific Northwest. “They brought regional-scale detail to what was formerly a broad-brush picture painted by the IPCC,” says Steinhoff. “These data allow us to distinguish between changes projected for different areas across the region.”

CAPRI’s development team also approached the National Wildlife Federation to seek their expertise. This group had developed sophisticated computer code that could simulate the major processes that change shorelines and wetland habitats as sea levels rise. Through a process of converting and massaging the code, the groups found a way to incorporate the function into CAPRI. The collaboration resulted in the ability for CAPRI to generate dynamic representations of changes to the coast over time.

Next, the Climate Impacts Group provided additional data that would make CAPRI more comprehensive. The group contributed valuable data on coastal habitats and marine life, including salmon, seabirds, and other vulnerable species.

To represent the risks to resources through out the Sound, NOAA staff prepared data that describe locations and characteristics of state- and EPA-led cleanups, oil storage facilities, and other sites that could become sources of land or water pollution.

“We also identified and prepared data on commercial and recreational fishing, beach access, and public parks,” Steinhoff explains. “We wanted to be able to pinpoint the broad array of important places that are close to potential sources of contamination.”

Putting CAPRI to Work
With the range of data and code prepared and plugged in, the tool is ready to reveal the relationships among climate change, potential contaminant releases, and natural and human resources. Based on the range of threats at various locations, CAPRI can calculate a combined vulnerability index for resources throughout the Sound.

This image shows CAPRI’s Facility Index for the year 2100 with a projected sea level rise of around 5 feet (1.5 meters). Risk levels indicated by this index account for the degree of toxicity of contaminants at each facility in the region as well as the likelihood of their release.

To take a look at possible futures, users enter requests in a Web-based mapping tool, which accesses the regularly updated data and code of CAPRI. The mapping tool generates color-coded maps that indicate the vulnerability of resources at 25-year intervals in the future, under two climate-change scenarios. Thus, decision makers can check the projected status of resources in 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100 for two different amounts of sea level rise.

Coastal and resource managers analyze patterns on the color-coded maps to evaluate the array of possible futures. The maps represent the complex relationships among threats and resources over time and space all in one place, enabling managers to decide when and where steps might be taken to deflect threats of inundation and contamination.

Recalling the barrels of solvent stored at the Port of Everett, Steinhoff points out, “Results from CAPRI can show Everett’s port commissioners when those barrels might be affected by flooding. The tool can also help people identify locations for storage where the materials could be considered safe through 2100.”

For planners managing the largest marina on the West Coast, CAPRI could also help identify effective measures for protecting the Port of Everett’s docks, piers, and pilings from a range of threats. CAPRI can also show what might happen to nearby coastal habitats at the mouth of the Snohomish River if waste site cleanups in the area are not adequately addressed.

Projections from CAPRI are not only helpful for safeguarding the so-called ‘built’ environment, Steinhoff points out. They may also be valuable in guiding efforts to restore fish and wildlife habitats.

For example, in 2009, federal planners and members of the Nisqually Tribe embarked on what has become the region’s largest coastal wetland restoration project. After months of preparation at the Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge, a historic system of dikes was removed, allowing seawater to once again flow across 762 acres of prime wetland habitat. Project planners are hopeful that this action will give endangered Puget Sound salmon a way to reach much-needed spawning habitats, and also offer a safe environment for the hatchlings to feed and grow before heading out to sea.

“It’s a fabulous project, but we don’t know for certain how the impacts of climate change will affect the restoration effort,” says Steinhoff. “Even CAPRI’s most moderate climate-change scenario indicates that shoreline along the refuge could be re-shaped over the next 50 to 100 years, which could reduce the area of regained habitat. After seeing CAPRI’s results, project planners might choose to pursue efforts to enhance additional shallow-water habitats within the refuge, to maintain longer-term benefits.”

Applying CAPRI in Other Places
What might the capabilities of CAPRI reveal in other places? Steinhoff believes that insights and experience gained from the Puget Sound model might also help people manage potentially hazardous materials in Alaska, for instance. Over the past five decades, warming in that state has occurred at an average of more than twice the rate of any other part of the country. In addition to sea level rise, thawing of permafrost—the permanently frozen layer of soil that underlies much of the state—increases the risk of contamination events from ruptured pipelines that carry gas and oil. Steinhoff anticipates that the opportunity to use CAPRI to visualize the unique risks to resources across their state could help Alaskans set priorities for addressing threats related to climate change.

Steinhoff also sees potential for CAPRI to help identify vulnerable resources along the Gulf Coast. Threats posed by the twin troubles of sea level rise and subsiding land in that part of the country are compounded by the potential for damage from hurricanes and storm surges. Steinhoff notes, “In general, coastal managers along the Gulf are aware of the threats they face. The increased awareness of resource vulnerability that comes with using a tool like CAPRI could help them choose proactive solutions to protect resources before continuing changes reduce the practicality of some options.”

The potential of CAPRI is not lost on Joanna Ekrem, a policy analyst with the Washington Department of Ecology in Olympia. “Right now, several state agencies are crafting an Integrated Climate Change Response Strategy for submission to the Washington Legislature in December 2011,” Ekrem says. “The CAPRI tool will provide us with a picture of the contamination levels that could accompany sea level rise. Having a better sense of the vulnerability of our coastal areas will help us protect sensitive ecosystems and preserve the shorelines of the state.”

Though it may eventually be useful in a variety of locations, CAPRI is currently only available to coastal managers in Puget Sound. As the model for representing physical processes becomes more robust and the output is refined, the Office of Recovery and Restoration plans to introduce the tool to partners across the nation. If the community of coastal managers judges that CAPRI’s projections and visualizations have sufficient value to assist them in their planning, the tool may be released formally, for implementation in new locations, and for use by the public.

Steinhoff recognizes that the fundamental value of vulnerability maps from CAPRI is their ability to show people exactly what is at risk and when that risk will increase. “Ultimately,” she says, “time and tides will continue marching on. It will be up to coastal and resource managers to use what they learn from CAPRI to decide which resources should be protected and how.”

David Gordon is the science writer for Washington Sea Grant.

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For further information:
The Climate Assessment and Proactive Response Initiative (CAPRI) Project homepage provides an overview of the project’s analytical framework, example output from CAPRI for the Snohomish Estuary, and contact information for project personnel.

The Nisqually Delta Restoration site offers maps, photographs, and references related to the ongoing effort to assist in recovery of Puget Sound salmon and wildlife populations. The site is an unofficial informational outlet for groups working within the Nisqually Delta Restoration partnership.