Over the past 40 years, federal revenues have ranged from nearly 21 percent of GDP in fiscal year 2000 to just over 15 percent in fiscal years 2009, 2010, and 2011, averaging roughly 18 percent of GDP over that span. Under current law, revenues will rise significantly from their recent low relative to GDP over the next few years as the economy recovers from the recession and the tax reductions originally enacted in 2001, 2003, and 2009 expire. CBO analyzes the budgetary and economic effects of various features of the current tax code and proposals for changes in the tax code.
Taxes
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The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023Feb 2013 - Under current law, federal debt will stay at historically high levels relative to the economy, CBO projects. Economic growth will be slow in 2013 but pick up thereafter. Even so, the unemployment rate will be above 7.5 percent through 2014.
Effective Marginal Tax Rates for Low- and Moderate-Income WorkersNov 2012 - Effective marginal tax rates among low- and moderate-income workers are about 30 percent, on average, with about one-third of that rate stemming from the federal income tax, more than a third from federal payroll taxes, and the remainder from state income taxes and the phaseout of SNAP benefits.
Taxing Businesses Through the Individual Income TaxDec 2012 - Business activity subject to individual rather than corporate income tax has grown, reducing federal revenues but probably promoting investment.
The Distribution of Household Income and Federal Taxes, 2008 and 2009Jul 2012 - The recent recession has had a substantial impact on income, the amount of taxes owed, and average tax rates. Changes in households’ before-tax income and average tax rates in 2008 and 2009 were substantial and differed markedly across the income distribution.
Trends in the Distribution of Household Income Between 1979 and 2007Oct 2011 - CBO's analysis examines the distribution of household income before and after government transfers and federal taxes, and it reports the contribution of various income components (such as wages and salaries, capital income, and business income) to the distribution of market income.
Refundable Tax CreditsJan 2013 - The number and cost of refundable tax credits have grown considerably since 1975. Federal costs (in 2013 dollars) peaked at $238 billion in 2008, but costs will fall to $149 billion in 2013, CBO projects, before reaching $213 billion in 2021.
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CBO Testifies on the Budget and Economic Outlook
blog postFebruary 15, 2013Letter to the Honorable Dave Camp Regarding CBO's Report Titled Options for Taxing U.S. Multinational Corporations
reportFebruary 15, 2013Testimony on the Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023
reportFebruary 13, 2013Testimony on the Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023
reportFebruary 12, 2013Growth in Means-Tested Programs and Tax Credits for Low-Income Households
reportFebruary 11, 2013The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023
reportFebruary 5, 2013Individual Income Tax Receipts and the Individual Tax Base—February 2013 Baseline
data or technical informationFebruary 5, 2013Estimates of Potential GDP and the Related Unemployment Rate, January 1991 to February 2013
data or technical informationFebruary 5, 2013
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