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Security Systems Analysis Application

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is developing policy and supporting deployment of a number of technologies to protect the U.S. from a broad range of chemical, biological, nuclear, and other threats directed at many potential targets. We are supporting a number of efforts to design and analyze countermeasure systems that protect population and infrastructure targets. Some examples of recent projects include:

• We developed a risk-based, scenario-driven performance evaluation methodology to estimate the effectiveness of countermeasure architectures against a suite of design-basis threats.
• We developed game-theoretic models for evaluation of attacks on infrastructure networks. The models identify optimal network hardening strategies to deploy against an attacker given a fixed budget for the countermeasures.
• We developed a suite of Monte Carlo discrete event simulation models to predict the impacts of implementation of the US-VISIT biometrics-based passenger inspection program. The suite of models includes preprocessing algorithms that query multiple DHS databases to filter and match records needed to drive the simulation models.
• We developed physical and statistical models to characterize performance of radiation detectors deployed at the U.S. border and other venues. The receiver operator characteristic curves are used to design a countermeasure architecture with the appropriate tradeoff between detection probability and nuisance-alarm rates.
• We developed Markov chain models to evaluate the effectiveness of randomized surveillance procedures.
• We developed supply-chain, exposure, and health-care logistics models to evaluate the risk associated with food contamination scenarios. The models provide an end-to-end representation of the attack scenario and provide a platform for evaluation of technologies and policy alternatives.

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Mike O'Brien
(925) 423-8028

Melinda Lane
(925) 422-0658

O'Brien, M. P., Edmunds, T. A., and Lane, M. G. (2004) Primer Workbook for Vulnerability Assessment Fundamentals Course, UCRL-AM-206113.

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July 3, 2012